#2xSP: 9.5-9.11

Alright so we’re back here for another edition of #2xSP. There aren’t many left of these this year, so maybe it’s time to reflect, or at least look forward. I think a reasonably fair goal is to keep the ERA under 4.00, strikeouts above 8.0 per nine innings and maybe, just maybe sneak that K/BB up over 3.0. It’s fair to say this year has gone markedly better than last: 4.66 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 2.2 K/BB and 1.41 WHIP, and this year is more consistent with the previous two years in the now four-year (?!?) track record of this column.

Here’s where we stand so far this season:

42-40 record
3.95 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.33 WHIP
59 quality starts
Real-world equivalent: roughly Jake Odorizzi?

Here are this week’s recs (with opponents wRC+ in parentheses):

LHP Tyler Anderson – 20.6% ESPN – v. SFG (101), @SDP (87)

With Anderson it flat out boils down to the fact that I love him. I love a guy who can get strikeouts (8.3 K/9), grounders (53.5%) and doesn’t walk many (2.2 BB/9), and that is even more true at Coors Field. He’s posted a 3.43 ERA that checks out peripherally, and I just don’t see that many red flags with him after 15 MLB starts. I’m cautiously optimistic he can handle Coors long-term, as he’s posted a 3.11 ERA at home versus a 4.21 mark on the road, but his opposing batter splits are flipped in that respect. Batters have hit .266/.318/.409 against him at Coors Field, and just .211/.267/.383 on the road. Even if the answer is somewhere in the middle, I think he’s a really solid guy moving forward.

LHP Brandon Finnegan – 29.4% ESPN – v. NYM (95), @PIT (97)

The walks are the first thing that jumps out at you — he leads the NL — but Finnegan has been a drastically better pitcher in the second half. His so-so 4.19 season ERA splits out to 4.71 in the first half, and just 3.21 in the second. Before the break, opposing batters had a .766 OPS against him, and since just a mark of .707. He’s up to 9.1 K/9 in the second half after a mark of 6.5 in the first half, and after a 73-53 K/BB ratio in the first half, he’s now at 54-19 in the second. This is a guy obviously trending in the right direction, and has a couple of pretty good matchups coming up. It’s hard to bank on the Reds offense supporting him, but since we’re counting quality starts it’s still a good move.

RHP Luke Weaver – 16.9% ESPN – @PIT (97), v. MIL (89)

We’re taking Weaver here over Jerad Eickhoff — @MIA, @WAS — due in large part to the latter’s struggles on the road — that’s a couple of solid offenses, too — but let’s now downplay the youngster. The matchup with the Brewers is nice — he already struck out 10 of them in his most recent start — but he should also be able to hold his own against a fading Pirates offense which collectively hit just .238/.322/.370 last month — an 89 wRC+ which ranked 25th overall. Weaver has looked pretty solid in his first four MLB starts, with a 3.86 ERA (4.14 FIP) and perhaps most impressively, 26-7 K/BB ratio in 21 innings (11.1 K/9, 3.7 K/BB). I always like to bet on Cardinals pitching prospects/youngsters — as long as they’re healthy.