7 Hitters with HR/FB Rate Upside

As we head into the trade deadline, this time of year marks the unofficial fantasy league deadline for when trades might still have some effect on the standings. So let’s use the batted ball distance leaderboard to identify those batters with strong distance marks, but HR/FB rates that don’t quite measure up. These seven hitters all seemingly have some upside over the final two months, assuming they sustain their distances.

Though he has rebounded after a poor April, Andrew McCutchen hasn’t been quite McCutchian this season, largely thanks to just five steals and his lowest BABIP since 2011. And while his HR/FB rate it at its lowest mark since 2010, his batted ball distance is actually the second highest mark of his career. We don’t know how much his lack of stolen base activity is due to his early season knee problems and how much is due to just aging, but his power looks as good as ever. But perhaps because his Pull% has dipped below 40% for the first time, he is costing himself some long balls. I cannot say for sure that four months of this means it’s a conscious decision and to expect it to continue or if it’s just a small sample fluke and he’ll be pulling it more the rest of the way though.

Moving out of a top home run park and into a park that suppresses right-handed homers meant that Brett Lawrie had been removed for my annual sleeper list. And sure enough, his HR/FB rate is down and he’s sporting just a 5.9% mark at home, versus a 17.2% mark on the road. But the Oakland Coliseum isn’t that much of a terror on right-handed power! Lawrie’s distance is up about 23 feet from last year, which if I had run the distance gainers, would certainly rank him among the top. It’s unfortunate he plays in a pitcher’s park now as he could have been an intriguing breakout candidate for next year. Though he may be selling out for power a bit given the jump in SwStk% and strikeout rate. I think it’s easiest just to call him a man of mystery.

Because he’s hitting just .238 and has a pathetic combined 56 RBI+R, Brad Miller won’t be appreciated for his solid power/speed mix he has provided owners this season. His batted ball distance is up 22 feet from last year though, but his HR/FB rate, while up, hasn’t risen enough to match that huge boost in distance. All it’s going to take is a little bit of better BABIP luck and another small spike in HR/FB rate and he’ll once again be everyone’s favorite sleeper heading into next season.

A quick search on my favorite injury and transactions database tells me that Troy Tulowitzki only missed a couple of games all season long for just one injury! Amazing! With only that information at hand, you would assume that Tulo would be having the type of season that gives him enough counting stats to put him in the MVP conversation. Not so! His wOBA is at its lowest mark since 2008, and his ISO has dipped below .200 for only the second time since that year. His HR/FB rate, not surprisingly is also at its lowest point since that fateful year. And yet, his distance is up five feet from last year and generally in line with his past history. His Pull% is nearly as high as ever and his FB% sits at a career high. The ever present possibility of an extended DL stint being right around the corner always makes it difficult to acquire him via trade. But owners should feel better that a more Tuloesque two months should be on their way to end the season.

Adam LaRoche presented an interesting projection quagmire for me. On the one hand, he’s 35 and clearly in the decline phase of his career. On the other, he was departing a park with a left-handed home run factor of just 95 for one that sports a 106 mark. That’s a rather substantial swing and I figured any age-related decline would be offset by the park switch. That hasn’t been the case, as his HR/FB rate has dropped back down, while he’s both pulling the ball less often and hitting a lower rate of fly balls. Yet his distance sits at a four year high, which suggests the power in his bat still remains. The biggest issue I hadn’t foreseen was his sudden inability to make contact. His strikeout rate has skyrocketed to a new career high, though his SwStk% doesn’t suggest it should be that bad. That said, a big increase in strikeout rate is a pretty good sign that an older player is on his last legs, so despite the apparent existence of his power, I’d only consider buying in an AL-Only league, assuming he came cheaply.

Mark Trumbo had a much better shot of enjoying a rest of season home run surge had he stayed in Arizona. That park sports a right-handed homer factor of 105, versus just a 97 mark at Safeco in Seattle. It’s a small sample and not all that significant, but do observe that his HR/FB while with Arizona was nearly double what he has posted while with the Mariners. That said, his distance has been extremely consistent since 2011, as it has sat in the 291 to 297 range every single year. And although his distance the last two years have sat near the top of that range, his HR/FB rate has declined. If he finds himself back in a better park next year and actually has a full-time job (something that isn’t guaranteed given his lack of defensive ability), he’ll be a sleeper.

Kris Bryant, disappointment? Some certainly must be thinking this. After posting ISO marks well above .300 at every minor league stop in his career (an extraordinary achievement!), Bryant currently sports just a .193 mark, with a surprisingly mediocre 12.4% HR/FB rate. He’s striking out as often as we expected, but even with a .347 BABIP (something I think is highly unsustainable given his near 50% fly ball rate), he’s still batting just .252. But his distance comes as good news. The average HR/FB rate of the five hitters above him and below him in distance is 16.3%, well above Bryant’s current mark. He’s hitting tons of flies, pulling the ball, and hitting it far. He could easily post a 20% HR/FB rate the rest of the way and no one will be surprised.