2B Ranking Using Bill James 2012 Projections

Yesterday, the Bill James’s Projections were added to all the player pages here at Fangraphs. Bill James’s numbers seem to be on the optimistic side and are probably not regressed as much as other projection systems. It is all we have to work with for now though. With the projection numbers, I ranked the players according to their value among other 2B using Zach Sander’s formula for finding fantasy above replacement values.

Here are the ranking with some gaps at breaks in the data:

Name	PA	R	RBI	HR	AVG	SB	Ranking Value
Ian Kinsler	647	108	78	25	0.271	25	6.7
Robinson Cano	671	96	101	25	0.302	5	5.9
Dustin Pedroia	642	95	73	17	0.299	17	5.1
Brandon Phillips	663	91	79	19	0.279	15	4.0
Chase Utley	570	85	79	21	0.280	14	3.9
Jason Kipnis	557	88	69	18	0.272	18	3.3
Ben Zobrist	646	88	80	18	0.262	18	3.3
Michael Cuddyer	646	86	85	21	0.275	8	2.9
Danny Espinosa	623	83	74	25	0.248	19	2.9
Dan Uggla	673	95	92	33	0.251	2	2.9
Michael Young	633	81	82	13	0.306	5	2.9
Howie Kendrick	601	80	74	14	0.287	13	2.7
Rickie Weeks	605	95	62	22	0.262	12	2.2
Neil Walker	649	77	88	15	0.273	9	1.9
Jemile Weeks	583	68	51	4	0.279	28	1.6
Johnny Giavotella	551	65	60	7	0.295	12	0.7
Kelly Johnson	589	78	62	19	0.251	13	0.5
Daniel Murphy	497	60	64	10	0.302	6	0.4
Dustin Ackley	697	82	60	11	0.255	14	0.0
Martin Prado	553	72	56	11	0.289	4	-0.3
Ryan Raburn	476	64	66	18	0.264	4	-0.8
Sean Rodriguez	462	66	57	15	0.252	12	-1.0
Aaron Hill	516	62	61	14	0.256	11	-1.0
Ryan Roberts	472	61	51	14	0.255	14	-1.1
Omar Infante	560	62	54	8	0.291	4	-1.2
Orlando Hudson	561	68	51	8	0.263	13	-1.2
Gordon Beckham	549	70	61	13	0.256	6	-1.5
Allen Craig	318	43	50	13	0.288	3	-2.1
Maicer Izturis	473	59	48	5	0.272	10	-2.2
Freddy Sanchez	487	53	47	6	0.284	1	-3.2
Brian Roberts	330	44	29	5	0.274	13	-3.3
Ryan Theriot	456	52	34	2	0.278	9	-3.5
Mark Ellis	450	49	45	8	0.255	9	-3.6
Justin Turner	393	45	39	5	0.271	6	-4.1
Chone Figgins	316	38	22	2	0.261	16	-4.6
Darwin Barney	321	36	25	2	0.275	6	-5.4
Robert Andino	296	34	24	4	0.253	7	-6.4
Tsuyoshi Nishioka	506	30	43	0	0.241	4	-7.3

• First, I would not be to worried about someone being a spot or two lower than expected. The key is to look at the Ranking Value and compare it to other players.

• The top 5 2B all seem pretty reasonable, but from 6 on down there could be much controversy.

• The rankings like Jason Kipnis quite a bit. Personally, I am not putting him at the same level as others around him. Johnny Giavotella is another player ranked higher than I expected. I don’t know if the Royals think he is the answer at 2B, so I could see playing time being a huge issue in 2012.

• Dustin Ackley has little love except being predicted to some how have the most PA among 2B. Kelly Johnson is another player that is lower than I expected.

Some players have their values down because of playing time (ex. Ryan and Brian Roberts). To even out the numbers for playing time, here are the players ranked with their stats adjusted for 600 PAs:

Name	Runs	RBI	HR	AVG	SB	Ranking Value
Ian Kinsler	100	72	23	0.271	23	5.4
Robinson Cano	86	90	22	0.302	4	4.5
Chase Utley	89	83	22	0.280	15	4.5
Jason Kipnis	95	74	19	0.272	19	4.1
Allen Craig	81	94	25	0.288	6	4.0
Dustin Pedroia	89	68	16	0.299	16	3.7
Brandon Phillips	82	71	17	0.279	14	2.0
Howie Kendrick	80	74	14	0.287	13	1.9
Rickie Weeks	94	61	22	0.262	12	1.7
Michael Young	77	78	12	0.306	5	1.6
Danny Espinosa	80	71	24	0.248	18	1.6
Ben Zobrist	82	74	17	0.262	17	1.5
Michael Cuddyer	80	79	20	0.275	7	1.5
Sean Rodriguez	86	74	19	0.252	16	1.5
Ryan Raburn	81	83	23	0.264	5	1.4
Dan Uggla	85	82	29	0.251	2	1.4
Daniel Murphy	72	77	12	0.302	7	1.3
Brian Roberts	80	53	9	0.274	24	0.4
Ryan Roberts	78	65	18	0.255	18	0.3
Neil Walker	71	81	14	0.273	8	0.2
Johnny Giavotella	71	65	8	0.295	13	0.0
Jemile Weeks	70	52	4	0.279	29	-0.2
Kelly Johnson	79	63	19	0.251	13	-0.3
Aaron Hill	72	71	16	0.256	13	-0.6
Martin Prado	78	61	12	0.289	4	-0.7
Maicer Izturis	75	61	6	0.272	13	-1.5
Gordon Beckham	77	67	14	0.256	7	-1.7
Chone Figgins	72	42	4	0.261	30	-1.7
Orlando Hudson	73	55	9	0.263	14	-2.3
Omar Infante	66	58	9	0.291	4	-2.3
Justin Turner	69	60	8	0.271	9	-2.6
Mark Ellis	65	60	11	0.255	12	-3.0
Dustin Ackley	71	52	9	0.255	12	-3.3
Freddy Sanchez	65	58	7	0.284	1	-3.5
Ryan Theriot	68	45	3	0.278	12	-3.7
Robert Andino	69	49	8	0.253	14	-3.7
Darwin Barney	67	47	4	0.275	11	-3.7
Tsuyoshi Nishioka	36	51	0	0.241	5	-9.7

• Allen Craig (not 2B qualified in all leagues, but added per a reader’s request) takes a huge jump. Craig, along with Jason Kipnis, jump ahead of Dustin Pedroia. This discrepancy is where this projection system doesn’t regress enough. There is no way a player with little MLB experience should have more talent than established MLB stars. Putting each player at 600 PA is not a huge reach for all 3 in 2012. Having Kipnis and Craig putting up stats at a higher rate than Pedroia is a problem.

• Dustin Ackley falls into the Mark Ellis and Freddy Sanchez level. I don’t even hate him that much.

The first 2012 projections are out. While not the best system, the Bill James Projections give fantasy owners a reference to start evaluating players for 2012.