The Daily Grind: Milone, Montero, Reddick

Agenda

1. Words About the Weather Factor
2. Daily DFS – Milone
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Montero, Detwiler, Reddick, Eaton
4. Factor Grid

1. Words About the Weather Factor

The most frequent question I receive is about how to interpret the weather factor in the Factor Grid. It’s a zero to 10 grade of atmospheric conditions for home runs. Zero is bad. 10 is good. My source, the SI Weather Home Run App, is a black box. In other words, I have no insight into the specific math.

It would be nice to use the factors to say “home runs are up 10 percent at Chase Field today due to the weather.” Unfortunately, not enough information is available. Instead, the weather factor is listed to provide some indication of which parks are normal or abnormal on a given day.

For example, several parks have an “8 to 3” rating today. That means the weather will start as homer friendly and decline throughout the game. It’s very common to see an “8 to 4” for 7:00 PM ET start times. Once night rolls around, home run conditions often deteriorate.

Do keep location in mind as weather is also baked into the park factors. Chase Field usually ranges from a seven to 10. Target Field has a lot more cold days. A 10 weather rating in Minneapolis probably means more to the park factors than a 10 weather rating in Phoenix.

If there is any other confusion, let’s sort it out now. I’m open to presenting the data in another way, but I’m skeptical that a better alternative exists.

2. Daily DFS – Milone

Early: The games in Boston and Cleveland are set to start at 6:10 ET today. As such, they aren’t a part of the main contest today.

Late: I usually avoid games at pitcher friendly stadiums, especially when the weather rating is not favorable. However, it’s hard to ignore the Tigers stack at Target Field. They’ll face southpaw Tommy Milone. He’s benefited from a .196 BABIP. The Tigers’ righty-heavy lineup usually mashes mediocre lefties. Detroit will be without Rajai Davis – he strained his groin yesterday.

Target Field isn’t actually that bad for righty home runs, and Milone is a fly ball pitcher. We could see a couple leave the yard today. If you prefer a better location for power, there are plenty of stacking options today.

Stack Targets: Eric Stults, Hector Noesi, Nate Karns, Adam Warren, Jason Marquis, Dillon Gee, Jarred Cosart, Taijuan Walker, Vance Worley

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Montero, Detwiler, Reddick, Eaton

Pitchers to Start: The supply of exploits remains high. If you’re looking for a guy to stream, perhaps try Rafael Montero against the Giancarlo Stantons. Montero features a four pitch mix of fastball, sinker, slider, and change. His minor league numbers suggest that he has some degree of command and control, although he’s appeared slightly overmatched at the major league level.

I see him more as a growth asset than somebody we can use now.

Also consider: J.A. Happ, Tanner Roark

Pitchers to Exploit: The Mariners have a few right-handed hitters who come in to face lefty pitching. As such, a matchup against Ross Detwiler is of interest. When he was with the Nationals, I was convinced Detwiler could stick in a rotation. However, his stuff has declined this year. His 10.95 ERA is supported by a 9.46 FIP and 7.01 xFIP.

Frankly, I’m surprised the Rangers haven’t bumped him from the rotation yet. You don’t need a decent alternative when a guy is pitching as badly as Detwiler.

Also consider: Clay Buchholz, Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Tillman, Chase Whitley, Kyle Lohse, David Phelps, Jeff Locke, Travis Wood, Mike Pelfrey, Jered Weaver

Hitters (power): After missing the start of the season, Josh Reddick has quietly slain his opponents. He’s just nine percent owned on Yahoo, yet he’s hitting .348/.412/.522 in 51 plate appearances. I was all over Reddick’s combination of power and speed last year, perhaps I was just a year too early. He’s up against Weaver.

Also consider: Rickie Weeks, Justin Ruggiano, Travis Snider

Hitters (speed): Fantasy owners are kicking Adam Eaton to the curb after a slow start to the season. The contact hitter has slashed .200/.253/.271 through his first 75 plate appearances. He still profiles as a viable fantasy option, but perhaps we should expect a league average BABIP after all. If that’s the case, he’ll hit somewhere around .270/.340/.360. That should still lead to a lot of runs scored. He’ll see Tillman.

Also consider: David DeJesus, Ichiro Suzuki, Rougned Odor, Anthony Gose, Ender Inciarte

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The game in Texas is at the greatest risk of interruption. Keep an eye on the Doppler.

The Link. You have your pick of green stadiums tonight.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.