A.J. Pollock’s Mini Breakout

Entering 2014, A.J. Pollock was seen as a league average hitter with excellent center field defense. The combination ensured that he would see plenty of action with the Diamondbacks. His ability to steal a few bases marked him as a useful, if unexciting, fantasy option.

Pollock looked like a fantasy monster early in the season. He posted a healthy .316/.366/.544 line in 177 plate appearances through the end of May, when a broken hand sidelined him for three months. A .370 BABIP and .237 ISO buoyed his numbers. Upon returning from injury, he hit .273/.326/.386 in 95 plate appearances which is more in keeping with his career numbers.

Overall, his 41/7/24/14/.301 fantasy slash over 287 plate appearances was worth $1 to fantasy owner. This, of course, is somewhat misleading due to the injury. For example, take a look at Leonys Martin’s line of 68/7/40/31/.274 in 583 plate appearances. That was worth $12. Even if you properly regress the missing half season of work, a full year of Pollock would have probably ranked in the $15-$20 range. Not bad for somebody who was free according to FantasyPros.

Pollock brings some good qualities to the plate for his owners. He’s a patient hitter despite a 6.6 percent walk rate. In fact, I would prefer if he were a little more aggressive within the strike zone, when his swing rate is about five percent below league average. He’s contact oriented with a 6.7 percent whiff rate, which makes it easier for him to feature a patient approach.

He improved in three ways in 2014 – base stealing, power, and BABIP. Unfortunately, it’s possible that none of the improvements will carry into 2015. While a full season of Pollock will net you double digit stolen bases, don’t count on the 28 stolen base total implied by the 14 he snagged this season. He does strike me as the kind of guy who will run as often as his manager allows, but it’s too early to guess how Chip Hale will approach the running game.

BABIP speaks for itself. Around here, we always expect some kind of regression. In the case of Pollock, he hit 14 percent line drives, 52 percent grounders, 34 percent flies, and 9.5 percent infield flies (IFFB’s are included in “flies”). That’s not a line that produces a .344 BABIP. He did manage to beat out infield singles at a 13 percent rate, which was the 11th highest such rate in the majors.

What can we do with this information? Regression in line drive rate and infield hit rate are likely to cancel each other out. Beyond that, he hits a lot of ground balls, produces a typical share of free pop outs, and doesn’t hit many outfield flies. That does not bode well for his home run totals. Indeed, his average fly ball distance of 278 feet was 146th in baseball, mixed with players like A.J. Ellis, Dustin Pedroia, and Brian Dozier.

In my experience, the guys who do well hitting home runs with an average fly ball distance rely on pulling the ball. As you’ll see in the spray charts below, Pollock’s power came up the middle. Perhaps the injury played a role? Since I can’t split the fly ball distance data into first half-second half (I don’t have the raw inputs, only the output), I provided a visual split below. The chart with fewer dots is pre-injury and the chart with more dots is the full season.

My advice for “interpreting” the difference in the chart: focus on just the deep outfield, then focus on just shallow outfield. It seems like Pollock hit a lot more shallow flies upon returning from injury. That’s consistent with two classic arguments: “he’s still not 100 percent,” and “he’s rusty.” Both are plausible. It also looks like his ground ball rate may have spiked upon his return.

Maybe this means we can be hopeful about Pollock’s early season power. Steamer calls for a 59/10/53/16/.266 fantasy line next season – one he was on pace to shatter this year. Pollock figures to bat first or second for Arizona, so a 90 run season isn’t out of the question. I might look at projecting Pollock for a 80/12/42/18/.275 line, which would have been worth about $15 this season.