A Look at the Top 5 ISO Surgers

On Saturday, I took a look at the top five decliners in isolated slugging percentage and tried to determine whether any would rebound in 2012. Today I check in on the top five surgers in the metric. Let’s see if any have a chance to hold onto their power gains next season.

Asdrubal Cabrera started off hot in April and May, but hasn’t cooled off to drastically over the last three months. Amazingly, his ISO has remained with the narrowest of ranges between .170 and .172 during each of those three previous months (including August). Talk about consistency. Cabrera never showed or hinted at this kind of power in the minors and his HR/FB ratio during his Major League career peaked at just 6.7%, so this season’s 13.1% mark is quite the surprise. Another factor leading to the power outburst is a career best FB%. Oddly, he has posted the highest O-Swing% of his career as well, which normally should not correlate to an increase in power. With the acknowledgement that Hit Tracker data isn’t a perfect way to predict future home run totals or even measure the luck inherent in current totals, it is worth mentioning that Cabrera is tied for second in baseball in “Just Enough” home runs. He will only be 26 next season, so just based on progression due to age, some of the power spike is probably for real. But, I would be surprised if he came close to matching this power again next year.

Alex Avila jumped straight from Double-A to the Majors in 2009, and not surprisingly, he struggled in 2010 during his first extended taste with the Tigers. This year, his HR/FB ratio has jumped from 9.0% last year to 14.8%. In addition, he has increased his FB% to over 40%, walks at a well above average clip, and posted a .185 ISO as a 22-year old in Double-A in 2009. In addition, he is second on the Tigers for longest home run hit at 450 feet and has only hit four “Just Enough” home runs. Avila is no .300 hitter as his BABIP will absolutely decline from its lofty .371 level, but the power looks to be for real.

Just when we thought he was nearing his death, Lance Berkman does this. Amazingly, this is the highest ISO he has posted since 2006, fourth highest of his career, and the third highest HR/FB ratio since that data has been available. A FB% at the second highest mark of his career has helped his ISO a bit, so that is likely to drop below 40% again, hurting his power slightly. It is hard to consider this a fluke just given the career Berkman has had, but it would be foolish to expect a repeat heading into his age 36 season. Even if he does near a repeat, the odds of him holding up for a full-season and even collecting 500 at-bats look slim. He may be a poor risk in drafts next year.

Welcome back the J.J. Hardy with power. Where’d you go in 2009 and 2010? If it was injury related, it appears Hardy is finally healthy again. His HR/FB ratio is at a career high, but not drastically, as he posted marks between 12.0% and 14.1% from 2006-2008, whereas this year it sits just a bit higher at 16.9%. He has also upped his FB%, which is a concern since it may drop back a bit towards previous levels. Oriole Park has been excellent for right-handed home run hitters, so his home digs are likely having a positive impact on Hardy’s power as well. I think his power spike is mostly for real, but a drop in FB% likely means a marginal hit to his HR/AB ratio next year.

Russell Martin the latest beneficiary of Yankees magic? He hadn’t posted an ISO above .116 or HR/FB ratio above 9.4% since 2007. Aside from the obvious huge spike in HR/FB ratio, he has also hit the highest percentage of fly balls. I would imagine the ballpark switch is having quite a positive impact as well. Martin will still be just 29 years old next season and has shown some decent power before, though of course not to this degree. It would be unreasonable to expect a repeat next year, but he is clearly not the same hitter he was when he hits just 12 homers over the last two seasons in Los Angeles.