A Late Primer on MiLB Infield Fly Ball Rate (IFFB%)
The impetus for this post arises from a Tweet by our very own Al Melchior:
Holy BABIP, Willie Calhoun pops out a lot! pic.twitter.com/BDyHtfJsZJ
— Al Melchior (@almelchiorBB) January 3, 2018
This is, in no way, meant to shame Melchior; if anything, he has afforded us a valuable learning opportunity, especially because it became clear to me there likely exists a large swath of FanGraphs users who routinely misinterpret the relatively new Minor League batted ball data. (Through no fault of their own, by the way. The new data didn’t come with a user’s guide or anything. We have been left to our own devices, and it’s easy to assume such clean data comes without warts.)
Melchior’s Tweet isn’t the first time I’ve seen comments like his. I’ve seen similar disappointed comments about hitter infield fly ball rates (IFFB%), and I’ve seen equally-and-oppositely excited comments about pitcher pop-up rates (as recently as a few days ago), generally all as they relate to batting average on balls in play (BABIP). I quickly picked up on this discrepancy paging through MiLB batted ball leaderboards, noticing the majority of hitters were hitting pop-ups in the double-digits.
The best play when interpreting Minor League batted ball data is to index it. The following tables present (1) the average IFFB% by league and year, and (2) those same rates, but indexed.
| Season | MLB | AAA | AA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 9.7% | 19.8% | 20.7% |
| 2014 | 9.6% | 19.5% | 19.4% |
| 2015 | 9.5% | 20.3% | 21.5% |
| 2016 | 9.7% | 20.6% | 20.9% |
| 2017 | 9.6% | 20.2% | 21.2% |
| Season | MLB | AAA | AA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 1.00 | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| 2014 | 1.00 | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| 2015 | 1.00 | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| 2016 | 1.00 | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| 2017 | 1.00 | 0.48 | 0.45 |
(I neglected to venture farther down the Minor League ladder for simplicity’s sake.)
Interpretation: use indexed rates like a multiplier, e.g., 2013 IFFB%:
- MLB: 9.7% * 1.00 = 9.7% IFFB%
- AAA: 19.8% * 0.49 = 9.7% MLB-equivalent IFFB%
- AA: 20.7% * 0.47 = 9.7% MLB-equivalent IFFB%
However, you may have noticed an easier shorthand methodology, so I’ll suggest doing this instead: simply divide the MiLB IFFB% by two. It’s not perfect, but it’ll be dang close, and it errs on the side of caution (i.e., very slightly inflating the MLB-equivalent IFFB%).
That the MiLB rates are consistent not only year to year but also between levels suggests this is an appropriate way to digest the data. However, there’s an outside chance the reason why infield fly rates are so high in the minors and so low in the majors is selection bias: the best players can simply hack it, and that’s why they turn into productive big-leaguers. To be clear, this would essentially boil Major League success down to being able to not pop up — a gross oversimplification.
I tested the theory anyway, just to put it to rest. Now, there’s no easy or right way to do this; players jump back and forth between the minors, and not everyone produces Minor League sample sizes large enough to feel confident in their reliability. To mitigate any issues related to this, I limited my sample to players who, in the last five years, recorded 300 plate appearances at both a particular Minor League level (e.g., Triple-A) and the Major League level, using the most recent sample for each. For example, Jorge Soler’s 2017 stint at Triple-A is compared to his 2015 stint with the Cubs.
| Player Name | MiLB Level | MiLB Year | MiLB IFFB% | MLB Year | MLB IFFB% | MLB xIFFB% | IFFB% ─ indexed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Vogt | AAA | 2013 | 16.7% | 2017 | 19.4% | 8.2% | -11.2% |
| Chris Owings | AAA | 2013 | 8.5% | 2017 | 15.3% | 4.2% | -11.1% |
| Jon Singleton | AAA | 2016 | 21.6% | 2014 | 20.7% | 10.1% | -10.6% |
| Carlos Asuaje | AAA | 2016 | 12.2% | 2017 | 15.9% | 5.7% | -10.2% |
| Cheslor Cuthbert | AAA | 2015 | 18.3% | 2016 | 17.8% | 8.6% | -9.2% |
| Pedro Alvarez | AAA | 2017 | 16.4% | 2016 | 15.9% | 7.8% | -8.1% |
| Adam Engel | AA | 2016 | 29.5% | 2017 | 21.3% | 13.9% | -7.4% |
| Donovan Solano | AAA | 2017 | 11.1% | 2014 | 12.7% | 5.3% | -7.4% |
| Sandy Leon | AA | 2013 | 23.5% | 2017 | 18.7% | 11.5% | -7.2% |
| Yangervis Solarte | AAA | 2013 | 21.1% | 2017 | 17.4% | 10.3% | -7.1% |
| Jose Peraza | AAA | 2016 | 13.3% | 2017 | 13.2% | 6.2% | -7.0% |
| James Jones | AAA | 2016 | 11.5% | 2014 | 12.0% | 5.4% | -6.6% |
| Leonys Martin | AAA | 2017 | 10.0% | 2016 | 11.3% | 4.8% | -6.5% |
| Nomar Mazara | AA | 2015 | 5.4% | 2017 | 8.8% | 2.5% | -6.3% |
| Arismendy Alcantara | AAA | 2016 | 11.8% | 2014 | 11.8% | 5.5% | -6.3% |
| Josh Bell | AAA | 2016 | 12.0% | 2017 | 11.8% | 5.6% | -6.2% |
| Paul DeJong | AA | 2016 | 16.2% | 2017 | 13.5% | 7.6% | -5.9% |
| Aaron Altherr | AA | 2014 | 12.4% | 2017 | 11.9% | 6.1% | -5.8% |
| Matt Chapman | AA | 2016 | 23.4% | 2017 | 16.8% | 11.0% | -5.8% |
| Chris Colabello | AAA | 2017 | 7.6% | 2015 | 9.4% | 3.6% | -5.8% |
| Mark Canha | AAA | 2017 | 18.3% | 2015 | 14.3% | 8.7% | -5.6% |
| Jurickson Profar | AAA | 2017 | 16.3% | 2016 | 13.3% | 7.8% | -5.5% |
| Ryan Schimpf | AA | 2015 | 20.2% | 2016 | 15.0% | 9.5% | -5.5% |
| Jake Marisnick | AAA | 2014 | 21.0% | 2016 | 15.7% | 10.3% | -5.4% |
| Robinson Chirinos | AAA | 2013 | 20.3% | 2017 | 15.3% | 9.9% | -5.4% |
| Kevin Pillar | AAA | 2014 | 17.4% | 2017 | 13.9% | 8.5% | -5.4% |
| Jake Smolinski | AAA | 2013 | 22.1% | 2016 | 16.1% | 10.8% | -5.3% |
| Travis Snider | AAA | 2017 | 15.7% | 2014 | 12.7% | 7.5% | -5.2% |
| Pete Kozma | AAA | 2016 | 25.4% | 2013 | 16.8% | 11.9% | -4.9% |
| Hunter Renfroe | AAA | 2016 | 22.0% | 2017 | 15.1% | 10.3% | -4.8% |
| Brendan Ryan | AAA | 2017 | 26.4% | 2013 | 17.3% | 12.6% | -4.7% |
| Oswaldo Arcia | AAA | 2017 | 13.2% | 2014 | 10.7% | 6.3% | -4.4% |
| Tommy Pham | AAA | 2014 | 5.3% | 2017 | 7.0% | 2.6% | -4.4% |
| Ketel Marte | AAA | 2017 | 16.7% | 2016 | 12.2% | 8.0% | -4.2% |
| Blake Swihart | AA | 2014 | 16.2% | 2015 | 12.1% | 7.9% | -4.2% |
| Justin Bour | AAA | 2014 | 15.7% | 2017 | 11.5% | 7.7% | -3.8% |
| Cody Asche | AAA | 2017 | 16.5% | 2015 | 11.6% | 7.9% | -3.7% |
| Steve Lombardozzi | AAA | 2017 | 11.6% | 2013 | 9.1% | 5.5% | -3.6% |
| Kolten Wong | AAA | 2013 | 15.1% | 2017 | 10.9% | 7.4% | -3.5% |
| Ronald Torreyes | AAA | 2014 | 17.6% | 2017 | 12.0% | 8.6% | -3.4% |
| Johnny Giavotella | AAA | 2017 | 12.7% | 2016 | 9.3% | 6.1% | -3.2% |
| Kevin Kiermaier | AA | 2013 | 18.3% | 2017 | 12.2% | 9.0% | -3.2% |
| Jorge Bonifacio | AAA | 2016 | 20.6% | 2017 | 12.9% | 9.7% | -3.2% |
| Michael Taylor | AA | 2014 | 10.6% | 2017 | 8.4% | 5.2% | -3.2% |
| Tyler Naquin | AAA | 2017 | 10.3% | 2016 | 7.9% | 4.9% | -3.0% |
| Joc Pederson | AAA | 2014 | 17.1% | 2017 | 11.3% | 8.4% | -2.9% |
| Billy Burns | AAA | 2017 | 42.3% | 2016 | 23.0% | 20.2% | -2.8% |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | AAA | 2015 | 12.1% | 2017 | 8.5% | 5.7% | -2.8% |
| Gorkys Hernandez | AAA | 2016 | 15.3% | 2017 | 9.7% | 7.2% | -2.5% |
| Cody Bellinger | AA | 2016 | 12.6% | 2017 | 8.4% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| Jose Martinez | AAA | 2016 | 10.9% | 2017 | 7.5% | 5.1% | -2.4% |
| Ryan Goins | AAA | 2014 | 15.5% | 2017 | 9.8% | 7.6% | -2.2% |
| Wilmer Flores | AAA | 2013 | 17.4% | 2017 | 10.6% | 8.5% | -2.1% |
| Andrew Romine | AAA | 2013 | 16.9% | 2017 | 10.3% | 8.3% | -2.0% |
| Miguel Rojas | AA | 2013 | 28.4% | 2017 | 15.9% | 13.9% | -2.0% |
| Trey Mancini | AAA | 2016 | 11.5% | 2017 | 7.4% | 5.4% | -2.0% |
| Joey Gallo | AAA | 2016 | 21.2% | 2017 | 11.8% | 10.0% | -1.8% |
| Bradley Zimmer | AA | 2016 | 13.6% | 2017 | 8.2% | 6.4% | -1.8% |
| Ben Gamel | AAA | 2016 | 16.1% | 2017 | 9.2% | 7.6% | -1.6% |
| Nick Franklin | AAA | 2014 | 14.2% | 2013 | 8.6% | 7.0% | -1.6% |
| Javier Baez | AAA | 2015 | 16.9% | 2017 | 9.4% | 7.9% | -1.5% |
| J.P. Arencibia | AAA | 2016 | 25.0% | 2013 | 13.2% | 11.7% | -1.5% |
| Jonathan Villar | AAA | 2015 | 26.3% | 2017 | 13.8% | 12.3% | -1.5% |
| C.J. Cron | AA | 2013 | 26.8% | 2017 | 14.5% | 13.1% | -1.4% |
| Devon Travis | AA | 2014 | 17.4% | 2016 | 9.9% | 8.5% | -1.4% |
| Francisco Lindor | AA | 2014 | 11.1% | 2017 | 6.8% | 5.4% | -1.4% |
| Dustin Ackley | AAA | 2017 | 16.7% | 2014 | 9.3% | 8.0% | -1.3% |
| Domonic Brown | AAA | 2016 | 22.6% | 2014 | 11.9% | 10.6% | -1.3% |
| Casey McGehee | AAA | 2016 | 17.0% | 2014 | 9.2% | 8.0% | -1.2% |
| Adam Rosales | AAA | 2014 | 20.7% | 2017 | 11.3% | 10.2% | -1.1% |
| Maikel Franco | AAA | 2014 | 30.9% | 2017 | 16.3% | 15.2% | -1.1% |
| Danny Santana | AA | 2013 | 17.7% | 2014 | 9.8% | 8.7% | -1.1% |
| Will Venable | AAA | 2016 | 29.1% | 2015 | 14.8% | 13.7% | -1.1% |
| Stephen Piscotty | AAA | 2015 | 15.1% | 2017 | 8.2% | 7.1% | -1.1% |
| Adam Frazier | AA | 2015 | 4.5% | 2017 | 3.2% | 2.1% | -1.1% |
| Willson Contreras | AA | 2015 | 18.8% | 2017 | 9.9% | 8.8% | -1.1% |
| Jorge Soler | AAA | 2017 | 23.5% | 2015 | 12.2% | 11.2% | -1.0% |
| Austin Hedges | AAA | 2016 | 31.3% | 2017 | 15.7% | 14.7% | -1.0% |
| James McCann | AAA | 2014 | 15.9% | 2017 | 8.8% | 7.8% | -1.0% |
| Trevor Story | AA | 2015 | 19.5% | 2017 | 10.1% | 9.2% | -0.9% |
| Marcus Semien | AAA | 2014 | 18.8% | 2017 | 10.1% | 9.2% | -0.9% |
| Preston Tucker | AAA | 2017 | 26.2% | 2015 | 13.3% | 12.5% | -0.8% |
| Paulo Orlando | AAA | 2014 | 18.8% | 2016 | 10.0% | 9.2% | -0.8% |
| Eddie Rosario | AA | 2014 | 13.3% | 2017 | 7.3% | 6.5% | -0.8% |
| Brock Holt | AAA | 2013 | 10.5% | 2016 | 5.9% | 5.1% | -0.8% |
| Gregory Polanco | AAA | 2014 | 19.0% | 2017 | 10.0% | 9.3% | -0.7% |
| Cory Spangenberg | AA | 2014 | 20.6% | 2017 | 10.7% | 10.1% | -0.6% |
| Ender Inciarte | AA | 2013 | 15.4% | 2017 | 8.1% | 7.5% | -0.6% |
| Whit Merrifield | AAA | 2016 | 14.6% | 2017 | 7.4% | 6.9% | -0.5% |
| Jimmy Paredes | AAA | 2014 | 13.4% | 2015 | 7.1% | 6.6% | -0.5% |
| Chris Taylor | AAA | 2016 | 8.6% | 2017 | 4.5% | 4.0% | -0.5% |
| Nick Ahmed | AAA | 2014 | 25.6% | 2016 | 13.0% | 12.6% | -0.4% |
| Robbie Grossman | AAA | 2015 | 17.6% | 2017 | 8.7% | 8.3% | -0.4% |
| Jose Ramirez | AA | 2013 | 19.0% | 2017 | 9.7% | 9.3% | -0.4% |
| Adonis Garcia | AAA | 2015 | 21.3% | 2016 | 10.3% | 10.0% | -0.3% |
| Ed Lucas | AAA | 2016 | 10.5% | 2013 | 5.1% | 4.9% | -0.2% |
| Caleb Joseph | AA | 2013 | 15.2% | 2015 | 7.5% | 7.4% | -0.1% |
| Chad Pinder | AAA | 2016 | 11.0% | 2017 | 5.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| Adam Duvall | AAA | 2015 | 25.5% | 2017 | 12.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| Pedro Florimon | AAA | 2017 | 17.6% | 2013 | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| Matt Davidson | AAA | 2016 | 18.2% | 2017 | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| Steven Souza Jr. | AAA | 2014 | 14.0% | 2017 | 6.8% | 6.9% | 0.1% |
| Dansby Swanson | AA | 2016 | 13.8% | 2017 | 6.4% | 6.5% | 0.1% |
| Mitch Haniger | AAA | 2016 | 17.1% | 2017 | 7.9% | 8.0% | 0.1% |
| Jesus Aguilar | AAA | 2016 | 15.3% | 2017 | 7.0% | 7.2% | 0.2% |
| Jorge Polanco | AAA | 2016 | 22.7% | 2017 | 10.3% | 10.7% | 0.4% |
| Orlando Arcia | AAA | 2016 | 24.8% | 2017 | 11.2% | 11.6% | 0.4% |
| Logan Schafer | AAA | 2017 | 31.0% | 2013 | 14.3% | 14.8% | 0.5% |
| Joe Panik | AAA | 2014 | 16.5% | 2017 | 7.6% | 8.1% | 0.5% |
| Ben Paulsen | AAA | 2016 | 14.9% | 2015 | 6.5% | 7.0% | 0.5% |
| Mike Zunino | AAA | 2016 | 27.7% | 2017 | 12.5% | 13.0% | 0.5% |
| Yolmer Sanchez | AAA | 2014 | 13.9% | 2017 | 6.3% | 6.8% | 0.5% |
| Ezequiel Carrera | AAA | 2014 | 18.6% | 2017 | 8.5% | 9.1% | 0.6% |
| Enrique Hernandez | AAA | 2014 | 17.7% | 2017 | 8.0% | 8.7% | 0.7% |
| Eugenio Suarez | AA | 2013 | 24.2% | 2017 | 11.0% | 11.8% | 0.8% |
| Jake Lamb | AA | 2014 | 14.0% | 2017 | 6.0% | 6.9% | 0.9% |
| Nick Castellanos | AAA | 2013 | 5.2% | 2017 | 1.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Odubel Herrera | AA | 2014 | 20.0% | 2017 | 8.8% | 9.8% | 1.0% |
| Junior Lake | AAA | 2016 | 23.5% | 2014 | 10.0% | 11.0% | 1.0% |
| Max Kepler | AA | 2015 | 27.1% | 2017 | 11.5% | 12.7% | 1.2% |
| Mikie Mahtook | AAA | 2015 | 22.0% | 2017 | 8.9% | 10.3% | 1.4% |
| Brandon Guyer | AAA | 2013 | 21.2% | 2016 | 8.9% | 10.4% | 1.5% |
| Drew Stubbs | AAA | 2017 | 15.6% | 2014 | 5.7% | 7.4% | 1.7% |
| Gary Sanchez | AAA | 2016 | 27.4% | 2017 | 10.8% | 12.9% | 2.1% |
| Keon Broxton | AAA | 2015 | 12.3% | 2017 | 3.7% | 5.8% | 2.1% |
| Jose Pirela | AAA | 2014 | 23.4% | 2017 | 9.2% | 11.5% | 2.3% |
| Randal Grichuk | AAA | 2014 | 21.6% | 2017 | 8.3% | 10.6% | 2.3% |
| Domingo Santana | AAA | 2015 | 9.4% | 2017 | 2.1% | 4.4% | 2.3% |
| Darwin Barney | AAA | 2015 | 24.4% | 2017 | 9.1% | 11.5% | 2.4% |
| Billy Hamilton | AAA | 2013 | 29.9% | 2017 | 12.1% | 14.6% | 2.5% |
| George Springer | AA | 2013 | 23.5% | 2017 | 8.7% | 11.5% | 2.8% |
| Nick Williams | AAA | 2017 | 9.5% | 2017 | 1.7% | 4.5% | 2.8% |
| Scott Schebler | AAA | 2016 | 26.9% | 2017 | 9.7% | 12.6% | 2.9% |
| Hernan Perez | AAA | 2014 | 27.0% | 2017 | 10.2% | 13.2% | 3.0% |
| Delino DeShields | AA | 2014 | 27.0% | 2017 | 10.2% | 13.2% | 3.0% |
| Eric Young | AAA | 2017 | 22.7% | 2014 | 7.7% | 10.8% | 3.1% |
| Jeff Francoeur | AAA | 2014 | 23.3% | 2016 | 8.3% | 11.4% | 3.1% |
| Cesar Hernandez | AAA | 2013 | 12.9% | 2017 | 3.1% | 6.3% | 3.2% |
| Corey Dickerson | AAA | 2013 | 18.3% | 2017 | 5.7% | 9.0% | 3.3% |
| Travis Shaw | AAA | 2015 | 25.6% | 2017 | 8.6% | 12.0% | 3.4% |
| Anthony Gose | AAA | 2013 | 22.6% | 2015 | 7.4% | 11.1% | 3.7% |
| Manuel Margot | AAA | 2016 | 28.0% | 2017 | 9.4% | 13.1% | 3.7% |
| Leury Garcia | AAA | 2016 | 15.7% | 2017 | 3.6% | 7.4% | 3.8% |
| J.T. Realmuto | AA | 2014 | 18.8% | 2017 | 5.4% | 9.2% | 3.8% |
| Matt Duffy | AA | 2014 | 13.1% | 2016 | 2.5% | 6.4% | 3.9% |
| Tyler Saladino | AAA | 2014 | 23.1% | 2016 | 7.4% | 11.3% | 3.9% |
| Aledmys Diaz | AA | 2015 | 36.5% | 2017 | 13.2% | 17.1% | 3.9% |
| Corey Seager | AAA | 2015 | 17.8% | 2017 | 4.4% | 8.4% | 4.0% |
| Gordon Beckham | AAA | 2017 | 30.0% | 2014 | 10.3% | 14.3% | 4.0% |
| Danny Espinosa | AAA | 2013 | 32.9% | 2016 | 12.1% | 16.1% | 4.0% |
| Ryon Healy | AA | 2015 | 23.9% | 2017 | 7.2% | 11.2% | 4.0% |
| Kirk Nieuwenhuis | AAA | 2013 | 20.7% | 2016 | 6.0% | 10.1% | 4.1% |
| Aaron Judge | AAA | 2016 | 22.2% | 2017 | 6.2% | 10.4% | 4.2% |
| Travis Jankowski | AA | 2015 | 15.7% | 2016 | 2.9% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
| Eric Thames | AAA | 2013 | 18.3% | 2017 | 4.0% | 9.0% | 5.0% |
| Scooter Gennett | AAA | 2013 | 28.6% | 2017 | 8.5% | 14.0% | 5.5% |
| Tommy La Stella | AA | 2013 | 13.7% | 2014 | 1.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% |
| Trea Turner | AAA | 2016 | 21.7% | 2017 | 4.5% | 10.2% | 5.7% |
| Dee Gordon | AAA | 2013 | 18.1% | 2017 | 2.9% | 8.9% | 6.0% |
| Tim Beckham | AAA | 2013 | 19.8% | 2017 | 3.7% | 9.7% | 6.0% |
| Josh Rutledge | AAA | 2015 | 21.7% | 2014 | 3.9% | 10.2% | 6.3% |
| Tucker Barnhart | AA | 2013 | 23.7% | 2017 | 4.8% | 11.6% | 6.8% |
| Brandon Barnes | AAA | 2017 | 24.8% | 2014 | 5.0% | 11.8% | 6.8% |
| Matt Dominguez | AAA | 2017 | 37.7% | 2014 | 11.1% | 18.0% | 6.9% |
| Omar Infante | AAA | 2017 | 36.4% | 2015 | 10.0% | 17.3% | 7.3% |
| Emilio Bonifacio | AAA | 2016 | 24.3% | 2014 | 4.0% | 11.4% | 7.4% |
| Allen Craig | AAA | 2015 | 18.2% | 2014 | 1.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% |
| Tim Anderson | AA | 2015 | 25.0% | 2017 | 4.2% | 11.7% | 7.5% |
| Will Middlebrooks | AAA | 2017 | 26.6% | 2013 | 5.1% | 12.7% | 7.6% |
| Albert Almora Jr. | AAA | 2016 | 30.8% | 2017 | 6.8% | 14.5% | 7.7% |
| J.B. Shuck | AAA | 2017 | 31.9% | 2013 | 7.3% | 15.2% | 7.9% |
| Wilmer Difo | AA | 2016 | 30.8% | 2017 | 6.3% | 14.5% | 8.2% |
| Christian Vazquez | AA | 2013 | 25.8% | 2017 | 4.1% | 12.6% | 8.5% |
| Clint Robinson | AAA | 2017 | 27.9% | 2015 | 4.5% | 13.3% | 8.8% |
| Simple Average | 19.4% | 9.7% | 9.3% | -0.4% |
The results for the qualified 174 hitters jump all over the place, much like you’d see in a normal distribution of outcomes: the “expected” indexed rate ranges from 11.2 percentage points too low to 8.8 percentage points too high. However, the simple average of the player-specific differences equals -0.4% — that is, almost exactly zero, skewed slightly because it’s not a weighted average and I haphazardly did not normalize across player-seasons. Still, if the quick-and-easy check suffices, I assume the in-depth check would, too.
Circling back to the top, Melchior was correct to be concerned about Willie Calhoun’s issues with pop-ups, but he was probably twice as alarmed as he needed to be. Still, Calhoun should pop-up quite a bit — his IFFB% will likely settle in the mid-teens — which helps explain his low Minor League BABIPs and should encourage you to be bearish on those abilities at the Major League level.
Lastly, why is any of this happening? Who knows — someone does, just not me — but I speculate it’s simply a matter of how pop-ups are classified in the minors more than anything related to measurement or stringer error. If they are true errors, they are rampant, which seems improbable. Accordingly, it is probably just differences in measurement definitions.
Now, go wield your new wisdom!
Great post. I’ve always wondered how the batted ball data, as well as the pitch data (swinging strike rate, etc.), was calculated for the minor leagues/