- Daily DFS – ARod
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Greene, Baker, Schoop, Pompey
- Factor Grid
The first week can produce its share of frustration. For example, I built a deep ottoneu roster with 38 major league players. In the first week, I benched more points than I started on most days. I don’t feel bad about sitting Jonathan Schoop – he’s on my roster as a growth asset.
A more regrettable decision involves sitting Paul Goldschmidt against Clayton Kershaw. I had Adam Lind against the seemingly easy Jimmy Nelson. Little did I know that Nelson would pull a 60 grade curve out of thin air. I’ve never seen him flash even an average breaking ball.
Up until yesterday, Jose Ramirez was the best hitter on my home league roster. Said roster includes the likes of Jose Bautista, Giancarlo Stanton, and Carlos Gomez (among others). As you might expect, that roster is in last place after one week. Players like Ian Desmond, Melky Cabrera, and Leonys Martin will eventually notch some hits.
So, what’s going wrong with your teams?
I’m trying to decide what to do with Raisel Iglesias. I snagged several shares of him heading into yesterday. In some leagues, it was to use his start. In others, I just wanted a player with upside to stash. However, Homer Bailey is scheduled to return to the rotation next week in Iglesias’ spot. Jason Marquis may eventually lose his job, but that won’t happen for weeks if not months.
In all but the deepest leagues, the right answer is to set Iglesias free. Despite mediocre results, he had an encouraging outing. I’m convinced he’s a mixed league pitcher when on the big league roster. I’m not sure if he’s a guy who will often throw more than five or six innings.
Iglesias works from two arm angles using three pitches. He might only throw his changeup from the overhand arm slot. The fastball runs 91 to 94 mph. When he comes from the side, he has good arm side run. The overhand slider is mostly vertical while the sidearm slider has good side-to-side movement.
I can’t tell for certain, but he appears to tip which delivery he’ll use from first movement. Anything that makes it easier to pick up on his arm angle is to his disadvantage. Here’s him putting a sidearm fastball past Matt Holliday (click into it).
3. Daily DFS – Twins/Royals, Rodriguez
Early: There isn’t much to work with in the early contest with just six games. I’m looking for left-handed hitting Royals against Trevor May and right-handed hitting Twins versus Danny Duffy. It’s expected to be the highest scoring game of the time slot.
Mike Moustakas tends to bat up in the order against righties. He costs just $2,900. I’m not a big buyer on him as a true breakout candidate, but the situation and price are advantageous. Brian Dozier is a nice option for a second baseman. Both hitters have big platoon splits.
Late: Eight games are late, although two may be rained out. Atlanta and Texas are in for some stormy weather.
Alex Rodriguez will face Orioles lefty Wei-Yin Chen. Our old buddy ARod seems to be squaring up the baseball while avoiding ground balls. His whiff rate is somewhat concerning, but Chen isn’t a big strikeout guy. Rodriguez should lift a few shots to the outfield. While Camden Yards only boosts righty power by eight percent, he’s one of the better bets for a home run tonight. If you’d like a more reliable asset, Chase Headley can be had for $100 less than Rodriguez.
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Greene, Baker, Schoop, Pompey
Pitchers to Start: In his start against the Twins, Shane Greene lasted eight innings. He allowed no runs with five strikeouts and a 14 percent whiff rate. Greene has a five pitch repertoire which includes a plus slider and cutter. He’ll face a tougher lineup tomorrow in Pittsburgh, but he’ll also face the pitcher. He should be owned outright in nearly all 12 team formats.
Pitchers to Exploit: Scott Baker had a rough spring with the Yankees, although he did post 10 strikeouts against no walks in 10.1 innings (also 14 hits and nine runs). Now with the Dodgers for a spot start, Baker will face the Mariners. Seattle has a handful of potent left-handed hitters to use against Baker. He’s a fly ball pitcher, which doesn’t match well with Dodger Stadium. Left-handed home run power is boosted eight percent.
Hitters (power): Jonathan Schoop is a guy I’m watching closely this season. I’m not convinced he’s a 12 team mixed asset yet, but he has the necessary upside. He’s a guy who should hit 20 home runs in a full season. The bigger issue is his batting average and role in the lineup. If he keeps blasting big home runs, he’ll start landing on fantasy rosters. He’ll face lefty CC Sabathia tomorrow.
Hitters (speed): Dalton Pompey has a prominent role in the Blue Jays. However, he won’t hold the second spot in the lineup unless he hits. He’s a potential five category asset, but I see a lot of Jackie Bradley Jr. in him. As such, I expect to see hiccups. Some players can improve rapidly, so it’s not entirely damning to compare him to Bradley. He’ll face mediocre righty Matt Andriese.
5. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
You won’t see it in the grid below, but there are some windy stadiums in play today. Try to use a resource like DailyBaseballData to track game time conditions. Wind can have a big effect on player value if it’s going in a steady direction.
The Rangers and Braves look like a no-go today, but those storm risks could evaporate in the next 12 hours.
The Link. Many of those green stadiums we were using yesterday are gone, so you’ll have to take some hitters in merely decent environments.
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