2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer wOBA Forecasts, Sleepers Part 2, A Review

Yesterday, I reviewed a group of players THE BAT X forecasted for a significantly higher wOBA than Steamer did that I labeled as “sleepers” given their pre-season ADP. Today, let’s flip over to Steamer’s sleepers.

This was a far more interesting group than THE BAT X’s sleepers, but the higher interest level failed to result in much success for Steamer! This time, THE BAT X was closer on five of six players. What I didn’t realize initially is that even these Steamer sleepers weren’t projected for very good offense, despite forecasts much higher than THE BAT X. The highest wOBA projection in the group was only .315, which ended up just below the league average of .318. So perhaps calling this group sleepers was wrong, as even if many of them hit the more optimistic Steamer projection, it still wouldn’t have necessarily led to regular playing time.

David Fletcher was a surprise atop the Steamer bullish list, and the gap between his Steamer and THE BAT X projection was far larger than everyone else. Weird for a guy with his skill set as you’d think the projections would be fairly aligned. Fletcher ended up posting a wOBA in between the two forecasts, but closer to the more pessimistic THE BAT X. Of course, it came in just 97 PAs, as he spent a significant chunk of the season at Triple-A. Given his complete lack of power and typically low walk rate, he needs a big BABIP to accrue any offensive value, so it’s unlikely he’ll find himself with a regular job again.

Jacob Stallings posted the lowest BABIP of his short career at just .249, while his ISO remained stuck below .100. The second highest strikeout rate of his career didn’t help either, so it’s no surprise that his .256 wOBA was the worst of his career. It was a year of worsts for Stallings and at age 34 next year, you wonder if he’ll have a job.

Finally, someone truly interesting to discuss in Oscar Colás! It may have been surprising to see THE BAT X so bearish here, but shockingly, the system ended up not being bearish enough! Colás’ walk rate was microscopic, he struck out frequently thanks to a high SwStk%, his BABIP was below league average despite a ground ball tendency, and perhaps most importantly, his power was a massive disappointment.

Despite owning 60/60 Raw Power grades, he posted just an 8.9% HR/FB rate and .098 ISO. Those rates are incredibly low, especially considering he posted an elite 114.2 MPH maxEV, though I’d guess his top EV batted balls came on the ground. His 7.3% Barrel% isn’t good, but it’s not terrible, and surely suggests a HR/FB rate at least in the low double digits, around league average. The low FB% is a concern, though, for his power potential, and given that he’s not fast, there’s no reason he should be hitting grounders at the rate he did. Since he was terrible defensively in both center field and right field, I wonder how much patience the White Sox are going to exercise with him.

Welp, getting released by the Nationals after recording just 152 PAs was not what Corey Dickerson and Steamer was hoping for this year, as Dickerson had posted the lowest wOBA of his career. It was mostly due to a power outage, as his HR/FB rate fell to just 4.9% and ISO to .104, both career worsts. Since he’s been pretty weak defensively for years now, his offense just went M.I.A., and he’s already 34, it’s possible his career has ended.

Miguel Cabrera is the only name that Steamer was closer on, as THE BAT X was projecting a sad .270 wOBA for the future hall of famer. Though his power first plummeted all the way back in 2017, it’s completely gone now as he has failed to reach a .100 ISO in the last two years, as his HR/FB rate has been stuck in the mid-single digits. If he has indeed played the final game of his career, he’ll finish with the 237th highest wOBA in baseball history, and 41st highest since 1990.

Kyle Stowers was a legit sleeper as one of the Orioles’ better prospects and figured to open the season on the strong side of a platoon at DH. Instead, he never actually got much of an opportunity, recording just 33 PAs in the Majors this year. He spent much more time in the minors, accumulating 283 PAs at Triple-A instead. In the minors, he showed excellent power and patience, with a 14.1% walk rate. If he does find himself back as a favorite for strong side platoon at-bats, he looks like a nice sleeper in leagues that use OBP instead of batting average.