A Closer Look At Six Hitters Off To Unique Starts

It started with Anthony Rizzo in March. While taking a close look, I noticed he has a rarish combination of low strikeout rate and high ISO. The basic logic on why that’s a rare combo makes sense. Batters who hit for a lot of power generally strike out a lot. But what we want is on the other side of that “generally.” The Rizzos, if you will.

To see who’s fitting the definition this season, I first settled on limits of an ISO of .200 or above and a strikeout rate of lower than 15. Why those rates? I looked at the top 50 in each stat and found the closest round number. For reference, Victor Martinez and Jose Bautista made the cut last season. Though Albert Pujols (short on power) and Edwin Encarnacion (short on strikeout rate) were both very close. In 2013, it was Encarnacion, Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera and David Ortiz. For even more reference, ISO stabilizes at 160 AB. Statistics are through May 13.

Hanley Ramirez (14.6 K%/.270 ISO) – This looks roughly like Ramirez should when healthy. Yes, the HR/FB is inflated, and he has yet to hit a double or a triple. So maybe that’s where the “roughly” part comes in. This, minus a few home runs, looks like Ramirez should when healthy. Hopefully his recent shoulder injury doesn’t linger.

Zack Cozart (14.5/.226) – Cozart’s power has always been solid (for a shortstop) (minus 2014). So in that sense his four April homers weren’t a complete shock. He does have three other months in his career with four homers. But coming after such a rough 2014 does make them stick out a bit more. With four home runs in 137 games, Cozart didn’t bring anything to the fantasy table last season. He did miss nine games in September with wrist soreness, so perhaps that bothered him earlier in the season. Whatever the issue was, it appears to be solved now. Just don’t expect him to continue this pace for the full season as his current HR/FB is twice his career rate. ZiPS projects 14 home runs and eight steals for the season. The steals would be a career high.

Cozart’s plate discipline has been improving over the past few seasons and he’s making more contact than ever before, so I’m not convinced his average will sink all the way to his career mark. He also occupies a favorable position in a decent lineup. Selling high is fine, but I don’t think fantasy owners should feel the need to scramble and sell him for scraps.

Adam Jones (12.6/221) – This start features the lowest strikeout rate and the best wRC+ of Jones’ career. Part of it comes from Jones absolutely mashing lefties this season, after about 1,000 games proving he’s slightly worse against them than he is against righties. Mostly it comes from Jones simply missing fewer pitches out of the zone, despite being as aggressive as ever. It’s tempting to say Jones is evolving as a hitter, but that’s hard to believe since he’s displaying the same level of discernment on the strike zone.

Logan Morrison (11.8/.200) – Like an oasis nestled in the injury-plagued desert of Morrison’s career, there is 2011. In said season Morrison put up a .221 ISO through 123 games. It turns out both numbers would be notable for his career as he’s yet to touch either again. He appears to be healthy now and his power has been excellent to start 2015. The run into this season continues Morrison’s finish to 2014. From Sept. 1 through the end of the season, he had a .303 ISO and .71 BB/K. As long as he stays healthy, I’d expect the power to stick and his average to rise along with his BABIP. Morrison is an intriguing addition where available.

Anthony Rizzo (11.6/.265) – This list wouldn’t be quite right if he wasn’t here. Rizzo has improved almost universally upon his breakout 2015. He’s even added speed to his game with seven steals in nine attempts. At this moment, the 25-year-old sits comfortably among the best hitters in fantasy baseball.

Josh Reddick (9.8/.231) – It’s tempting to draw a line back to what Reddick did in 2012 and think he’s simply continuing on that path. However, he’s no longer the same hitter. He’s now swinging much less, missing much less and making more contact. That’s led to a 1.17 BB/K, which is nearly three times his career rate. He may regress, but it’s much easier to believe in good performance when there’s a bona fide change in approach to go along with it.