8 Hitters With Major HR/FB Upside
How does one project a power breakout? It is difficult, perhaps impossible, to develop a system that more often than not uncovers a player due for a power spike. So rather than sift through an array of underlying metrics searching for clues, there’s an easier way. It’s the same thing we do when we look at a hitter’s BABIP and compare it to his xBABIP or check a pitcher’s BABIP and assume better/worse fortune the following year will lead to improved/decreased performance.
For hitter HR/FB rate, we can use my xHR/FB equation I developed and compare what the hitter actually did (HR/FB rate) versus what the hitter perhaps should have done (xHR/FB rate). It’s not necessarily a case of projecting a power breakout, but a simple increase, which certainly might represent a surge to new heights, or simply a rebound off a disappointing previous season result.
I looked at all hitters who hit at least 50 fly balls (about a month and a half’s worth of data for a typical hitter) and compared their actual HR/FB rate to their xHR/FB, then sorted by the difference. These eight players were hand-picked based on fantasy attractiveness and all have major upside, which is likely not incorporated into any computer system’s projections (though, they are baked into my Pod Projections!).

Name | Avg Distance | Avg Abs Angle (AAA) | SD Dist (SDD) | xHR/FB | Actual HR/FB | Difference |
Jonathan Lucroy | 283.8 | 20.2 | 66.2 | 17.3% | 7.6% | -9.7% |
Stephen Piscotty | 301.0 | 28.2 | 53.5 | 20.6% | 11.7% | -8.9% |
Matt Wieters | 302.2 | 20.8 | 63.8 | 21.3% | 12.9% | -8.4% |
Wil Myers | 297.9 | 21.6 | 67.1 | 21.9% | 13.6% | -8.3% |
Giovanny Urshela | 273.9 | 22.0 | 66.3 | 15.7% | 8.5% | -7.2% |
Gregory Polanco | 275.1 | 20.8 | 58.9 | 12.6% | 5.5% | -7.1% |
Marcell Ozuna | 282.3 | 25.3 | 57.4 | 16.0% | 9.3% | -6.7% |
Mark Trumbo | 291.7 | 22.7 | 66.3 | 20.5% | 14.5% | -6.0% |
Unweighted Lg Avg (50 FB min) | 279.4 | 20.6 | 58.2 | 10.0% | 11.5% |
Jonathan Lucroy is coming off an injury plagued season that also saw him post his worst wOBA since 2011. All the important metrics moved in the wrong direction — a surging K%, coupled with a plummeting ISO and FB%. But lo and behold, his batted ball distance is right in line with where it’s sat the previous two seasons, while his SDD hit a new career high. A stable Hard% also supports the notion that he didn’t lose any power at all. For whatever reason, the results just weren’t there. He represents a great opportunity to grab a pretty clear rebound candidate for cheaper than he’ll likely cost in years.
One caveat, and it’s pretty major, is that he has underperformed his xHR/FB in five of his six seasons. And it has been a pretty severe underperformance, which is odd considering he calls a top HR park home. Still, he’ll be better in 2016, though I wouldn’t look for a high teens HR/FB rate!
Stephen Piscotty! This is what I was looking at that inspired me to ask the silly question of whether he was “the Superest of the Stars“. I won’t rehash what I discussed just last week, but if he does indeed hit second and have right field all to himself, he could be a bargain and the breakout we actually did see coming.
I haven’t calculated my dollar values yet so my initial rankings that were posted along with the rest of the gang last week don’t mean a whole lot. But, I was the most optimistic ranker of Matt Wieters, and his appearance above is precisely why. With math involved, perhaps he doesn’t come in 8th among catchers, but I’m rather confident I’ll remain the most, or one of the most, bullish. The recovery from TJ surgery dragged on longer than expected last year, but that should be over with now and he should be good to go. Even without the injury concerns, many are going to be concerned about the performance — a .155 ISO is his lowest since 2010. But, his 300+ distance was the highest of his career and the first time he even breached the 290 level. Don’t worry about the performance.
Oh, Wil Myers, have you disappointed us again?! Yes, yes you have. The poor guy cannot stay off the disabled list. But injury concerns aside, Myers showed serious pop last year and the ability to absolutely clobber it every once in a while (check out that SDD). This was Myers’ highest distance in his three seasons. It’s true that Petco is likely going to hurt his HR/FB rate given its right-handed HR park factor that ranks tied for third lowest in baseball. But no park is extreme enough to explain the entire discrepancy between his actual HR/FB rate and xHR/FB rate. With his missed time and overall disappointingness, there is probably going to be some real profit potential.
Hmmm, Giovanny Urshela’s name was a surprise to find here. He did post an ISO of nearly .200 during his time at Triple-A in 2014, but Kiley McDaniel called his power just average before the 2015 season. Now here’s the issue — his inflated xHR/FB rate is primarily driven by an above average AAA and well above average SDD, both of which are less sustainable year-to-year than distance. And his distance is actually below average. BUT! The AAA and SDD don’t have zero correlation of course and the SDD is actually not too much lower than distance. So his marks still hold some predictive value. I just wouldn’t consider a 15.7% HR/FB rate mark reasonable upside to hope for. That said, he could surprise with a low teens mark, perhaps 11% or 12%, which might still be well above what anyone else is expecting.
One might want to point to PNC Park as to why Gregory Polanco so underperformed his xHR/FB rate. Since it sports the seventh lowest left-handed home run park factor in baseball, it’s a reasonable explanation. Surprisingly though, his home HR/FB rate is actually double his away mark through his short career! It’s true that his distance, like Urshela’s, is also below league average and he makes up for it with slightly higher marks in the other two components, which is not what I typically like to see. But surely he could manage better than a weak 5.5% HR/FB rate this season, right?! If he improves, it will be looked upon as simply a young hitter improving. But really, he just wasn’t as bad from a power perspective last year as his results indicated. Also, might I add that his ISO actually increased from 2014 to 2015, so it may have just been a rearrangement of his extra-base hits that led to the HR/FB rate decline.
I was rooting hard for Marcell Ozuna to be traded when rumors were heating up. I was getting all giddy when the Rangers were mentioned and the thought of scooping him up in AL-Only Tout Wars. Even if he remains a Marlin heading into the season, do not forget that the fences are being moved in (as if Giancarlo Stanton needed any more help!). At home, Ozuna’s HR/FB rate sits at just 8.6% for his career, versus a 14.3% mark in away games. He should enjoy a double boost this season — from the friendlier home confines and the bounce back in results to more closely match his xHR/FB rate.
After swatting 30+ homers in 2012 and 2013, Mark Trumbo has launched just 36 home runs in the last two seasons combined. Hit ISO has dropped below .200 and HR/FB rate fallen from around 21% to 14% and change. But his distance is right around where he has sat every single year, while both his AAA and SDD marked new career bests. In fact, that xHR/FB rate was also a career high. You know what’s cool? He takes a power profile that likely would have yielded better results regardless of park to an Orioles home field that boosts right-handed home runs. A return to a 20% HR/FB rate isn’t so far-fetched.
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And now, due to popular request, and because I’m a slave to you readers, I present to you the entire list of hitters who had a negative difference between their HR/FB rates and xHR/FB rates (patience, the downsiders are coming tomorrow):

Name | Flyballs + HRs (won’t match FG!) | Avg Distance | Avg Abs Angle (AAA) | SD Dist (SDD) | xHR/FB | Actual HR/FB | Difference |
Josh Phegley | 39 | 304.0 | 21.8 | 65.5 | 22.9% | 12.0% | -10.9% |
Nick Hundley | 53 | 289.1 | 24.8 | 66.2 | 20.9% | 10.1% | -10.8% |
Scott Van Slyke | 38 | 302.2 | 17.0 | 60.9 | 18.4% | 8.7% | -9.7% |
Jonathan Lucroy | 56 | 283.8 | 20.2 | 66.2 | 17.3% | 7.6% | -9.7% |
Stephen Piscotty | 44 | 301.0 | 28.2 | 53.5 | 20.6% | 11.7% | -8.9% |
DJ LeMahieu | 56 | 287.7 | 22.4 | 55.5 | 15.2% | 6.7% | -8.5% |
Alberto Callaspo | 45 | 264.5 | 18.7 | 61.4 | 9.9% | 1.4% | -8.5% |
Matt Wieters | 39 | 302.2 | 20.8 | 63.8 | 21.3% | 12.9% | -8.4% |
Wil Myers | 31 | 297.9 | 21.6 | 67.1 | 21.9% | 13.6% | -8.3% |
Jean Segura | 68 | 269.2 | 28.6 | 53.2 | 12.7% | 5.3% | -7.4% |
Giovanny Urshela | 39 | 273.9 | 22.0 | 66.3 | 15.7% | 8.5% | -7.2% |
Gregory Polanco | 90 | 275.1 | 20.8 | 58.9 | 12.6% | 5.5% | -7.1% |
Hernan Perez | 37 | 263.4 | 20.3 | 56.0 | 8.4% | 1.4% | -7.0% |
Tyler Flowers | 45 | 270.9 | 22.0 | 73.7 | 17.9% | 11.0% | -6.9% |
Rajai Davis | 51 | 286.2 | 21.7 | 58.8 | 15.8% | 9.1% | -6.7% |
Marcell Ozuna | 54 | 282.3 | 25.3 | 57.4 | 16.0% | 9.3% | -6.7% |
Cameron Rupp | 42 | 286.5 | 20.9 | 66.4 | 18.4% | 11.8% | -6.6% |
Scooter Gennett | 48 | 267.8 | 27.0 | 56.9 | 13.0% | 6.7% | -6.3% |
Yangervis Solarte | 105 | 275.4 | 22.6 | 60.9 | 14.3% | 8.0% | -6.3% |
Cameron Maybin | 47 | 279.6 | 26.5 | 64.4 | 18.6% | 12.3% | -6.3% |
Brandon Barnes | 34 | 264.2 | 24.1 | 54.1 | 9.6% | 3.4% | -6.2% |
Christian Yelich | 34 | 297.0 | 23.5 | 56.7 | 18.6% | 12.5% | -6.1% |
Mark Trumbo | 82 | 291.7 | 22.7 | 66.3 | 20.5% | 14.5% | -6.0% |
Chris Johnson | 40 | 270.0 | 23.1 | 56.8 | 11.7% | 5.7% | -6.0% |
Clint Robinson | 56 | 286.9 | 20.4 | 63.4 | 17.1% | 11.2% | -5.9% |
Brad Miller | 75 | 280.2 | 22.5 | 62.5 | 16.1% | 10.3% | -5.8% |
Ben Paulsen | 37 | 291.6 | 20.9 | 67.5 | 20.1% | 14.3% | -5.8% |
Cliff Pennington | 36 | 266.2 | 22.2 | 60.7 | 11.8% | 6.0% | -5.8% |
Matt Duffy | 86 | 286.5 | 21.0 | 57.7 | 15.1% | 9.4% | -5.7% |
Jordy Mercer | 61 | 276.1 | 19.6 | 49.5 | 8.7% | 3.0% | -5.7% |
Aaron Hill | 61 | 275.5 | 21.5 | 54.9 | 11.5% | 5.9% | -5.6% |
Starling Marte | 72 | 303.7 | 20.5 | 70.4 | 24.1% | 18.6% | -5.5% |
Chris Coghlan | 77 | 287.4 | 22.5 | 65.9 | 19.2% | 13.7% | -5.5% |
Yasiel Puig | 51 | 283.4 | 20.8 | 68.5 | 18.4% | 13.1% | -5.3% |
Josh Harrison | 82 | 273.4 | 21.0 | 49.4 | 8.7% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
Miguel Cabrera | 81 | 296.7 | 23.8 | 62.9 | 21.0% | 15.8% | -5.2% |
Eddie Rosario | 94 | 275.3 | 22.4 | 62.3 | 14.8% | 9.6% | -5.2% |
Paulo Orlando | 33 | 284.6 | 20.9 | 62.0 | 16.3% | 11.1% | -5.2% |
Adam Jones | 94 | 298.5 | 19.9 | 69.0 | 21.9% | 16.8% | -5.1% |
Troy Tulowitzki | 96 | 281.9 | 22.6 | 64.2 | 17.3% | 12.2% | -5.1% |
Rene Rivera | 61 | 275.8 | 19.5 | 53.8 | 10.2% | 5.2% | -5.0% |
Adeiny Hechavarria | 61 | 268.0 | 23.5 | 52.1 | 9.5% | 4.5% | -5.0% |
Travis Snider | 32 | 273.1 | 19.8 | 60.9 | 12.4% | 7.4% | -5.0% |
Kolten Wong | 91 | 267.5 | 22.6 | 60.5 | 12.2% | 7.2% | -5.0% |
Leonys Martin | 33 | 275.2 | 18.6 | 60.4 | 12.2% | 7.2% | -5.0% |
Seth Smith | 79 | 287.6 | 22.1 | 56.4 | 15.4% | 10.5% | -4.9% |
Jhonny Peralta | 107 | 279.0 | 21.5 | 65.0 | 16.3% | 11.5% | -4.8% |
Grady Sizemore | 51 | 272.9 | 18.9 | 63.6 | 13.0% | 8.2% | -4.8% |
Alex Rios | 94 | 273.3 | 17.3 | 52.4 | 8.0% | 3.3% | -4.7% |
Asdrubal Cabrera | 116 | 271.1 | 22.9 | 61.0 | 13.4% | 8.7% | -4.7% |
Brett Lawrie | 82 | 290.5 | 20.4 | 58.9 | 16.3% | 11.6% | -4.7% |
Abraham Almonte | 30 | 274.8 | 19.0 | 65.6 | 14.3% | 9.6% | -4.7% |
Lonnie Chisenhall | 58 | 268.9 | 19.7 | 60.8 | 11.3% | 6.6% | -4.7% |
Nick Ahmed | 76 | 272.3 | 19.8 | 60.1 | 11.9% | 7.3% | -4.6% |
Robinson Chirinos | 40 | 291.4 | 19.8 | 61.9 | 17.4% | 12.8% | -4.6% |
Carlos Gomez | 77 | 283.0 | 19.7 | 59.5 | 14.3% | 9.7% | -4.6% |
Michael Bourn | 58 | 263.2 | 16.5 | 51.1 | 4.6% | 0.0% | -4.6% |
Jimmy Rollins | 113 | 273.4 | 21.7 | 56.8 | 11.8% | 7.3% | -4.5% |
C.J. Cron | 60 | 296.2 | 17.7 | 65.1 | 18.9% | 14.4% | -4.5% |
Jace Peterson | 88 | 277.7 | 17.6 | 52.2 | 9.2% | 4.7% | -4.5% |
Jayson Werth | 63 | 277.0 | 23.8 | 60.6 | 15.2% | 10.8% | -4.4% |
Ruben Tejada | 61 | 275.6 | 17.0 | 50.2 | 7.6% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
Wilson Ramos | 56 | 285.7 | 29.2 | 61.3 | 20.2% | 15.8% | -4.4% |
Aaron Hicks | 72 | 278.0 | 20.1 | 65.3 | 15.5% | 11.1% | -4.4% |
Francisco Cervelli | 60 | 279.0 | 20.0 | 54.9 | 11.7% | 7.3% | -4.4% |
Joc Pederson | 80 | 300.0 | 19.7 | 73.6 | 24.0% | 19.7% | -4.3% |
Mark Canha | 86 | 278.8 | 21.4 | 63.6 | 15.6% | 11.4% | -4.2% |
Gregor Blanco | 49 | 275.4 | 19.2 | 55.2 | 10.5% | 6.3% | -4.2% |
Michael Taylor | 58 | 281.0 | 25.4 | 65.4 | 18.8% | 14.6% | -4.2% |
Chase Headley | 94 | 273.8 | 19.2 | 60.7 | 12.2% | 8.1% | -4.1% |
Kevin Pillar | 99 | 253.2 | 22.8 | 65.8 | 10.7% | 6.6% | -4.1% |
Cesar Hernandez | 42 | 251.1 | 20.2 | 57.0 | 5.6% | 1.5% | -4.1% |
Brian Dozier | 142 | 284.4 | 24.0 | 60.8 | 17.2% | 13.1% | -4.1% |
Daniel Murphy | 124 | 279.2 | 18.8 | 58.0 | 12.3% | 8.3% | -4.0% |
Eduardo Escobar | 92 | 274.8 | 21.7 | 60.3 | 13.5% | 9.5% | -4.0% |
James McCann | 53 | 276.7 | 21.0 | 57.0 | 12.4% | 8.4% | -4.0% |
Andre Ethier | 67 | 288.6 | 21.8 | 58.3 | 16.3% | 12.3% | -4.0% |
Yunel Escobar | 61 | 278.7 | 18.7 | 58.2 | 12.3% | 8.3% | -4.0% |
Aramis Ramirez | 106 | 280.7 | 21.2 | 57.2 | 13.5% | 9.6% | -3.9% |
Billy Butler | 86 | 286.5 | 20.6 | 57.2 | 14.7% | 10.8% | -3.9% |
Prince Fielder | 124 | 279.1 | 19.0 | 67.6 | 16.1% | 12.2% | -3.9% |
Anthony Gose | 54 | 268.1 | 21.5 | 56.0 | 10.1% | 6.2% | -3.9% |
Caleb Joseph | 67 | 280.1 | 22.1 | 57.9 | 14.1% | 10.3% | -3.8% |
Matt Holliday | 31 | 266.4 | 25.8 | 54.9 | 11.3% | 7.5% | -3.8% |
Jake Lamb | 56 | 280.1 | 18.9 | 53.6 | 10.9% | 7.2% | -3.7% |
Adrian Beltre | 104 | 285.5 | 19.5 | 56.3 | 13.6% | 9.9% | -3.7% |
Marcus Semien | 95 | 279.3 | 21.2 | 56.0 | 12.7% | 9.1% | -3.6% |
Carlos Santana | 99 | 276.3 | 22.0 | 64.3 | 15.5% | 11.9% | -3.6% |
Starlin Castro | 85 | 277.9 | 17.7 | 58.9 | 11.9% | 8.3% | -3.6% |
Brandon Belt | 83 | 288.5 | 19.7 | 63.2 | 17.1% | 13.6% | -3.5% |
Elian Herrera | 40 | 277.0 | 23.8 | 56.3 | 13.5% | 10.0% | -3.5% |
Jacoby Ellsbury | 76 | 268.5 | 19.9 | 56.8 | 9.7% | 6.2% | -3.5% |
Cody Asche | 70 | 273.5 | 19.5 | 63.5 | 13.4% | 9.9% | -3.5% |
Ian Kinsler | 140 | 265.5 | 20.9 | 54.3 | 8.5% | 5.0% | -3.5% |
Brandon Crawford | 80 | 303.1 | 19.6 | 60.4 | 19.7% | 16.2% | -3.5% |
Randal Grichuk | 61 | 296.9 | 22.5 | 68.4 | 22.6% | 19.1% | -3.5% |
Yonder Alonso | 54 | 271.4 | 18.6 | 55.2 | 9.3% | 5.8% | -3.5% |
Jake Smolinski | 26 | 292.4 | 23.9 | 49.8 | 14.9% | 11.5% | -3.4% |
Logan Morrison | 101 | 284.0 | 17.5 | 63.5 | 15.0% | 11.6% | -3.4% |
Yadier Molina | 91 | 267.7 | 22.2 | 45.6 | 6.3% | 2.9% | -3.4% |
Ben Zobrist | 102 | 276.6 | 22.0 | 57.7 | 13.1% | 9.7% | -3.4% |
Matt Joyce | 41 | 272.6 | 16.3 | 59.3 | 10.0% | 6.6% | -3.4% |
David Freese | 51 | 284.4 | 25.2 | 63.8 | 19.0% | 15.6% | -3.4% |
Charlie Blackmon | 104 | 276.0 | 17.8 | 62.1 | 12.7% | 9.3% | -3.4% |
Anthony Rendon | 52 | 281.8 | 17.5 | 50.5 | 9.5% | 6.2% | -3.3% |
Howie Kendrick | 45 | 302.0 | 20.9 | 53.6 | 17.4% | 14.1% | -3.3% |
Jung-ho Kang | 53 | 298.8 | 16.5 | 68.4 | 20.2% | 16.9% | -3.3% |
Brock Holt | 56 | 265.9 | 18.5 | 49.6 | 5.7% | 2.4% | -3.3% |
Lorenzo Cain | 120 | 279.4 | 21.1 | 60.4 | 14.4% | 11.2% | -3.2% |
Yasmani Grandal | 66 | 293.9 | 20.4 | 65.2 | 19.5% | 16.3% | -3.2% |
Ian Desmond | 76 | 296.6 | 20.1 | 61.2 | 18.6% | 15.4% | -3.2% |
Adam LaRoche | 78 | 286.4 | 17.8 | 57.5 | 13.5% | 10.3% | -3.2% |
Pablo Sandoval | 86 | 275.3 | 18.9 | 56.7 | 10.9% | 7.8% | -3.1% |
Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 40 | 287.4 | 18.1 | 66.7 | 17.4% | 14.3% | -3.1% |
Adrian Gonzalez | 107 | 302.3 | 19.2 | 61.0 | 19.5% | 16.4% | -3.1% |
Robinson Cano | 89 | 290.3 | 19.6 | 67.0 | 19.0% | 15.9% | -3.1% |
Anthony Rizzo | 141 | 287.9 | 18.4 | 66.4 | 17.6% | 14.6% | -3.0% |
Brandon Moss | 103 | 284.4 | 18.1 | 63.6 | 15.5% | 12.5% | -3.0% |
Melky Cabrera | 92 | 266.1 | 22.6 | 56.5 | 10.3% | 7.3% | -3.0% |
Sean Rodriguez | 32 | 280.0 | 13.5 | 60.4 | 11.0% | 8.0% | -3.0% |
Kevin Kiermaier | 67 | 266.5 | 22.9 | 58.6 | 11.4% | 8.4% | -3.0% |
Brayan Pena | 38 | 255.9 | 16.1 | 52.2 | 3.0% | 0.0% | -3.0% |
Justin Turner | 79 | 285.7 | 22.8 | 60.4 | 16.8% | 13.9% | -2.9% |
Freddy Galvis | 100 | 263.7 | 21.1 | 51.9 | 7.2% | 4.3% | -2.9% |
Corey Dickerson | 27 | 308.2 | 19.8 | 61.3 | 21.4% | 18.5% | -2.9% |
Domonic Brown | 29 | 282.5 | 16.2 | 56.1 | 11.2% | 8.3% | -2.9% |
Martin Prado | 67 | 266.7 | 21.7 | 55.5 | 9.7% | 6.8% | -2.9% |
Matt Kemp | 119 | 291.6 | 21.1 | 59.4 | 17.1% | 14.3% | -2.8% |
Buster Posey | 111 | 285.3 | 20.3 | 55.9 | 13.8% | 11.0% | -2.8% |
Kendrys Morales | 139 | 286.5 | 20.7 | 61.1 | 16.3% | 13.5% | -2.8% |
Chris Owings | 79 | 270.6 | 19.7 | 46.0 | 6.0% | 3.2% | -2.8% |
Jonathan Schoop | 48 | 302.7 | 21.1 | 60.1 | 20.2% | 17.4% | -2.8% |
Will Middlebrooks | 63 | 286.0 | 16.3 | 59.5 | 13.5% | 10.7% | -2.8% |
J.J. Hardy | 65 | 271.5 | 21.5 | 53.9 | 10.1% | 7.4% | -2.7% |
Mitch Moreland | 87 | 296.7 | 19.6 | 68.1 | 21.0% | 18.3% | -2.7% |
Jason Heyward | 65 | 277.3 | 20.8 | 62.8 | 14.7% | 12.0% | -2.7% |
Sam Fuld | 29 | 252.9 | 19.2 | 59.4 | 6.5% | 3.8% | -2.7% |
Will Venable | 32 | 276.2 | 22.1 | 59.5 | 13.8% | 11.1% | -2.7% |
A.J. Pierzynski | 70 | 261.2 | 22.3 | 62.1 | 11.0% | 8.4% | -2.6% |
Elvis Andrus | 99 | 260.0 | 23.9 | 50.1 | 6.9% | 4.3% | -2.6% |
Nolan Arenado | 139 | 295.2 | 21.7 | 66.7 | 21.1% | 18.5% | -2.6% |
Carlos Beltran | 113 | 279.9 | 20.9 | 58.4 | 13.7% | 11.1% | -2.6% |
Trevor Plouffe | 123 | 283.0 | 21.3 | 58.2 | 14.6% | 12.0% | -2.6% |
Salvador Perez | 105 | 286.0 | 20.3 | 58.4 | 15.0% | 12.4% | -2.6% |
Chris Iannetta | 61 | 274.3 | 19.1 | 63.7 | 13.5% | 10.9% | -2.6% |
Cory Spangenberg | 32 | 277.4 | 22.0 | 49.2 | 10.1% | 7.5% | -2.6% |
Freddie Freeman | 89 | 294.4 | 21.6 | 60.1 | 18.3% | 15.8% | -2.5% |
Rusney Castillo | 39 | 279.5 | 24.6 | 50.5 | 12.3% | 9.8% | -2.5% |
Marlon Byrd | 87 | 291.0 | 22.6 | 64.9 | 19.8% | 17.3% | -2.5% |
Steve Pearce | 68 | 280.0 | 23.4 | 63.3 | 16.8% | 14.3% | -2.5% |
Andres Blanco | 35 | 275.8 | 16.5 | 65.6 | 13.3% | 10.9% | -2.4% |
Dustin Ackley | 45 | 294.1 | 22.0 | 51.6 | 15.1% | 12.7% | -2.4% |
Adam Eaton | 79 | 275.0 | 20.6 | 61.1 | 13.3% | 10.9% | -2.4% |
Justin Upton | 114 | 282.7 | 21.0 | 66.7 | 17.6% | 15.2% | -2.4% |
Joe Panik | 73 | 262.7 | 23.0 | 55.7 | 9.3% | 6.9% | -2.4% |
Todd Frazier | 139 | 287.3 | 18.3 | 66.6 | 17.5% | 15.1% | -2.4% |
Juan Lagares | 66 | 265.0 | 22.0 | 51.6 | 7.9% | 5.5% | -2.4% |
Stephen Vogt | 97 | 274.2 | 21.8 | 64.2 | 14.9% | 12.5% | -2.4% |
Kyle Seager | 142 | 276.7 | 20.9 | 62.4 | 14.4% | 12.1% | -2.3% |
Ender Inciarte | 64 | 262.5 | 19.9 | 54.7 | 7.4% | 5.1% | -2.3% |
Derek Dietrich | 44 | 297.9 | 21.1 | 48.8 | 14.6% | 12.3% | -2.3% |
Austin Jackson | 67 | 273.2 | 24.3 | 55.2 | 12.4% | 10.1% | -2.3% |
Andrew McCutchen | 115 | 299.7 | 17.1 | 55.8 | 15.9% | 13.6% | -2.3% |
Blake Swihart | 39 | 272.9 | 22.8 | 53.1 | 10.8% | 8.6% | -2.2% |
A.J. Pollock | 83 | 291.1 | 21.7 | 54.5 | 15.4% | 13.2% | -2.2% |
Nick Markakis | 76 | 257.8 | 20.3 | 49.1 | 4.3% | 2.1% | -2.2% |
Justin Maxwell | 41 | 287.6 | 23.5 | 51.2 | 14.1% | 11.9% | -2.2% |
Derek Norris | 83 | 274.6 | 19.4 | 56.9 | 11.1% | 8.9% | -2.2% |
Johnny Giavotella | 65 | 256.3 | 21.6 | 51.6 | 5.5% | 3.3% | -2.2% |
Travis d’Arnaud | 64 | 278.1 | 21.6 | 67.8 | 17.2% | 15.0% | -2.2% |
Kurt Suzuki | 97 | 261.8 | 21.0 | 49.2 | 5.7% | 3.5% | -2.2% |
Kris Bryant | 121 | 292.3 | 20.4 | 61.9 | 17.9% | 15.8% | -2.1% |
Marwin Gonzalez | 52 | 285.9 | 19.0 | 62.6 | 15.9% | 13.8% | -2.1% |
Jason Kipnis | 83 | 266.2 | 20.8 | 55.2 | 9.0% | 6.9% | -2.1% |
Ryan Flaherty | 46 | 294.3 | 19.7 | 54.9 | 15.4% | 13.4% | -2.0% |
Carlos Sanchez | 48 | 257.1 | 24.3 | 56.8 | 9.0% | 7.0% | -2.0% |
Denard Span | 30 | 274.0 | 17.3 | 59.1 | 10.8% | 8.8% | -2.0% |
Odubel Herrera | 55 | 259.6 | 20.4 | 61.5 | 9.6% | 7.6% | -2.0% |
Ryan Zimmerman | 61 | 280.1 | 21.7 | 69.6 | 18.4% | 16.5% | -1.9% |
Manny Machado | 124 | 293.7 | 23.2 | 61.8 | 19.5% | 17.6% | -1.9% |
Erick Aybar | 90 | 254.1 | 17.2 | 55.2 | 4.2% | 2.3% | -1.9% |
Xander Bogaerts | 89 | 266.0 | 23.9 | 46.9 | 7.2% | 5.3% | -1.9% |
Addison Russell | 82 | 278.0 | 19.3 | 56.5 | 11.7% | 9.8% | -1.9% |
Gerardo Parra | 96 | 280.6 | 22.0 | 53.3 | 12.4% | 10.6% | -1.8% |
Brandon Guyer | 60 | 275.5 | 21.1 | 52.6 | 10.4% | 8.6% | -1.8% |
Jonny Gomes | 37 | 274.2 | 20.3 | 60.1 | 12.6% | 10.8% | -1.8% |
Ryan Goins | 56 | 262.8 | 20.0 | 55.7 | 7.9% | 6.1% | -1.8% |
Evan Longoria | 134 | 280.6 | 21.3 | 54.6 | 12.6% | 10.8% | -1.8% |
Jedd Gyorko | 85 | 288.9 | 19.1 | 59.4 | 15.5% | 13.7% | -1.8% |
Victor Martinez | 101 | 278.0 | 19.2 | 49.2 | 8.9% | 7.2% | -1.7% |
Mike Moustakas | 134 | 276.2 | 18.3 | 61.9 | 12.9% | 11.2% | -1.7% |
Chase Utley | 72 | 270.1 | 18.5 | 54.7 | 8.7% | 7.0% | -1.7% |
Danny Espinosa | 50 | 285.6 | 21.0 | 59.9 | 15.8% | 14.1% | -1.7% |
Michael Brantley | 96 | 266.5 | 21.0 | 61.5 | 11.6% | 9.9% | -1.7% |
Jose Iglesias | 45 | 256.9 | 21.7 | 47.1 | 4.0% | 2.4% | -1.6% |
Jose Reyes | 72 | 252.3 | 14.8 | 64.5 | 6.2% | 4.7% | -1.5% |
Curtis Granderson | 143 | 289.9 | 21.3 | 56.7 | 15.8% | 14.3% | -1.5% |
Mike Zunino | 66 | 282.0 | 18.9 | 53.9 | 11.6% | 10.1% | -1.5% |
Jay Bruce | 127 | 281.1 | 19.0 | 62.7 | 14.7% | 13.3% | -1.4% |
Eugenio Suarez | 71 | 274.2 | 22.2 | 59.9 | 13.5% | 12.1% | -1.4% |
Dexter Fowler | 114 | 267.5 | 22.9 | 59.4 | 11.9% | 10.6% | -1.3% |
Darin Ruf | 49 | 281.4 | 23.2 | 66.3 | 18.2% | 16.9% | -1.3% |
Jimmy Paredes | 47 | 285.1 | 21.6 | 59.2 | 15.6% | 14.3% | -1.3% |
Conor Gillaspie | 36 | 262.4 | 19.2 | 55.6 | 7.4% | 6.1% | -1.3% |
Mark Reynolds | 71 | 278.8 | 20.6 | 59.7 | 13.8% | 12.5% | -1.3% |
Joe Mauer | 69 | 285.9 | 20.3 | 49.7 | 11.6% | 10.3% | -1.3% |
Tyler Collins | 40 | 271.9 | 20.9 | 49.7 | 8.3% | 7.1% | -1.2% |
Avisail Garcia | 77 | 276.8 | 19.3 | 60.3 | 12.9% | 11.7% | -1.2% |
Kevin Plawecki | 34 | 266.6 | 18.5 | 50.8 | 6.3% | 5.1% | -1.2% |
Jake Marisnick | 58 | 270.9 | 21.8 | 57.3 | 11.4% | 10.2% | -1.2% |
Colby Rasmus | 102 | 280.4 | 25.8 | 65.1 | 18.7% | 17.6% | -1.1% |
Angel Pagan | 95 | 257.5 | 18.4 | 48.8 | 3.2% | 2.1% | -1.1% |
Nick Swisher | 33 | 284.8 | 18.5 | 55.4 | 12.6% | 11.5% | -1.1% |
Jorge Soler | 56 | 291.0 | 18.2 | 56.8 | 14.6% | 13.5% | -1.1% |
Mookie Betts | 146 | 272.8 | 20.4 | 52.2 | 9.3% | 8.2% | -1.1% |
Jed Lowrie | 62 | 275.2 | 21.9 | 55.2 | 11.8% | 10.8% | -1.0% |
Daniel Descalso | 31 | 265.2 | 24.2 | 56.3 | 10.7% | 9.8% | -0.9% |
Juan Uribe | 68 | 278.8 | 16.7 | 66.8 | 14.6% | 13.7% | -0.9% |
Didi Gregorius | 103 | 261.2 | 20.8 | 53.1 | 6.9% | 6.0% | -0.9% |
J.T. Realmuto | 81 | 261.4 | 22.7 | 55.6 | 8.8% | 7.9% | -0.9% |
Jose Ramirez | 69 | 255.6 | 22.6 | 54.7 | 7.0% | 6.1% | -0.9% |
Nick Castellanos | 120 | 274.7 | 21.4 | 51.7 | 10.1% | 9.2% | -0.9% |
Kelly Johnson | 55 | 295.3 | 19.1 | 65.9 | 19.6% | 18.7% | -0.9% |
David DeJesus | 51 | 263.1 | 22.6 | 50.5 | 7.3% | 6.4% | -0.9% |
Gregory Bird | 37 | 305.3 | 19.7 | 62.9 | 21.2% | 20.4% | -0.8% |
Luis Valbuena | 96 | 291.6 | 22.3 | 59.0 | 17.5% | 16.7% | -0.8% |
Adam Lind | 93 | 286.2 | 21.5 | 56.2 | 14.7% | 14.1% | -0.6% |
Alex Gordon | 80 | 290.0 | 18.7 | 54.4 | 13.6% | 13.0% | -0.6% |
Josh Reddick | 105 | 270.8 | 20.2 | 58.7 | 11.2% | 10.6% | -0.6% |
Rougned Odor | 77 | 278.4 | 21.2 | 55.6 | 12.4% | 11.8% | -0.6% |
Dioner Navarro | 49 | 269.0 | 17.7 | 56.9 | 8.9% | 8.3% | -0.6% |
Brett Gardner | 105 | 271.2 | 22.2 | 56.9 | 11.6% | 11.0% | -0.6% |
Neil Walker | 114 | 275.8 | 17.7 | 56.4 | 10.4% | 9.9% | -0.5% |
Yasmany Tomas | 39 | 288.0 | 17.3 | 57.0 | 13.5% | 13.0% | -0.5% |
A.J. Ellis | 36 | 289.4 | 19.3 | 56.1 | 14.5% | 14.0% | -0.5% |
Torii Hunter | 101 | 286.4 | 24.5 | 55.3 | 15.8% | 15.4% | -0.4% |
Martin Maldonado | 35 | 279.1 | 18.0 | 47.4 | 7.9% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
Omar Infante | 91 | 252.9 | 17.9 | 48.7 | 1.8% | 1.4% | -0.4% |
Alexi Amarista | 54 | 260.4 | 17.4 | 50.0 | 3.9% | 3.6% | -0.3% |
Maikel Franco | 43 | 298.0 | 17.8 | 56.9 | 16.2% | 15.9% | -0.3% |
Alex Rodriguez | 114 | 299.3 | 21.6 | 67.3 | 22.3% | 22.1% | -0.2% |
Jose Bautista | 163 | 286.7 | 20.4 | 67.4 | 18.6% | 18.4% | -0.2% |
Brandon Phillips | 89 | 265.4 | 20.5 | 53.0 | 7.8% | 7.6% | -0.2% |
Josh Donaldson | 140 | 301.7 | 22.1 | 64.2 | 22.0% | 21.8% | -0.2% |
Stephen Drew | 92 | 271.6 | 22.4 | 56.9 | 11.8% | 11.6% | -0.2% |
Preston Tucker | 53 | 292.6 | 18.8 | 58.3 | 15.8% | 15.7% | -0.1% |
Alcides Escobar | 121 | 255.0 | 18.7 | 47.0 | 2.0% | 1.9% | -0.1% |
Lucas Duda | 127 | 285.7 | 19.4 | 62.4 | 16.0% | 15.9% | -0.1% |
Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Is this the kind of thing that can be skewed by a small sample size? As someone deciding whether to keep Piscotty, I want to believe…but I’m skeptical.
Of course! It’s just like any metric in which the larger the sample, the more value it provides. I imagine you have Piscotty cheap, so it depends on how price of course.