2024 Draft Recap: Tout Wars (15-Team OBP Auction)

This is my fourth year in the 15-team mixed league auction, with batting average replaced by on-base percentage (OBP). No one tracks these things closely (except for Josiah Tindor), but I’ll be the first to admit I’ve fared quite poorly in this league. If my memory serves me correctly, I finished 14th, 8th, and 15th. That’s… pretty bad! Embarrassing, even. I expected to perform badly in my first year — I have never quite gotten the grasp of 15-team leagues, with 12 teams being the sweet spot for me, and I had never played in an OBP league before. In 2022, with a year under my belt, it went better but it still wasn’t great.

Last year, though, was an unmitigated disaster. It was time to face the facts: I simply hadn’t devoted enough time and attention to fantasy baseball. My daughter was born during the 2020 season, so before the 2021 season she was still small and decidedly less of a rascal, which allowed me to prepare as I normally would. But as she has gotten older I have found myself with less and less free time. I thought I could simply ride the momentum of my existing knowledge of the player pool. To some extent, it worked; the 2022 season wasn’t so bad, although it was my first losing (overall negative ROI) year since 2011. That should’ve been enough of a red flag. 2023 was somehow worse and, frankly, downright humiliating.

I told myself, not again. No matter how little free time I had this offseason — and, lo and behold, I remained extremely strapped for time — I would put forth a concerted effort. So, here I am, after a couple of years of cruising along and sucking horribly, sincerely trying again. I evaluated nearly every (relevant) player on every 40-man roster, evaluated playing time situations, dissected bullpens. It’s the most prepared I’ve felt in years. If I get smoked, I get smoked. At least I can now blame myself for bad evaluation and execution rather than lack of trying.

Let’s get one thing straight: Tout Wars is about winning, or at least performing well, but it’s also about having fun. And while the draft stressed me out — I must have sighed deeply hundreds of times in a span of four-and-a-half hours — I had fun.

Here’s my final roster:

I hadn’t intended to spend 45% of my budget on not just five players but five outfielders. That’s just how it played out. It might’ve been worse, had I been wiser to come over the top on an extremely affordable $37 Corbin Carroll.

What I did intend to do was more-or-less punt OBP. In National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) leagues with overall prizes (where all the individual leagues are pitted against each other with an “overall” side pot), batting average has proven to be least correlated with success, at least among the five hitting categories in standard rotisserie (roto) leagues. OBP is not batting average, obviously, but I expect that it behaves similarly.

This might sound crazy, then, but during the draft, I actually hid the OBP column of my workbook. I left AVG visible, and generally I still had a passing knowledge of everyone’s projected OBPs even with the column hidden. But, out of sight, out of mind: simply not seeing the exact OBP numbers helped me not dwell on them. It’s entirely possible I botched my draft completely by doing this. But considering this is what I did the previous three years, all of which were wildly unsuccessful, I figured a change was in order.

I’ll review nearly every player (let’s face it: it will probably be everyone) and discuss the dynamics of their respective positions.

Catcher: I’m a big fan of Logan O’Hoppe ($13). As the C11 from March 1 through 12, I expect he has one of the better chances, both via talent and playing time, to turn a profit at his ADP: he has some of the best power at the position and won’t be a drain on AVG/OBP. Meanwhile, I’m bearish on catchers drafted before him (not just at their ADPs but generally), such as J.T. Realmuto and Salvador Perez.

A weird thing happened, though, in that everyone around O’Hoppe in terms of expected contributions and talent went for roughly the same salary after him chronologically. (Writing it out, it’s not that weird, but it felt weird in the moment given how draft room dynamics tend to play out.) Cal Raleigh, Willson Contreras, Sean Murphy, and Francisco Alvarez all went for $13 to $15 as well, and Yainer Diaz went for only $10. (Perez went for $7, but I was not targeting him.) I am content with O’Hoppe — outside of Diaz, I might be happiest with O’Hoppe at these salaries — but in the moment it made me question if I pressed with O’Hoppe before letting the position flesh itself out more.

I paid $5 for Shea Langeliers, which I was and still am not totally pleased about. I like Langeliers — despite Tyler Soderstrom in the picture, I think Langeliers has playing time upside and talent to grow into — but I liked him for, like $1, not $5. I would have preferred Henry Davis ($8), but he is not immediately catcher-eligible (if I’m not mistaken), and everyone else was in on an Alejandro Kirk ($8) bounce-back, too. A cheaper (and possibly equally viable) alternative would have been Jake Rogers ($1), on whom I am bullish as a second catcher in the twilight of drafts.

First base: I think if there’s any position at which I allocated my resources and attention poorly, it’s at corner infield. I knew from the start I would probably not nab an elite option, and of the second-tier first basemen that followed I was wary of a great many of them. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Spencer Steer, Spencer Torkelson, Yandy Díaz, Alec Bohm — I basically wanted to steer clear of nearly the entire middle class of first basemen, and several of the later options, too.

It left me with little to pick from, and thus I allocated $10 to the position (and, initially, $5 to my CI slot). It left me with one option that stood above the rest: Rhys Hoskins ($9), whom I drafted successfully. I admit there are red flags — namely, that he missed the entire 2023 season. That’s not nothing. But he also saw a change to his profile in 2022, where he hit fewer fly balls and thus hit for less power. It was effectively a net-zero change in overall value, but he may be closer to a 25-homer guy than the 30-homer guy he once was, especially at age 31.

There was one hitter who piqued my interest this offseason: Ryan Mountcastle, who put together his best exit velocities with his worst launch angles. I thought he might be a good breakout candidate in the off-chance that his bad LAs were the product of random variance (or bad swing decisions that he could improve) and if he held his EV gains. During the draft, I really only lost focus during two player auctions during the draft, so of course one of them was Mountcastle. He went for $4, and as I sat there paralyzed (and tired and hungry, having raced to the hotel and not eaten lunch), I kicked myself. The other was Ty France ($3), also on my list of targets. He went to Driveline this offseason, which at this point is a cliché. But allegedly he recouped 3 to 4 mph of bat speed by cleaning up his swing mechanics. The payoff could be huge.

With the position nearly completely cleaned out and devoid of upside, I pivoted to Mountcastle’s teammate and namesake, Ryan O’Hearn ($1, 1B/OF). Acquired from the Royals, the perpetually injured O’Hearn played as much as he had in any other year previously while putting together pretty impressive peripherals. His performance didn’t quite speak to them, but I’m optimistic that, if the gains were real, appropriately sized outcomes will follow.

Having $5 for my last player (rather than $1 or $2, as planned) can be attributed directly to drafting O’Hearn in lieu of Mountcastle or France. So, again: if anything went wrong in terms of planning and in-draft stamina, it happened here.

Second base: I don’t totally understand why Tommy Edman’s ($4, 2B/OF) draft stock is so low this year, so either I’m a genius or an idiot. He is a priority target for me this spring for his well-rounded contributions.

I will mention Luis Rengifo here, since he qualifies as a thousand positions. He was my primary target for second base, but because I kind of botched my corner infield situation, he is actually my starting third baseman.

Shortstop: I knew that because shortstops this year are weighted heavily toward stolen bases, I probably wouldn’t end up with a top-shelf option. I carved out a few targets in roughly the same tier: Jeremy Peña ($4), Carlos Correa ($7), Luis Rengifo, and Zach Neto. I think Peña’s draft stock reflects drafters’ inability to divorce their analysis of him from last year’s sunken wRC+. Take the over firmly and pair it with healthily double-digit home runs and stolen bases, and I’ll have myself a good time, I hope.

I nabbed Neto ($3) for my MI spot. Apparently it is easy to forget his recently high draft stock or to overlook his 30-homer power in the minors. I wouldn’t call his upside “tremendous,” but it is certainly palpable, and he has the requisite tools to succeed.

Third base: Rengifo ($4, 2B/SS/3B/OF) is one of my favorite draft targets this offseason, but it requires some wishcasting. Rather than re-writing something I already wrote for my bold predictions (which I haven’t published yet, so I’ll copy-and-paste here):

I am speculating heavily on the Angels’ focus on the run game this spring. New Angels’ manager Ron Washington vocally committed his team to aggressive baserunning in 2024. Whereas often this kind of talk ends up being nonsense, simply a PR spin, it’s clear Washington meant what he said: the Angels rank 2nd in total stolen base attempts and 3rd on a per-PA basis as of March 19.

No Angel is better-position to take advantage of this philosophy than Rengifo as the team’s likely leadoff hitter and speediest runner.

For being sort of a non-prospect prospect, he has solid power for what could be characterized as a slappy, contact-forward approach. He also ran like gangbusters in minors before kind of just not doing that anymore! And I don’t know why. But, again, if Washington’s intentions play out during the season the way they did this March, Rengifo ought to be the biggest beneficiary. His single-digit stolen base projection could legitimately triple or quadruple.

I have a hard time being imaginative, and I often lean more pessimistic than optimistic. With Rengifo I’m allowing myself to get carried away. Within reason, I should note: at $4, there will inevitably be much more-expensive busts than Rengifo might become.

Outfield: Julio Rodríguez ($43) and Anthony Santander ($9) sort of speak for themselves. I think I got a pretty good deal on Adolis García ($22). As for sub-elite options, I knew I wanted to target Luis Robert Jr. ($28), although I do have questions about how sustainable his approach is long-term. Nevertheless I’m pleased with his salary; I think he and a couple of the others in this second tier were underpriced (or, alternatively, some of the top tier were overpriced; it cuts both ways).

When I spoke of fun earlier, I referred to this moment. I sat across from Justin Mason, renowned Cedric Mullins lover, and we got into a bidding war. I had Mullins on my shortlist of targets — he, for me, is the last bastion of reliable five-tool options — but I had him pegged for, like, $10, which affords me a couple of dollars of overage. Sitting across from Justin, though, we had ourselves some showmanship: when Justin bid Mullins past my mental ceiling of $12, I pushed it to $14 just to put the pressure on Justin. He came over the top to $15, and suddenly it was on me. I easily could’ve backed down — there really was no reason to keep going, other than a false sense of pride and true spirit of fun — but I wanted to see if I could put the screws to Justin one last time. I pushed it to $16, and he backed down. I got Mullins, but at a cost.

In addition to Edman, Rengifo, and O’Hearn being OF-eligible, I also drafted Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($6) to my utility spot and Nelson Velázquez and Adam Duvall in the reserve rounds. I correctly anticipated Gurriel’s power to resurface last year, and it did so without compromising his continued plate discipline gains. Meanwhile, Velázquez presents himself as an affordable Christopher Morel type, while Duvall could rank among the league leaders in home runs once again.

Starting pitchers: I knew, at his snake draft ADP, I would want Cole Ragans ($21) almost no matter what. From where I’m sitting few if any pitchers in the American League project better than him — maybe Corbin Burnes ($28). There were plenty of hype picks among starters (Grayson Rodriguez went for $22, Tarik Skubal for $26), so I am genuinely stoked about Ragans’ salary.

I wanted to pair his perceived volatility with some stability. Ideally, it would’ve been Zack Wheeler ($27), but I hamstrung myself slightly in my budgeting. I ultimately settled on Max Fried ($23), but considering I finished the draft with $3 or $4 more than I anticipated, I possibly could have secured Wheeler for a couple extra bucks.

I drafted Trevor Rogers ($4) as my third starter. I thought if I nominated him early enough I’d get crickets on such a lower-end option. I started the bidding at $2 but, unfortunately, was bid up by Brent Hershey of BaseballHQ. I begrudgingly pushed the bidding to $4, and while I think Rogers could be worth that much, it’s possible I let my stubbornness get the best of me.

Shota Imanaga ($8) is theoretically an “unknown quantity,” but compared to other Japanese pitchers who have come stateside the last decade, Imanaga is among the better ones — significantly better than, say, Yusei Kikuchi ($5). Obviously we won’t know how this plays out until September, but I hoped Yoshinobu Yamamoto would overshadow Imanaga comparatively and create a buying opportunity. I think $8 is just right.

I spent about $4 more than I expected on Cristopher Sánchez ($7). But I had to out-bid Jeff Zimmerman to get him, and Jeff has Sánchez on literally all his other teams (he told me so). Considering Jeff’s fantasy baseball acumen, I feel good about targeting and acquiring Sánchez. What I don’t love is Sánchez being up a couple of ticks in spring. While normally this would be exciting, I fear that additional velocity might mess with Sánchez’s unique, unorthodox pitch shapes that have made him successful. To compromise the absurd steepness of his pitches, to give pitchers a better chance to elevate against him, I think it could set him back. It’s something to monitor, certainly.

With my last $5 in the draft, I pivoted to make sure I used the hammer on a high-quality arm who would begin the season on the injured list (IL) but not be sidelined too, too long. Max Scherzer fit that description best, although I don’t love that it came down to it. In the reserves, I supplemented with Chase Silseth, who could be the Angels’ best starter; Tyler Wells, who, health permitting, could fortify my ratios; Patrick Sandoval, from whom I expect a bounce-back; and Nick Martinez, another bold prediction guy of mine who I think will supply high-quality innings for however long he sticks in Cincinnati’s rotation (all year, I hope!).

Relief pitchers: When it came to closers I wanted to evaluate them absent ADP. Outside of the obvious elite options (Edwin Diaz, Josh Hader, Devin Williams, and Jhoan Duran) I really had no sense of who was being drafted when among relief pitchers. Using an unrefined approach I graded each pitcher on skills and job security (the latter of which included health; bad health equated to low security, as shorthand) and developed a shortlist of options I loved, all of whom resided in the middle tiers: Paul Sewald ($13), Evan Phillips, Ryan Helsley, Clay Holmes, Kenley Jansen ($8), and Jose Alvarado ($8).

Closers plateaued more dramatically than catchers did; eight arms, as high as Raisel Iglesias down to Holmes, went for either $13 or $14. Another two (Camilo Doval and Phillips) went for $15. Phillips was one of my top two options, and I carved out my budget with him specifically in mind. That my $14 bid couldn’t seal the deal wrecked me. Given closer salaries up to that point, even Phillips felt like an overpay, knowing there were quality options to follow. Ultimately in his absence I secured Helsley ($11), who I viewed as highly skilled but comes with mild health concerns carrying forward from last year.

My other target, I secured as planned. Holmes ($13) job security is not perfect; he leads a potent bullpen, but it’s full of fragile arms, arms that won’t be healthy long enough to challenge him. But I’m not sure they’d put up much of a challenge anyway: Holmes’ skills, between his ground balls (thanks to his bowling-ball sinker) and whiffs (thanks to his lethal slider/sweeper combo), makes him, in my eyes, a legit relief ace, one who will ascend the ranks next year.

I rounded out my active pitching staff with Robert Stephenson ($1), who, at a buck, could wind up being one of my best picks. Carlos Estévez is what some might call “not good.” Meanwhile, Stephenson put together some of the most absurd peripherals I’ve ever seen from a relief pitcher, small samples be damned. The Angels could ruin Stephenson somehow — they’ve ruined pitchers before, so I wouldn’t put it past them — or perhaps Estévez will be juuuuuust viable enough for old-school Washington to keep sending him out in the ninth. Even if Stephenson only locks down saves on Estévez’s rest days, his K’s and ratios should be net-positive in a league as deep as ours.

You know you’ve goofed it if your team isn’t best according to your own projections. I don’t have everyone else’s teams in my workbook, but I have my starters projected for 326 home runs, 159 stolen bases (projecting only 6 SB for Rengifo), a [redacted] OBP, a 3.23 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and 11 OF-eligible players. Granted, my active nine pitchers account for only half my total projected innings; if you assume I can extract a league-average ERA from the remaining innings, my team ERA would be closer to 3.70, probably.

So, that’s it. That’s my draft. I’m happy with it. It’s not my best work, but I feel so much better about this draft than I did the previous two drafts, where I know I botched it before the season had started. I navigated a sharp room confidently and (most importantly) with necessary flexibility. We’ll see how it turns out. I suppose anything better than 8th would be an improvement… sadly, it’s a low bar to clear.