Actionable Adjustments Inspired by First-Half Busts

Yesterday, I examined hitters who owners missed on preseason and what could be done to prevent such mistakes in the future. Today, the underachievers go under the microscope. In my previous article, I used Paul Sporer’s “All First Half” articles for reference. With no underachieving articles out yet, I will look for players with differences in ADP and current rank using our auction calculator.

Extended Injury Stays

Daniel Murphy

I lamented last offseason about missing out on J.D. Martinez’s great 2017 season. I didn’t want to miss out again and was willing to take a chance on Daniel Murphy’s discount.

When I created his projection, I account for six weeks off but it was on the short side. Additionally, once he returned, he wasn’t productive for a few weeks but has a .859 OPS in July.

I’m not sure how to handle this situation differently. I’m wondering if I should assume expected time missed plus 50% more for an extended stay plus ramp up time. I think I have more of a tolerance when dealing with injured players than other owners so they may want to extend the missed time. It comes down to if the owner’s regret on missing out on J.D. Martinez’s is more than rostering the Daniel Murphy’s.

Also see: Josh Donaldson

Defining Chronic Injuries

Yoenis Cespedes

I’ve studied hitter injuries and have found them not to be predictive except in the case of chronic injuries (e.g. David Wright’s back). Cespedes didn’t have that one injured body part but many lower body injuries.

Over the last three seasons, Cespedes has been on the DL for quadricep, hamstring (x2), and hip injuries. Additionally, he’s been day-to-day for many of the same injuries. None of them where some an unexpected event like being hit-by-a-pitch or fielding. They were from just running which is a major part of the game. I’m going to start lumping Cespedes clones into those with chronic injuries.

Another injury group is the high effort injury clan led by stepbrothers Bryce Harper and A.J. Pollock. These hitters just don’t seem to know when to dial it back a bit and stay on the field. All their injuries and can be traced back to running the bases or making diving catches. While an instance or two shouldn’t put a hitter into the chronic injury group, there is a threshold and for now, individual owners need to set their own risk tolerance levels.

Also see: Miguel Cabrera

Sucking Risk

Domingo Santana

In the sister article to this one, I found some high projected strikeout hitters (Javier Baez and Trevor Story) who’ve excelled this season. While some high strikeout hitters post a high BABIP, when that BABIP shrinks, the person is unplayable in fantasy and real-life.

With this player type (and possibly others), I need to bake in a plate appearance risk percentage. For example, coming into the season, owners may have expected Santana to have 450 plate appearances. His hitting profile may place his possible demotion rates around 10% (making up numbers for now), so his projected plate appearances may drop to 405.

It’s a little late into the season for a full study on these players and their demotion chances but it is on the top of my offseason to-do list.

Also see: Chris Davis, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton

Accumulators in Bad Lineups

Eric Hosmer

The main driving force behind Hosmer’s recent fantasy value was hitting near the top of the Royals lineup. While the overall lineup had its holes, he was surrounded by good hitters to increase his Run and RBI chances. He no longer has a decent lineup around him and he may be lucky to get 150 Runs and RBI after being over 180 the past three seasons.

The opposite of Hosmer’s situation is Nick Markakis. While beating his projections some, he’s entrenched in the middle of an improved Braves lineups.

Avoiding accumulators on bad teams is as simple as just finding them and make sure no premium is paid. Additionally, targeting boring hitters in decent lineups could provide decent value.

Mid-30’s Power Decline

Joey Votto

Major league baseball gave new life to 30-year-old power hitters a few years back when they “juiced” the ball. Normally power hitters see their power decline at age-30. Votto was one such hitter. Edwin Encarnacion was another.

Both were seeing a power decline and then 2015 happened.

Both hitters have enjoyed the boost from the live ball but now are seeing their power tail off below 2014 levels. The decline may even be more drastic with the ball possibly losing some of its juice.

Age and a dead ball may destroy some hitter’s fantasy value with little upside hope. This drop is something I’ll need to study in the offseason and possibly age some older hitters more than the standard projections.

Also see: Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Abreu