3 Players I Won’t Draft in 2012

Piggybacking off of Howard Bender’s post from earlier last week, I am going to follow up with three more players that I wouldn’t draft this year either. Sometimes guys fall to you and you have almost no choice but to take them, but these are three guys I won’t be following closely on draft day.

Adam Lind: While I like his opportunity to rack up the RBIs in the middle of what should be a potent Toronto lineup, most of Lind’s game is lackluster and worrisome. Yes, he has hit at least 20 home runs in each of the past three years, but his dwindling average and poor on base skills lead to plenty of easy outs on Lind’s end. In leagues that account for average he is bad and if they account for OBP he is worse. With only one season with a wRC+ over 100, Lind is a below average hitter compared to the league and is far below average compared to first basemen. His best traits, his homers and his RBI total, are not even tremendously impressive.

James Shields: I like Shields and had him in line for a bounce back last year, but he received nearly as much good luck last year as he did bad luck the year before. With very similar K/BB and HR/FB rates over the past two years, the big difference was a .341 BABIP in 2010 compared to a .258 BABIP last year. He induced more ground balls last year, which helped bring that number down, but his career BABIP of .299 looks like the number to expect this season. With his BABIP at a normal rate, his ERA should be somewhere between 3.50-3.80. While that is certainly fine for a rotation, it makes him someone I would pass over for Madison Bumgarner or CJ Wilson.

Jose Valverde: His choke hold lock on the closer spot certainly has value, but a decreasing K/BB ratio is alarming. With a ratio of 3.61 in 2008, Valverde has totaled a K/BB of 1.97 and 2.03 in the past two seasons. With a poor infield defense behind him, more blown saves and a few more runs allowed seems like the likely end result. I would much rather look at Rafael Betancourt or Sergio Santos and draft a bat or starter when Valverde came up in the draft box rather than take Detroit’s closer and suffer the consequences of a pitcher coming off a career year with a below average K/BB rate.