6 Tidbits: Week of August 20th

Only 6, what gives?! I know, I know, but this article would’ve gotten a bit out of hand in terms of length if I included four more. We’ll be back at 10 next week. By the way, if there’s someone you want me to cover in this piece, please include them in the comments and I’ll gladly take a look.

Robbie Grossman is Raking

Grossman smacked his 4th HR on Monday night, pushing his line to .288/.447/.627 and chipping in 4 SBs with those home runs. He’s always had a strong plate profile with a 13% BB rate and 21% K rate heading into this year, but it yielded essentially a league average line at a 102 wRC+. He’s still walking a ton – a career-high 18% in fact – and he’s actually striking out less than ever at 16% so what’s the difference? He’s attacking a lot more in hitter and even counts.

Grossman has dialed up his swing rate in hitter counts and the results are flowing in. He’s making contact at a 93% clip, tied for 7th-best in the league and only Daniel Murphy is swinging more (62%) than Grossman’s 46% rate in those situations. The attack-heavy approach has delivered a 1.484 OPS in hitter’s counts, well above the 1.164 league average.

In even counts last year, he had a .961 OPS which was essentially league average (.959), but this year he’s lapping the field with an MLB-best 1.925 mark (Jesse Winker is 2nd at 1.717) in 29 PA. All told, 47 of his 77 PA have come in those situations and he’s hitting .452/.638/1.097 with all four of his homers. His 1.735 OPS in those counts trails only Winker at 1.768. He has a firm hold on the strong side of the left field job and the A’s only have three lefties on the schedule over the next two weeks (though planning too far out is a dangerous game this year).

Jesse Winker is Smashing Lefties

Winker is having a fantastic season with a 214 wRC+ which is tied with Brandon Lowe for 2nd-highest (min. 60 PA) along with 5 HR and 1 SB. The DH in the National League has been a boon for the defensively challenged Winker as he’s settled in as Cincinnati’s full-timer in that role. The biggest change for Winker is that he’s hitting well against lefties. It’s only been 16 PA, but he has a .333/.500/.667 line which is better than his last two seasons of OPS added together (1.133).

Call me crazy, but I’m certain the .750 BABIP won’t hold, buuuut I love that the Reds are actually allowing to start against lefties because that’s the only way he’s going to get better. He has started against the last three lefties they’ve faced. I’ll be keeping a close eye on Winker’s lefty performance going forward because if there’s some realness to this surge, he can be one of the league’s premier hitters.

The Orioles Offense is… Good?

Baltimore’s 112 wRC+ is 6th-highest in the league aiding them to a surprising 12-11 record thus far. Among their nine regulars, only two are below a 130 wRC+, though they are waaay below it with Austin Hays at 46 (recently hit the IL) and Chris Davis toting an impossibly low 4.

Yep… 4.

Their catchers are pacing the league with a 182 wRC+ and 1.4 WAR as both Pedro Severino (174 in 67 PA) and Chance Sisco (196 in 37 PA) have been great. Severino trails just J.T. Realmuto (8) in home runs with 5 while Sisco’s .321 AVG is 5th-best among the 41 catchers with at least 30 PA, though is comically high .636 BABIP is doing a lot of the work and his 41% K rate suggests the bottom could fall out quickly.

Other standouts include Anthony Santander (7 HR, 142 wRC+, MLB-best 22 RBI), Renato Nunez (.307 AVG, 5 HR, 161 wRC+), Hanser Alberto (.326 AVG, 17 R, 130 wRC+), Rio Ruiz (6 HR, 12 RBI, 135 wRC+), and Jose Iglesias (4th-best .400 AVG, 163 wRC+). It’s so fitting for the utterly insane year of 2020 that four Orioles are widely rostered in all formats (Santander, Alberto, Severino, and Nunez are all 100% in NFBC 12-teamers and they’re all at least 83% rostered in ESPN 10-teamers).

Anthony Santander is Leading the Baltimore Charge

The switch-hitting outfielder quietly hit 20 HR in 405 PA last year, but his .261/.297/.476 line likely didn’t catch the eye of too many fantasy players. Anyone drafting him was likely doing so based primarily on playing time, but they have been treated to one of the best seasons thus far. He has 9 HR while leading the American League in runs (20) and RBIs (25). His line is a robust .298/.333/.702 with the bulk of his good work coming against righties (1.083 OPS). He’s only 3-for-14 against lefties, but two of those three hits have gone for extra bases.

There are multiple underlying changes behind this surge. He has sliced his strikeout rate from 21% to 12% while raising his hard-hit rate to career-best 43% and bumping his launch angle from 15 to 22 degrees. He already has 9 barrels, good for a 9% mark that is 9th among batters with at least 50 batted ball events. His sweet spot rate has jumped nine points to 40%, slotting him 16th just ahead of Trent Grisham, Brandon Lowe, and Jorge Soler who are all also tearing the cover off the ball.

Santander’s 55-60 raw power was the best mark on his scouting profile back in 2018 when he slotted 12th on our Orioles list, but he had just a 30-game power. He’s clearly playing closer to that raw power mark in game and the results have been huge. With these improvements, there’s reason to believe Santander has some staying power as an all-formats outfielder. If the Orioles offense continues to perform as a whole, he could be one of the biggest breakouts of 2020.

Brandon Lowe’s is Crushing the Ball

Lowe had a half-season breakout last year that included a 125 wRC+, 17 HR, and 5 SB in 327 PA. This generated some interest, but he was still going outside the Top 200 (210 in the Main Event) despite the strong performance and dual eligibility at 2B and OF. Those who bought in have been rewarded handsomely as the 25-year old is hitting .337/.412/.744 with 8 HR, 23 RBI, and 21 R in 97 PA.

He has shaved his strikeout rate down from 35% to 23% as he’s chasing less and making more contact out of the strike zone. His 23% Barrel rate is second to only Miguel Sano (23.3%) as he’s smashing both lefties and righties. In fact, his filthy 1.500 OPS against lefties in 30 PA has made him a full-time player for the Rays. He hasn’t stolen any bases yet, but that was never the driving force behind drafting him and it’s impossible to be upset by his production.

Chad Kuhl’s Development

Kuhl has slowly ramped up and made it through five innings his last time out on 78 pitches. The 27-year old righty has leaned on his breaking balls, particularly his slider, to generate a 33% K rate in 14 innings of work. He’s using his fastball just 39% of the time with the slider at 37% and curveball at 20%. His walk (7%), swinging strike (13%), and hit (6.4) rates are all tracking at career-bests and I hope the Pirates allow him to push further into the 80-95 pitch count range so he can get 5-6 innings regularly. He’s only rostered in 5% of the Rotowire Online Championship (12-team leagues) so there’s wide availability and he’s on the cusp of all-formats viability. At the very least, he’s a worthy streamer.