6 AL Starting Pitchers Throwing Harder

Every spring training, we make a big to do about fastball velocity. We may even remember to monitor it for the first start of the season. Whose velocity is up, hinting at a breakout? Whose velocity is down, suggesting either a hidden injury or a disappointing year is on the way? Then we totally forget about it and rarely discuss it again. Velocity does rise throughout the year, but some pitchers gain more than others, obviously. Sometimes better health or a slight tweak in mechanics mid-season could increase velocity, aside from just the warmer weather that generally lifts all boats. So here are seven pitchers whose fastball velocity has jumped in May, compared to April.

Michael Pineda has had an incredible 11 start run. He has maintained the impeccable control he displayed last season, but has boosted his strikeout rate back up to above pre-surgery levels. Not surprisingly, after returning from shoulder surgery last season, his fastball velocity was down more than two miles per hour. And in April, it was down another mile and a half. It didn’t effect his performance, but it was still worth monitoring. But in May, his velocity rebounded by nearly two miles an hour, and it sat above his mark from last season. This is great news and means it’s no longer something to be concerned about. Once the Yankees learn how to play defense, his ERA is going to look mighty impressive in short order.

In April, Jered Weaver’s velocity was down to a laughable 83.1 mph. That was a decline of more than three miles per hour from last season. Weaver has never had plus velocity and it has steadily declined, but 83.1 was at a level that you had to truly wonder how much longer he could survive. Well, his velocity did improve in May, but a jump to just below 85 still represents about a mile and a hour drop from last year. It’s no surprise then that the SwStk% on both his four-seamer and signature changeup are sitting at career lows. He has compensated by throwing a career high rate of strikes, but with a pathetic strikeout rate and so far a loss of his ability to suppress homers on fly balls, he’s going to remain worthless in mixed leagues. I can’t even be sure he’ll earn anything in AL-Only leagues the rest of the way.

Matt Shoemaker’s velocity was down about two miles per hour from last year, crossing the important 90 mph threshold. But his velocity creeped back up to near 90 mph last month. It’s important for him since his fastball isn’t very good, and a fly ball pitcher with a bad fastball is highly problematic. He still has that nice 3.59 SIERA, but I would be concerned about a future decline in strikeout rate.

In that same strikeout rate downside piece linked to in Shoemaker’s capsule, I suggested selling high on Trevor Bauer. Wow, that was quick. His implosion yesterday will make it a little more difficult now to get that same value. The concern was that his velocity had dropped over two miles per hour from last year, after he rediscovered the velocity that made him a top prospect. It rebounded some in May, but it’s still down over a mile per hour. Since that improved control seems like mostly a fluke, I would cross my fingers that his next start or two are really good to provide a last opportunity to sell him.

In 2013, David Price’s fastball velocity fell by two miles per hour. It took his strikeout rate along with it, but he compensated by slashing his walk rate. In April, his velocity was identical to last year, which signified that the erosion had halted. But in May, it jumped back above 94 mph again. After last year, we know that Price doesn’t necessarily need velocity to post strong skills, but it does provide some optimism that his strikeout rate rises from its current mark.

The luck Gods cared little for Anibal Sanchez’s velocity increase, as his 5.97 May ERA was even worse than his inflated 5.46 ERA in April. After enjoying a velocity spike in 2013, he wasn’t able to maintain the gains last year, and to open this season, his velocity was back to his pre-2013 levels. In May though, his velocity had jumped higher than any non-2013 season. His last start makes it a little more difficult to buy low now, but he’s still worth targeting. I’d easily take him over Bauer the rest of the way.