Perpetua’s Wacky Bold Predictions 2017

This is the first bold predictions I’ve ever made public! Which is scary, for you, and I get all ten right. Just kidding. I’m a Mets fan, so I’ll get my Mets homer related ones out of the way first:

1: Steven Matz will be a top 10 starting pitcher

I believe from a combination of his velocity (94-95), his stuff (very nasty), competitive drive (off the charts), and cheat codes (he’s left handed) he can sustain some of the weakest batted ball contact in the game. Now tack on his command (6% walk rate) and strikeout rate (23%) and you have a guy with legitimate ace potential.

I’m using xStats to judge his batted ball value. He kept batters to an expected .231/.278/.363 slash line in 2016, with an xOBA of .268.

Amongst pitchers with at least 100 IP last season, Matz ranked 12th according to xOBA behind Clayton Kershaw, Jose Fernandez, Rich Hill, Noah Syndergaard, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, and Max Scherzer.

Going by scFIP, which is similar to FIP but uses expected home run rate, Matz ranked 11th behind Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Jose Fernandez, Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, Chris Devenski, Kyle Hendricks, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, and Madison Bumgarner.

So these two lists of pitchers have a great degree of overlap, and it is by no means controversial to say these are among the best pitchers in the game. Of them, Matz has the lowest strikeout rate to date.  He has also suffered a multitude of injuries including a muscle injury to his back, shoulder soreness, and bone chips in his elbow. None of these are great signs, but they all seem to be behind him.

At the end of the season, I think you’ll see him in the top ten pitchers. Some people might be surprised, but you will not be one of them, because you heard it here first.

 

2: Jay Bruce will bat .270

Nine out of ten dentists agree, I’ve spent too much time going over Jay Bruce video this winter.  It’s unhealthy. I’m sorry. But I’m also not sorry, because I think he’s in line for a good season. His first good season in a few years. Everyone is writing him off because he had several bad years in a row.  I was one of them until I looked deeper into what was going on, what he was doing to fix it, and the objective change in his performance in recent years. That last part is key.

Lots of people can say they are working on lots of change, but show me the progress. Bruce has done that. Many people seemed to be overlooking it. Including many/most/all GMs.

Jay Bruce has always had pull power, even at his lowest points he could pull the ball with authority. That’s nothing new, everyone knows that. The difference, though, is that he *also* has push power. That’s a fact a lot of people overlook, and his push power is what separates his good and bad seasons. When he can drive the ball to left field, his batting average goes up significantly. When he can’t, his batting average plummets. The past few seasons he has bat .230-ish, so you can probably guess which side of the fence he’s been on.

But wait!  He’s changing! Last year he added significant amounts of power to the opposite field. Not as much as he used to have, but much more than in, say, 2014 and 2015. His hands are dropping in his set position, going from ear level to chin level, shortening his swing significantly. He’s regaining his ability to go opposite field with authority.  

Last year was a stepping point. If he continues to progress, he will hit .270 this year. If he reverts back to his old self you can call me stupid.

3: Lucas Duda will outperform his ADP by 250.

At the time of writing, Duda has an ADP of 351.  This is almost offensively low.  He will finish in the top 100. This is a guy who ranked 18th by wOBA between 2014 and 2015 with the following slash lines.

2014: .253/.349/.481, 30 HR, 74 R, 92 RBI

2015: .244/.352/.486, 27 HR, 67 R, 73 RBI

xStats has him projected to hit .259/.339/.480 in 2017.

Steamers: .242/.343/.452

ZiPS: .242/.343/.477

Yes, he had disappointingly few runs scored and RBI totals in 2014 and 2015. It wasn’t his fault, he was doing his job, the team around him was too weak to help pad his stats. This year, the Mets offense should be much better, especially compared to 2014 and the first half of 2015. His back injury is a problem, no doubt about it. But even if he misses some time, he is still a tremendous player.

I’ll use the auction calculator to find his value at the end of the season. If he finishes in the top 100, I get a point.

 

Okay, now that my Mets homer stuff is out of the way, let’s branch out:

4: DJ LeMahieu will hit 20 homers

Offensively speaking, DJ LeMahieu is a carbon copy of Daniel Murphy. Early Daniel Murphy, anyway. Ya know, 2015 Daniel Murphy.  Pre MVP Daniel Murphy. Foreshadowing.

DJ has had great pull power, his average batted ball distance on well hit fly balls over the past two seasons have been 418 feet when pulled and 375 feet when pushed. Yes, all batters hit the ball better when pulled, but 418 feet is a very long distance. In the past two seasons, among qualified batters, DJ ranks 2nd and 14th in average distance on well hit pulled batted balls. Okay, yes, you may be saying “but he never pulls the ball, who cares if he hits 10 balls like 400 feet.”  Yes, fair enough. Two points.  

First, DJ has seen what Murphy has done.  He’s a smart dude, he knows how similar he is, and he knows he has crushed balls when he has pulled them.  

Second, I have seen reports about DJ working on his power over the offseason. Specifically, these reports hinted at a small change in approach. A change, I think, and I hope, will result in DJ taking full advantage of his quick hands and pull power. I think his home run total will double, the same way Murphy’s did.

5: Edwin Encarnacion will underperform his ADP by 30 spots

I don’t have much data to go by, but it appears that increasing launch angle might be a sign of aging. I don’t mean moving from ground balls to fly balls, or even line drives to fly balls. I mean moving from lower launch angle fly balls, which turn into home runs, and elevating it a bit into the fly out range.

In 2016, Encarnacion balanced his elevated batted balls with a large increase in exit velocity. I am not convinced his exit velocity is sustainable, and I think he will continue to raise his fly ball launch angle. Then factor in the larger ball parks in the AL Central compared to the AL East. His home runs could start turning into outs. This could tank his batting average, OBP, slugging, RBI total, runs scored, everything.

At the time of writing he has an ADP of 25. I think he will finish the season at 55, if not worse (I’ll value this using the auction calculator at the end of the season).

6: Carlos Rodon will have a significant drop in HR/FB (to 11%)

This may not seem bold to some, and it may seem very bold to others. In 2016, Rodon’s home run rate jumped dramatically from 9.8% to 13.8%. Depending on your perspective, this may mean nothing or mean a whole lot. There are two schools of thought:

First, the home run rate went up for the whole league, so obviously his would go up, too.

Second, it is just one season, it is statistical noise, who cares?

I’m here to tell you, camp two is probably more accurate. If you’re in that camp already, then this will not seem bold to you.

In 2016, Carlos Rodon’s percent of ideal launch angles (21-36 degrees, accounting for nearly all home runs) raised from 18 to 20 percent of the total balls in play. That’s not great. However, the average exit velocity dropped 2 mph. Most pitchers who decreased the exit velocity on these particular batted balls had their home run rate drop in 2016. Except Carlos Rodon, who had his increase by 150%.

In addition, according to xStats, he had 6 fewer xHR than actual home runs. If you subtract those homers from his total, the home run rate drops to 11%.

7: Gary Sanchez will hit fewer than 30 home runs, and he will not have the most homers as a catcher.

This is a two parter, double or nothing prediction. First, he will have fewer than 30 homers total for the season. Second, he will not have the most homers in the catcher position. DH at bats don’t count!

This next part isn’t part of my official bold prediction but it is an aside: Lucroy will hit more homers as a catcher than Sanchez, even if Sanchez hits more total.

8: Wil Myers and Trea Turner will finish the season with roughly the same slash line +/- 2%:

So, for example, one may hit .260/.330/.435 and the other .265/.324/.433. Those stats would all be within 2% of each other, and I get a point. These two guys have hit so similarly, and have projections so close, that it confuses and amuses me that they were included in the same trade. Especially since the rebuilding team traded the clone with superior defense.

These two guys will always be linked in my mind, and maybe you feel the same way.  I’m putting my honor on the line here, these two guys will finish the season with almost identical stats. I’m even willing to throw in home runs and steals to double or nothing this. Not RBIs and Runs scored, though. That wouldn’t be a fair comparison since they have different spots in the lineup.

9: SunTrust Park will increase the Braves home run total by 17%.

In 2016, the Braves hit 52 homers in Turner Field.  They will hit at least 61 in SunTrust Park. I feel this stadium is likely going to be much more hitter friendly than Turner Field, especially for guys like Freddie Freeman.

10: Kenta Maeda will underperform his ADP by 50.

I don’t think he will have a bad year. I don’t think he will be injured.  I think he will be average. Not great.  Not good. Just, meh. His ADP is currently sitting around 95, and I feel he will finish closer to 150. If, at the end of the season the auction calculator places him 145 or worse, I get a point.

BONUS:

Last year, in Citi Field, there were record numbers of home runs hit in practically every month of the season, except April. This year they will have a record number in April.