2025 Projection Showdown: OOPSY vs Depth Charts wOBA Forecasts — A Review

This year, a new projection system called OOPSY by Jordan Rosenblum joined our preseason forecasts. I decided to put it to the test by comparing its wOBA projections to those of our Depth Charts to identify the hitters it was most bullish and bearish on. With the final numbers now in the books, let’s see which system more accurately forecasted these players’ wOBA marks.

One note before sharing the results — I discovered that most of the final preseason wOBA projections had changed since I published the original article in late January. Duh, that’s because at the time, the Depth Charts were composed of only Steamer, as opposed to the even mix of Steamer and ZiPS, because the latter hadn’t been published yet. As a result, some of the wOBA differences narrowed, or were completely eliminated, so several of these players would have no longer qualified for the Bullish or Bearish lists. Next season, I’ll wait until sometime in March to run this exercise so we have both forecasts fueling Depth Charts in order to compare.

Well, would you look at that! Out of six hitters OOPSY was most bullish on, the system proved closer on exactly half of them. Let’s discuss the specific names.

I guess it’s pretty understandable for a computer projection system (or a pair of systems like Steamer and ZiPS, which feeds Depth Charts) to forecast some regression for Aaron Judge, who went from an excellent hitter to one of the best of all time beginning in 2022 and has remained at that perch ever since. This was essentially his age 33 season, so you had to assume he wasn’t going to keep up this level. Oops(y)! Instead, Judge enjoyed the best wOBA and second best wRC+ of his career.

Incredibly, he posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career, along with the highest wOBA. I don’t think there are any words left to praise his describe how good he has become. Clearly, the more bullish system in OOPSY was significantly close to his final wOBA. Heck, OOPSY was far and away the most bullish here, as the next highest was just .431 from THE BAT!

Do the Depth Charts hate the Yankees?! Kidding, kidding, but second on the list was Giancarlo Stanton, and once again, he destroyed the projections by enjoying his best offensive season since all the way back in 2017. Of course, he was injured for a large chunk, so this came over just half a season’s worth of PAs. Would he have slowed down if he played a full year? Probably, but he was so far ahead of the projections, he would have needed to really stink up the joint to bring his full season wOBA down to make Depth Charts the winner here.

Despite posting the highest strikeout rate of his career, he managed the strong performance by posting his highest BABIP since 2014 and highest ISO since 2017. The BABIP clearly won’t be repeated, but all his Statcast metrics remind us that his power hasn’t gone anywhere. He’s a prime shallow league target as he’s much easier to replace than in deep leagues for when he inevitably hits the IL.

The addition of ZiPS far more bullish projection caused the gap between forecasts to narrow for Mike Trout, so he would have missed this list if I waited until March to publish the original article. It didn’t change the result though, as he fell short of every single projection system’s wOBA forecast. That was mainly because he suddenly became a strikeout machine, striking out at a career high 32%, which is pretty crazy for him and a significantly jump from 2024 and his career mark. His ISO also fell to its lowest season mark, even though his Statcast metrics were in line with his history. The underlying metrics suggest to me that he was pretty unlucky this year and it’s baffling he struck out so often given the SwStk% just barely into double digits. Health will remain a question mark and he stopped stealing bases, but he’s a strong rebound candidate next year and should be an ideal OBP format target.

Amazingly, OOPSY nailed Jo Adell’s wOBA in his breakout year. How’d it do that?! Adell hadn’t posted a wOBA higher than .303 during parts of any season, and yet the projection system forecasted quite the spike to .333. As you could guess, it was easily the highest projection among systems, with the next highest coming in at just .318. It all came down to his power spike, as his HR/FB rate jumped over 20%, fueling a career best .249 ISO. That was thanks to an increased HardHit% and a massive surge in Barrel% to an elite level. If we go back to his scouting grades, we find Game Power and Raw Power scores of 50/70 and 70/70. That means he always had immense power potential and this year, he finally delivered.

I don’t think this season was a fluke at all, and his xwOBA suggests he actually deserved even better. However, it doesn’t mean I’m going to comfortably expect another 37 home runs, as his poor plate discipline remains scary, while his weak defense means his playing time isn’t as secure as you want it to be.

Christopher Morel was a big bust this year. Though he partially rebounded off his poor 2024 wOBA, his performance was bad enough this year that cost him a starting job. He ended up recording just half a season’s worth of PAs as a result. None of the projection systems saw this coming, even though he was coming off just a .280 wOBA in 2024. While his BABIP fully rebounded, his strikeout rate skyrocketed and his ISO only marginally bounced back. That’s surprising given fantastic Statcast metrics. Since he’s weak defensively, it’s hard to imagine him opening the season with a full-time job again, but I’d expect a rebound in whatever playing time he does earn.

In a list of big names, it was a surprise to find Brendan Rodgers’ name here. After projection updates, the two systems ended up quite close to each other in wOBA forecasts. Once again, injury cut his season short, limiting him to just 128 PAs. During his time not on the IL, he was awful, striking out like never before and posting a career worst ISO. I don’t have much hope for him now that he no longer calls Coors Field home, as he posted a career .358 mark there, versus just a .274 mark on the road.

This was a much weirder list than the Bullish group. First, the names here were far less fantasy relevant, and second, one of them never even made it to the Majors, while another barely played. For those that actually did earn some PAs, OOPSY won three of the four battles, with the fourth ending in a tie.

Hyeseong Kim was a fantasy relevant signing out of the KBO for the Dodgers, but he recorded just 170 PAs with the team as mostly a reserve. The two systems ended up projecting identical wOBA marks, which is shocking considering this was a foreign player with no MLB or even minor league experience. Kim ended up just barely outperforming his projected wOBA, which is surprising given his skyhigh strikeout rate. He had typically posted low-to-mid teen strikeout rates in KBO, but that spiked to 30.6% in the Majors. He offset the strikeouts by posting a ridiculous .396 BABIP, but his significantly lower xwOBA suggests it was all a fluke. He’ll continue to be an interesting fantasy name as he managed to steal 13 bases over his limited time.

OOPSY projected the 40-year-old Justin Turner to post the lowest wOBA of his career at .302, and sure enough, he posted the lowest wOBA of his career, but at just .268. It came in just 191 PAs, but it was driven by a crash in BABIP to his lowest career mark and a disappearance of his power, as his ISO fell to a career low. I think it’s safe to say that his player career might be over, but perhaps he’ll get a job on the Great Food Truck Race.

Deyvison De Los Santos hit 40 homers with a .392 wOBA in the minors in 2024, but never earned a promotion to the Majors this year for a sub-.500 team. That’s because his offense collapsed, as he posted just a .308 wOBA this season, partly driven by just a .119 ISO. I am almost wondering if his stats are wrong and this is a different player! It’s hard to believe that he increased his HardHit% and maxEV compared to 2024, and yet his power disappeared. I don’t know what happened here, but he’s clearly off the radar until he reproves he could hit at Triple-A.

Well, of course, Jose Iglesias wasn’t going to BABIP .382 again or post a .362 wOBA like in 2024. Interestingly, all projection systems forecasted a wOBA below his career average. He actually ended up posting the lowest wOBA of his career thanks to the BABIP pendulum swinging to the complete opposite side, while his ISO fell to a career low. This is just what happens sometimes to contact-oriented hitters with limited power who rely so heavily on BABIP.

Tirso Ornelas spent nearly all season at Triple-A-, save for 16 PAs with the Padres. He hit pretty well at Triple-A with strong plate discipline and a touch of power, but he’s not exactly someone that should be on fantasy owners’ radars.

Steamer was by far the most bullish on Brooks Lee, projecting a .312 wOBA, while none of the other systems were over .296. That inflated the Depth Charts wOBA forecast, pushing it well above OOPSY. Amazingly, OOPSY perfectly nailed this one, making for two exact matches between the two lists. Lee continued to hate the free pass, posting a lowly 5.9% walk rate, and was killed again by a poor .258 BABIP. His power also has underwhelmed, though an increased HadHit% and maxEV were positive signs for the future. With little speed, his fantasy prospects are nowhere near as good as his former top prospect status would suggest.