A Danny Valencia Discussion

Despite accruing a mere 195 plate appearances between his time with the Blue Jays and the A’s this season, Danny Valencia has made a bit of name for himself in both traditional fantasy baseball leagues and Daily Fantasy Sites. His .308/.345/.544 line with nine home runs would be welcome on any team, though some people may view his accomplishments partly due to the hitter friendly confines of the Rogers Centre.

Between his time as a Blue Jay and his one road game as a member of the A’s at Rogers, Valencia boasts a .329/.368/.585 line to go along with cracking four of his dingers there. Via Hit Tracker Online, all four of his home runs in Canada would have cleared the fence in 24 other ballparks too, with his shortest being a 348 foot opposite field shot down the first base line. It isn’t like he was popping cheap shots or wall scrappers.

The power, even in limited playing time, isn’t a terribly new development as he hit 15 in 605 plate appearances back in 2011 and he’s been shuffled between Triple-A and the majors. He’s moved from Minnesota to Boston, then to Baltimore followed by Kansas City, then swapped over to the Blue Jays before being picked up by the A’s. Job consistency — be it in the big leagues or even with just one organization — has not been a part of Valencia’s everyday life for some time.

Before we get too excited about his triple slash or his homers, taking a look at his .367 BABIP is important. A .299 career BABIP prior to this season shows he may be on the receiving end of some good batted ball fortune. Examining his Soft%, Medium% and Hard%, I’m not so sure how much could be considered luck. Among 289 hitters with at least 190 plate appearances this season, Valencia’s 12.3 percent Soft% rates as 24th lowest. His Hard% rate of 34.1 isn’t quite as impressive, but is tied for 65th best. According to MLB’s Statcast page, Valencia’s 93.2 mph average launch speed (for hits only, not all batted balls) ranks tied at 22nd highest in baseball. He’s managed to post basically a league average 9.3 percent IFFB% this season as well, comparing favorably to his 13.3 percent average from 2010-2015.

It’s still a bit soon to be calling these batted ball rates his true talent level, however I do like seeing him drive the ball more. Valencia’s tendency to swing and miss at an 11.9 percent clip hurts his walk and strikeout rates, but he still has value when up against a lefty. He’s crushed southpaws at a .326/.369/.500 clip, good for a 139 wRC+. In traditional fantasy leagues he can be plugged in at first base, third base or outfield, giving him a bit more value as a flexible bat. Valencia should be considered valuable as a deep league option or a sneaky pick in DFS when he faces a left-hander. I picked Valencia up in my 29-man rosters (plus 10 prospects) 12-team league and he’s served me well.