#2xSP: 5.2-5.8

UPDATE: Ricky Nolasco is starting Sunday and is no longer eligible. We’re rolling with Chris Tillman (v. NYY, v. OAK) instead.

The torrid pace with which we’ve started the season has tempered. Like a step dad, I’m not exactly mad about the early-season results, just disappointed. Here’s where we are through half of Week 3:

6-6 record
4.00 ERA
87.2 total innings
8.3 K/9
2.7 K/BB
1.36 WHIP

Here’s the link to the spreadsheet if you’d like to check it out.

On to this week’s recs (with opponents’ team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP Ricky Nolasco – 9.7% ESPN – @HOU (108), @CWS (90)

It feels about as clunky as the George W. Bush “fool me once” quote, but Nolasco feels like a decent enough recommendation based on his solid start. Through four starts he’s got plenty of whiffs (7.8 K/9) especially compared to walks (1.0 BB/9), is inducing grounders at a rate he’s never come close to (48.7%), and in part is riding the wave of a flukishly-low BABIP to a four-game solid stretch to start the season. Still, I’m enthused by how he’s attacking the strike zone; his first-pitch strike rate of 59.4% is his highest as a Twin, and his 51.3% zone rate is the highest he’s had since 2008. He’s healthy and he’s finding the strike zone with so-so stuff, propped up by a pretty good slider. He’s not a mixed-league year-long difference maker, but if that’s what you’re looking for you’re in the wrong place. I think he’ll give you enough in the short term here; I also think that’s what the Twins are hoping for between now and say a certain date in late July….

RHP Nate Karns – 8.8% ESPN – @OAK (88), @HOU (108)

It’s been an up-and-down start to the season for Karns — literally, his ER by starts is 4-1-4-0 — but he’s getting enough strikeouts and keeping hitters off the bases (.226 BAA) enough for me to give him some run here. The walks, as always, are concerning — 24-12 K/BB in 22.1 innings — but I take solace in the fact that nobody is walking less as an offense than the A’s right now. The Astros swing that pendulum pretty high (seventh at 9.4 percent), but I’m taking a chance here. He’s already faced both of these teams this season too, which gives me some pause. Still, it’s an uninspiring bunch of guys to choose from this week. Anyway, here’s what Karns did against each team earlier this year:

April 9 – Oakland – 5 IP, 4 ER, 6-1 K/BB (loss)
April 26 – Houston – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6-3 K/BB (win)

RHP Bartolo Colon – 17.4% ESPN – v. ATL (59), @SD (79)

Jackpot. I was originally trying to decide between Brandon Finnegan and Jimmy Nelson — and super unenthused about each — before stumbling upon this graceful beauty. Everything about Bartolo is phenomenal — why do you think he’s reached such cult status on baseball twitter — but you really can’t beat these matchups. The Braves are far and away the worst offense in baseball — they’re slugging .288, the Pirates are hitting .294 — and only the Reds and Phillies separate them from the Padres. Either way, two bottom-five offenses against a guy who is not only ageless, but off to a nice start: 8.0 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, 3.42 ERA and 3.36 FIP.