2026 Projection Showdown: THE BAT X vs Steamer wOBA Forecasts

In a just released study, THE BAT X and Steamer were the two best original projection systems last year that were reviewed by FantasyPros and available on this very site. So let’s compare their individual hitter wOBA forecasts and discuss the hitters each is most optimistic on versus the other. Since most projection systems tend to produce similar results, especially the aggregates, it’s always fun to learn about the outliers in the original systems, as they could be the product of factors missed by the other systems or overvalued that leads to inaccurate forecasts.

Note that the unweighted average wOBA projected by THE BAT X is meaningfully lower than Steamer, so it’s more bullish on fewer names and the extent of the bullishness is weaker.

It’s always surprising to find such wide gaps between forecasts for veteran hitters, so it’s especially shocking that the guy THE BAT X is most bullish on compared to Steamer is catcher Will Smith! THE BAT X is forecasting far and away the highest wOBA among all systems on our site, as it’s 0.016 wOBA points above the next highest systems. He’s coming off a career best wOBA and xwOBA, so it’s really a matter of arguing how much regression is appropriate to bake in this year. THE BAT X forecasts significantly more power (higher ISO) than all other systems, a slightly lower strikeout rate, and a higher BABIP than all, except for ATC, which is just higher. Steamer, on the other hand, is the most bearish across the board.

Smith’s 2025 performance was very clearly driven by that .345 BABIP, which crushed his previous career high over a full season. His BABIP had been super consistent year to year, ranging from .273 to .277, making it even more incredible that he suddenly jacked it up so high. I don’t see any real reason to forecast his highest ISO since his first full season in 2021, but I think Steamer is a bit too pessimistic there. I’m going to guess he ends up somewhere in the middle, but closer to Steamer.

After a fantasy breakout in 2024, Brenton Doyle was a big disappointment last season. THE BAT X is projecting almost a full rebound to that 2024 year, while Steamer is playing it more cautiously. Given his age, Coors Field backing, and Statcast metrics, I like THE BAT X’s ISO forecast a bit better, thinking his power should mostly rebound. However, it’s weird to see THE BAT X also projecting a career best BABIP. Overall, I think he makes for a pretty good rebound candidate and would guess he finishes closer to THE BAT X’s bullish forecast.

The projection systems can’t agree on one of the most incredible players of our time, Shohei Ohtani?! After three straight seasons with a wOBA of at least .418, every single system is projecting some sort of regression, which feels right given his age. However, Steamer is the only one below .400, significantly below all the other systems. We have been finding THE BAT X sticking its neck out in bullishness, but this time, they are close to the pack, and it’s Steamer’s neck sticking out with its bearishness.

It’s a combination of the lowest ISO forecast and BABIP among all systems, plus the highest strikeout rate that has resulted in Steamer’s bearish forecast. Until we see any sort of cracks in the armor, I just can’t side with Steamer here. Ohtani is coming off the highest maxEV and Barrel% of his career, so there’s no indication his power is due for decline, though it’s obviously really hard to maintain this level into the 30s.

This was the worst offensive season of J.T. Realmuto’s career since his first full year all the way back in 2015. So how much, if any, will the soon-to-be 35-year-old rebound? That’s on the debate stage today, as Steamer projects further decline, while THE BAT X projects a rebound back near his 2023 and 2024 levels. Much of his weak 2025 was driven by a collapse of his power, as his ISO hit the second lowest mark of his career. His HardHit% and maxEV both remained stable, but his Barrel% slipped back into single digits after three straight double digit marks. With still solid Statcast metrics, you have to assume he should be producing better than a .127 ISO and single digit HR/FB rate. All systems agree, but Steamer’s BABIP projection is by far the lowest and would represent his lowest since 2015.

I am going to have to side with THE BAT X here as I think his power should bounce back and there’s no reason to project such a decline in BABIP.

Gosh, first Ohtani, and now Aaron Judge?! It must be hard for these projection systems to forecast some of the greatest hitters of all time as they must be thinking that surely they can’t do that again. And yet, they just keep doing that. Interestingly, THE BAT X is forecasting a lower walk rate, higher strikeout rate, and lower BABIP than Steamer, but is more bullish thanks to a far higher ISO. Yet, that bullish ISO would still be his lowest since 2021. I guess entering his age 34 season, the percentage play is to assume there’s going to be some decline. If you’re searching for any negative trend, you might note Judge’s lowest HardHit% and Barrel% since 2021, so hey, they are in a downtrend. Of course, they are both still ridiculously elite, especially that Barrel%. I don’t know, dropping to any of these wOBA marks might be seen as a disappointing season, but man, do we really bet against the machine? I’m closing my eyes and going with THE BAT X here.

Brent Rooker first had his coming out party in 2023, then followed up even stronger in 2024. He fell back last season to essentially match his 2023 performance and Steamer forecasts more of the same. THE BAT X, on the other hand, projects a bit of a jump back toward his 2024, though it still forecasts a mark nowhere near that high. The difference is mostly from ISO and BABIP, in which THE BAT X is more bullish. His Statcast metrics remained strong, but his ISO seemed to fall more than it should have. I think he’s definitely set for a rebound in power, more so than Steamer is giving him credit for. The big question is where his strikeout rate goes, as he improved it significantly last year. Somehow, both systems are pretty close. I’m going to go with THE BAT X here thanks to the more optimistic power.

We finally got a 500+ PA season from Mike Trout, the first since 2019, and yet he produced his lowest wOBA…ever. Some of that was due to his lowest ISO ever. The rest was driven by a career worst strikeout rate, which surged above 30% for the first time, despite a SwStk% that was in line with his 2021-2023 seasons. Nearly every system, including THE BAT X and Steamer, is projecting another 30% strikeout rate, and both systems are similar in their BABIP forecasts. So the difference here is mostly from the ISO projection, as THE BAT X is forecasting a larger rebound. Much of the decline in ISO was a sudden lack of doubles, which may be commentary on his foot speed rather than a decline in power. In fact, his Sprint Speed finished a full ft/s less than in 2024 and marked the lowest of his career. His Statcast metrics remain elite, though, so the homers should keep coming. It’ll come down to whether his speed returns to bring his doubles rate back up to historical levels. I say there’s far more upside than downside to all the forecasts, so will side with the bullish one, THE BAT X.

Where on Earth did this come from, Trent Grisham?! Don’t even think about calling him a Yankee Stadium product, as his wOBA was significantly higher on the road! A career best HardHit% and Barrel% fueled a career best HR/FB rate and ISO, though his far less impressive maxEV suggests he didn’t actually get any stronger, but simply hit the ball optimally more frequently. That’s fine, but just makes it less likely to be repeated. The wOBA difference between the two systems is almost entirely driven by the ISO forecasts. Here, THE BAT X is highest and Steamer is the lowest. I’m actually going with Steamer here, as that still represents a mark above his career average.

Now let’s flip over to the hitters Steamer is most bullish on compared to THE BAT X.

Francisco Alvarez missed time to injury last year, but still managed to post the highest wOBA of his short career, with extremely impressive Statcast power metrics. Steamer loves what it sees and projects just minor regression, while THE BAT X not only doesn’t believe last year happened, it’s forecasting a lower wOBA than he has posted in any of his partial seasons. In fact, it’s significantly below every other wOBA forecast, save for its sister system, THE BAT projection.

The disconnect stems from both strikeout rate, in which Steamer is forecasting the lowest of all the systems, and ISO, in which Steamer is forecasting the highest. If Alvarez was able to repeat those Statcast metrics, I believe he would easily match or exceed his Steamer ISO forecast, but there’s no way I’m expecting that to happen. That said, I still think he’ll end up much closer to the Steamer forecast than THE BAT X, which looks oddly pessimistic. However, he should finish in between the strikeout rate forecasts. Overall, this looks like an easy call that Alvarez finishes closer to Steamer’s wOBA forecast, even if he doesn’t quite reach it. I think THE BAT X is far too bearish here.

I really, really felt like Nolan Schanuel was due for a power surge. I mean, it couldn’t get any lower after a .112 ISO during his first full season in 2024, right? Well, it did rise, but only to .125, which hardly qualifies as a surge. Steamer is way out on an optimistic island here with the highest wOBA forecast among all the systems, and higher than he has posted so far, while THE BAT X is well below every system. Remember that power surge expectation? Of course you do, I just typed it a couple of sentences ago. Well, Steamer is forecasting exactly that this year, whereas THE BAT X think his power is actually going to decline. Can you imagine a .101 ISO from a first baseman?! THE BAT X is forecasting that very mark.

Seriously, the Statcast power metrics are quite weak here. His HardHit%, while it increased last year, was still significantly below the league average, while his Barrel% also increased but remained just over half the league average. The glass-half-full perspective is that his maxEV surged, so his strength seemingly increased, but it didn’t translate enough to the other metrics that correlate better with power output. His skill set screams Sean Casey, which means a power spike in him at some point, but it’s anyone’s guess if that’ll be in 2026. Even if it’s not, I can’t imagine THE BAT X being closer here, so will go with the more optimistic Steamer.

After a very strong minor league career, Chase Meidroth posted just a .294 wOBA during his first season in the Majors. Amazingly, THE BAT X is forecasting absolutely no improvement and an identical mark this season, while Steamer is the most bullish of the bunch and forecasting a mini breakout. Steamer is higher across the board than every other system, but I wouldn’t bet on that walk rate projection given the weak power. Why wouldn’t pitchers go right after him? It’s not like they have much to worry about in terms of allowing an extra-base hit. So I think that keeps his walk rate down and he finishes closer to THE BAT X’s super low projection. From an ISO perspective, I think he’ll land between the forecasts. Interestingly, I think he has the best chance of exceeding all BABIP forecasts. Putting it all together, I think he finishes above .300, but probably slightly closer to THE BAT x.

The move to Fenway Park should really help Caleb Durbin’s BABIP surge, yet only Steamer is projecting any sort of meaningful increase. The other difference driving the disconnect is his ISO, which right on theme, is highest from Steamer and lowest from THE BAT X. His Statcast metrics were pretty weak last year, so it doesn’t suggest a whole lot of upside to an already below average ISO. Once again, Fenway is much better for doubles and since he isn’t much of a home run hitter, he won’t be affected much by its less favorable conditions. I’m going with Steamer here.

JJ Wetherholt currently sits atop the depth chart at second base for the Cardinals and projection system disagreements on prospects with a clear path to a regular job could give you an edge, depending on which side you agree more with. The wOBA projections look nearly the same as Durbin, with Steamer the most bullish and THE BAT X far more bearish than any other system. The gap is driven by metrics across the board, but most notably ISO and BABIP. Wetherholt has oddly posted a high HardHit%, but low maxEV at Triple-A, which resulted in a .249 ISO. It’s rare to see such a pairing, and it makes me bearish on his power. Then again, Steamer’s .137 ISO forecast is the highest, so no one is very optimistic about the power. That said, a .114 mark from THE BAT X is quite low. With impressive minor league results, I think THE BAT X is simply too bearish, and although I doubt Steamer’s wOBA mark is reached, Wetherholt should finish closer to it.

Perhaps the most eagerly anticipated arrival last season after crushing minor league pitching, Jac Caglianone was a major disappointment in his 232 PAs, posting just a .239 wOBA. Obviously, every system projects better, but THE BAT X is incredibly more bearish than every other system. Steamer projects a lower strikeout rate and a far higher ISO than THE BAT X. I’m not optimistic he’ll post a strikeout rate as low as Steamer forecasts, though I’d guess it’ll end up closer to that than to one projected by THE BAT X. However, it’s the ISO they are far apart on. Caglianone posted pretty strong Statcast metrics, but somehow finished with an unbelievably low .138 ISO. I think he’ll finish much closer to Steamer’s more bullish projection, so I therefore think he’ll come closer to their wOBA, with a real shot at beating all the systems.

Steven Kwan is not a name I expected to end up in any of these tables. He’s oddly been up and down like a yo-yo over his first four years, starting out strongly, dipping, rebounding, then dipping again. Steamer sees a rebound between his ups and downs, while THE BAT X foresees a further dip to just a .300 wOBA, which would represent a career low. The disagreement primarily stems from his ISO forecast. Steamer is high system on the totem pole, while THE BAT X is lowest…by far. Kwan has posted incredibly weak Statcast metrics, which THE BAT X is definitely reflecting, but I just can’t fathom the sudden drop to a .076 ISO. I do think Steamer’s forecast is a bit too high, but I think Kwan will finish closer to it.

After a breakout 2024 season, Mark Vientos’s power declined and he seriously disappointed last year. How much does he rebound, if any? Steamer projects a big rebound, but finishing in between his two seasons. THE BAT X, on the other hand, projects an even lower wOBA than last year, albeit by just .001 point. Vientos’ Statcast metrics remained strong, though his Barrel% and maxEV did decline, though his HardHit% jumped. I’d think those rates remain strong enough to ensure a rebound back to a .200+ ISO, though THE BAT X is forecasting an even lower ISO than 2025. I just don’t see that as a possibility. I’m going with Steamer here, though his playing time situation remains cloudy thanks to all the team’s free agent signings.