2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer wOBA Forecasts, Part 2, A Review

Yesterday, I reviewed the results of the wOBA forecast showdown, filled with the hitters that THE BAT X was most bullish on compared to Steamer. Today, we’ll flip over to Steamer’s wOBA favorites.

Woah, is this the first overall “win” for Steamer?! Finally, the system proves closer on four of six favorites, as THE BAT X was simply too pessimistic on these hitters. Let’s dive in.

Jose Siri owns an intriguing combination of power and speed, but strikeouts and a lack of walks have been a major issue. This year, it didn’t matter so much, as his power took off. His HR/FB rate ranked sixth out of 245 hitters with at least 350 PAs, while his ISO ranked 13th. He never showed this kind of power in the minors, but with a strong 113.7 maxEV and 12.7% Barrel%, the power looks legit. Amazingly, he even outperformed his wOBA projections despite a lowly .269 BABIP and both strikeout and walk rates that moved in the wrong direction compared to 2022. Luckily, his strong defense will allow him to continue getting opportunities.

THE BAT X projected Tony Kemp to post the lowest wOBA of his career over a reasonable sample size, and he obliged! Despite a career best strikeout rate, the first time it slid into single digits, a career low .221 BABIP, along with another sub-.100 ISO, torpedoed his offense.

Sometimes, breakouts come out of nowhere. There were no signs that J.P. Crawford’s power was going to pop, as he has consistently posted extremely low Barrel% marks and mid-single digit HR/FB rates, with ISO marks around .100. But this year, his HR/FB rate jumped into double digits for the first time, as his Barrel% more than doubled from 2022. Of course, his 4.8% Barrel% is still tiny, so the power gain wasn’t enough to pull him out of the bottom tier. Since he doesn’t steal bases, he needed this extra power to deliver any sort of value in shallower leagues. Since he’s always had pretty good plate patience, he gains value in OBP leagues, and was actually a nice find in those formats this year given his .380 OBP. Still, I have no interest in paying the market rate for him next year as I don’t believe in his power gains and there’s not much else to fall back on.

Nolan Arenado was the second name that THE BAT X proved closer on, as it just did not believe in his offensive rebound in 2022, choosing instead to call for major regression to even below his first season in 2021, which itself was relatively weak. Sure enough, THE BAT X almost nailed the regression, as his strikeout rate jumped to its highest since 2018, walk rate hit its lowest since 2015, and ISO fell back below .200. Part of the issue, particularly on the power side, is that his FB% declined to its lowest since 2018. That resulted in fewer home runs, which ultimately reduced his wOBA, most likely at least.

After a slow start that saw Triston Casas post a meager .265 wOBA over the first month of the season and a mediocre .332 in May, he became an offensive monster, posting a .369 mark in June, and then a hefty .432 mark during the second half. He’s a good reminder not to overreact to small sample sizes over the first couple of weeks of the season. Sometimes those slow starts are a precursor to a disappointing season, but sometimes they aren’t. It’s hard to differentiate which slow start ends up in which groups, so it’s best to just trust in the projections. But Casas handily exceeded the forecasts, as he posted a better than expected .226 ISO, driven by a strong 113.2 maxEV and 13.1% Barrel%, and a fantastic 13.9% walk rate. His batted ball distribution was interesting as he managed a .317 BABIP, despite a fly ball profile, but he also posted a better than average IFFB%, so that somewhat offset the high FB%. His xWOBA was actually slightly higher at .371, so there wasn’t any luck driving these results. That said, as a strong side platoon hitter without any speed or much batting average contribution, he’s really not a great fantasy asset right now. However, his value surges in OBP leagues, so keep that in mind.

Adam Frazier’s wOBA plummeted in 2022 to a career low .274, as his ISO collapsed, and BABIP remained low. THE BAT X wasn’t projecting much of a rebound for the 31-year-old, while Steamer figured he’d mostly bounce back to his previous levels of performance. Steamer ended up much closer here, as Frazier’s power more than rebounded, as his ISO hit the second highest of his career, offsetting his second worst BABIP and increased strikeout rate. Really, this offensive rebound was driven entirely by the .155 ISO, which more than doubled his 2022 mark. While his maxEV increased marginally from 2022, it’s still below average and his 3.1% Barrel% (again, double from 2022), is still extremely weak. So I feel more like this is more about randomness in his results than recapturing lost power.