#2xSP: 8.8-8.14
Woof. After getting all excited about how Week 14 had started — and it still finished with a solid 2.52 ERA — the wheels came off last week a bit. Then again, we still have Dylan Bundy we can bond over, right? Right?!?
Hopefully this week will be better, as three names really stuck out to me while preparing for this week’s column. Or perhaps more accurately, there were three decent names and a fair amount of ‘meh’.
Here’s a look at the season numbers cobbled together thus far:
32-29 record
3.99 ERA
8.0 K/9
3.0 BB/9
1.31 WHIP
47 quality starts
Here at this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parentheses):
RHP Collin McHugh – 33.6% ESPN – @MIN (99), @TOR (103)
There’s good and bad wherever you look with McHugh, who has a 4.73 ERA and 1.48 WHIP this season, but has also managed a solid 121-35 K/BB ratio through 121.2 innings. He was absolutely battered in his penultimate start against the Tigers (eight earned, just four outs recorded) but pretty much all of his starts around it have been pretty good. In his last eight starts, save the Tigers outing, he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in each, with a quality start in seven of those eight. It’ll be interesting to see how he handles the Blue Jays in such close proximity; last start he also faced them, and threw six innings, allowing three earned runs — three solo home runs — with 10 strikeouts and just one walk.
RHP Kevin Gausman – 22.6% ESPN – @OAK (92), @SFG (102)
Gausman as well was roughed up by the Blue Jays in his second-to-last start, but rebounded with a good outing against the Rangers on Wednesday night, holding them to two earned runs in seven innings with seven whiffs and just a single walk. Gausman too has been decent of late, though the tough start against the Blue Jays derailed (4.88 ERA) an otherwise solid July (3.28 otherwise with a 26-5 K/BB ratio in 24.2 innings). I’ll always gamble on this kind of talent anyway, unless you really feel like starting someone like Hector Santiago, R.A. Dickey or Kendall Graveman.
LHP Tyler Anderson – 12.8% ESPN – v. TEX (95), @PHI (79)
Anderson was solid as the Rockies pounded the Dodgers on Wednesday by a 12-2 score, as he held Los Angeles to two earned runs on six hits over seven innings. That’s now three quality starts in a row, and nine starts of three or fewer earned runs in his first 10 big league outings. We all may be waiting for the other shoe to drop here, but there’s a lot to like about Anderson, who through 10 starts has a 3.25 ERA (3.14 FIP) in spite of a .328 BABIP. First of all, who doesn’t love grounders? Especially for a guy who pitches at Coors? Anderson has a groundball rate of 54.9 percent, which is great in isolation and even better when paired with 7.7 K/9 and a meager 1.8 BB/9 rate. Again, the shoe could drop at any minute, but I really like this week for him. That Phillies matchup has strong quality start potential written all over it.
In addition to Rotographs, Warne writes about the Minnesota Twins for The Athletic and is a sportswriter for Sportradar U.S. in downtown Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter @Brandon_Warne, or feel free to email him to do podcasts or for any old reason at brandon.r.warne@gmail-dot-com
Brandon – what’s your take on Mike Fiers’ two start week? Obviously, he’s not same caliber as the guys you listed, but would you consider starting him at all? He’s been much better at home.