#2xSP: 8.1-8.7

After an incredible first half of week 14 — 0.90 ERA, 3-for-3 in quality starts, 17-2 K/BB ratio and 0.55 WHIP — we’re feeling pretty good heading into week 15. Here’s how things have shook out so far this season:

30-27 record
3.87 ERA
8.2 K/9
3.0 K/BB
1.30 WHIP
45 quality starts

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wRC+ in parentheses:

RHP Jimmy Nelson – 21.6% ESPN – @SDP (92), @ARI (95)

It might be a tough sell on Nelson, who has decent enough numbers this year but is a) coming off getting absolutely rocked by the Diamondbacks (whom he sees on the back end this week) and b) walks way, way too many batters. He’s got the third most walks in the NL (55) and has given up his share of extra-base hits as well, so while his .255 BAA looks impressive, he’s sporting a triple-slash against of .255/.344/.403. So while that doesn’t look all that appetizing, it came down to him or Adam Conley (Cubs and Rockies both at home), Archie Bradley (also getting largely rocked; will likely face Nelson on Saturday) or James Paxton (Red Sox and Angels). So….we’re playing the matchups here, kind of.

RHP Dylan Bundy – 10.8% ESPN – v. TEX (94), @CWS (89)

It’s certainly a risky play, but against a couple below average offenses — it’s especially nice to get Texas on the road — we’ll give him a spin. He’s been pretty solid in his last two starts, with a combined three earned runs over 10.2 innings with 13 strikeouts and just one walk. It’s hard to believe this was a guy who was striking out nobody in mop-up work in the O’s bullpen, but he’s getting to a point now where he’ll probably be entrusted to throw 90-95 pitches against the Rangers and maybe push it to 100 against the Pale Hose. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Bundy’s last two starts is that he’s got a combined 24 swinging strikes — at a rate of 14 percent overall. I think this is a sneaky good play here. For fun, check out his ascending K/9 by month:

April – 2.0
May – 6.0
June – 9.2
July – 13.2

RHP Kyle Gibson – 4.6% ESPN – @CLE (102), @TBR (96)

I’m probably the high man on Gibson, whose season ERA finally dipped under 5.00 after his last start. Of course, it’s worth noting that it came against baseball’s finest offense, as he stymied the Red Sox for eight innings with just two hits and an earned run — a leadoff home run to Mookie Betts. Since the Red Sox blew him up in his first start coming off the DL at Target Field on June 11 — which as you may see, he rebounded from well last time out — he’s been pretty steady over his last seven starts: 3.60 ERA, .681 OPS against and 38-12 K/BB ratio in 45 innings pitched. If the sinker’s diving, Gibson’s thriving.