2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer wOBA Forecasts, Sleepers Part 1, A Review

Last week, I reviewed the wOBA forecast comparisons between THE BAT X and Steamer as part of the 2023 Projection Showdown. Let’s now stick with wOBA projections, but turn to the sleepers. For this showdown, I performed the same comparison as in the previous wOBA articles, but filtered only for hitters with an ADP of 300+, were signed with a team, and forecasted for at least 300 PAs. Let’s review the hitters who qualified as a sleeper that THE BAT X loved.

So, admittedly, these names weren’t very exciting. No young part-timers who could thrive in a full-time role, making for an excellent speculation in deeper leagues. That said, despite these being THE BAT X favorites, Steamer actually proved closer on three of the five names here.

In his first year with the Brewers, Brian Anderson, I would have expected a nice home park factor related boost. Unfortunately, he was hurt once again, only playing about a half a season, and disappointed offensively. It’s now the second straight season he finished with a wOBA below .300. Though his walk rate jumped to double digits for just the first time since his small sample 2017 debut, his strikeout rate also surged to a career worst. That was the primary driver of the disappointing performance. However, while his ISO did rebound marginally off his last two seasons, he continues to fall well short of his peaks in 2019 and 2020, when his ISO jumped above .200. It’s odd, as his maxEV remains healthy above 110 MPH, while his Barrel% actually notched a career high, pushing into double digits for the first time. He was released by the Brewers earlier in the month, so it’s anyone’s guess if he’ll ever find himself a regular again, let alone latch on with a new team.

Joey Votto entered the season coming off shoulder surgery, which always adds to projection risk, especially when the hitter in question is 39 years old. Injury limited him again this year, as he wound up with just 242 PAs, but did finish always smack in the middle of the two wOBA forecasts, slightly closer to THE BAT X’s more optimistic mark. While his power rebounded off a down 2022, his BABIP plummeted to a career worst .212. For a guy who sports a career 25% LD%, it was shocking to see him post just an 11% LD% this year. Combined with the fly ball tendency, balls in play were just not falling for hits at his usual pace. The rising strikeout rate and SwStk% suggests age is clearly taking a toll here.

Avisaíl García was limited to just 118 PAs, so this was clearly a lost season. Over the small sample, his strikeout rate spiked above 30% for the first time, while his BABIP fell to a career low .258. Combine that with a typically low walk rate and you end up with a hitter who was rarely on base. Funny, his .241 wOBA matched his .241 OBP. He always owned a risky skill set as a swing-at-everything kinda player, so I would bet against him earning a regular role and being a fantasy contributor again.

Man, this list really doomed hitters to the IL for extended periods of time! Mike Zunino was yet another who missed a significant chunk to injury, finishing with just 140 PAs. When he did get to the plate, he struck out an absurd amount of the time at a shocking 43.6% clip. His power has disappeared too, so if he’s not even hitting for power while striking out this much, then he’s not contributing any value offensively whatsoever. His time as a Major League may be over.

Surprise, surprise, in keeping with the theme of this list, Andrew McCutchen missed time to injury too, but at least came close to 500 PAs. He was the only one on the list to exceed THE BAT X’s more optimistic projection. He posted the second highest walk rate of his career, along with his highest BABIP since back in 2015. Both of those factors helped offset his lowest ISO since, well, ever! That’s because his Barrel% tied for his lowest career mark at just 6.8%, even though he still managed a healthy 109.8 MPH maxEV. As long as he remains patient at the plate, resulting in an above average OBP, he could add positive offensive value, at least to real baseball teams.