A New Era for Yusei Kikuchi May Be About to Begin

When we size up our weekly or daily pitching matchups, most of us probably get a nervous feeling when thinking about starting our hurlers against the Yankees, Red Sox, Twins or Dodgers. Lately, the Indians have become one of those feared teams, too. But it’s been occurring to me that it’s not much fun owning pitchers who ply their craft in the American League West.

Of course, there are the always-tough Astros, but they are not alone as difficult matchups. Going back to June 1, the Angels and Mariners have the two lowest O-Swing rates in the majors, and the Athletics and Astros rank sixth and seventh. The Astros and Angels have the lowest SwStr%, and the Mariners have the 10th-lowest. The A’s, Angels and Astros are in the top 10 for ISO. While the Rangers lag behind their division-mates in these categories, they — along with the A’s and Astros — rank among the eight teams with the highest hard contact rates.

The Astros’ aces Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are exempt from any concerns about matchups, whether in their own division or elsewhere. Lance Lynn has been giving up more home runs per nine innings against AL West opponents (1.2) than against other teams (0.6), but his intradivision ERA of 3.73 is nearly half a run lower than his ERA against other squads (4.15). Mike Minor will almost certainly be better off in another division (and he could be within the next week), but he has managed a more-than-respectable 3.42 ERA in the AL West, as compared to his 2.56 ERA versus everyone else, the latter of which has been helped by an incredibly generous 89.0 percent strand rate.

One pitcher who is unlikely to get dealt this year is Yusei Kikuchi. The Mariners signed him to a three-year, $43 million deal, and his return for his first season has been underwhelming so far. Kikuchi rolls into Friday night’s start against the Tigers with four wins, a 5.37 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP and 79 strikeouts in 107.1 innings (16.6 percent K%). Things have really spiraled over his last 10 starts, which have produced a 7.85 ERA, a 2.00 WHIP, a 12.9 percent K% and 14 home runs in 47 innings.

The most obvious explanation for Kikuchi’s two-month-long slide is that he is not throwing as hard as he was earlier in the season. He averaged 93.3 mph on his fastball over his first 11 starts but only 92.2 mph since then. Kikuchi started throwing fewer pitches between starts several weeks ago, but there has been no discernible rebound in velocity.

There could be another explanation for his prolonged slump. Kikuchi has not had the easiest schedule, even when things were going better for him, but during this 10-start stretch, only three of his outings have come against teams outside of the AL West. One of those was against the Twins, and Kikuchi had a decent start, allowing one run over five innings. His other two non-divisional starts — at home against the Royals and Orioles — were among his three least imposing matchups of the season (the third one being his April 5 start at the White Sox). Kikuchi notched a quality start against the Orioles, in spite of a season-high five walks. Against the Royals, he got clobbered for six runs on nine hits and two walks over five innings. Perhaps not coincidentally, these two starts featured the two lowest recordings of average fastball velocity for any of his starts. At 91.2 and 91.3 mph, they were aberrant, even for this recent stretch.

Those missed opportunities for a rebound aside, Kikuchi has put together a decent track record against non-AL West teams. Over 59.2 innings against opponents from other divisions, he has compiled a 3.77 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and a 19.7 percent K%. Those ratios are similar to those posted by Wade Miley, Marcus Stroman, Merrill Kelly and Jose Quintana this season. Against divisional opponents, Kikuchi has a 7.36 ERA, a 1.87 WHIP and a 13.4 percent K%. While he has made 11 of his total 21 starts within the division, they total up to just 47.2 innings, as each of his eight shortest starts has come against a divisional opponent.

As mentioned above, Kikuchi’s next start is against the Tigers. While it is hard to know how the Mariners might manage his workload going forward, each of his last six starts has been made with four days of rest, and Friday night’s will be as well. If he stays on that schedule, he will make seven starts outside the division from here on out. In addition to his upcoming start versus the Tigers, he would pitch against the Rays twice, the Yankees, Reds and Pirates, and the Tigers (again). If Scott Servais tinkers with his rotation, Kikuchi could have an opportunity to face the Padres, Blue Jays, White Sox and/or Orioles. As it stands, though, he would have to oppose the Astros three times and the Rangers once. He also lines up to start against the A’s on the final day of the season, though skipping him would be an easy way to limit his innings.

While Kikuchi is not exactly on Easy Street the rest of the way, the schedule offers a few more breaks than it has up to this point. The post-deadline Reds, Pirates, Tigers and Rangers could also be less imposing teams that they are currently. In any league where someone like Kelly or Quintana is viable, it would make sense to try Kikuchi as a streaming option. Now is the best time to add him, either via trade or FAAB, before he gets too deep into the easier portion of his schedule.