2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Stolen Base Forecasts, Part 1, A Review

Let’s continue reviewing the results of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X projections against Steamer forecasts. Today we move on to stolen bases. The various rule changes implemented for this season helped increase leaguewide stolen bases by a whopping 41%. So, whichever system was more bullish on any particular player’s stolen bases is far more likely to have been proven closer as a result. Let’s see if that’s the case here. We start with THE BAT X’s stolen base favorites. Did their projections for these players prove closer in a clean sweep and will Steamer show the same results tomorrow? Let’s find out!

Sure enough, THE BAT X proved closer in four of five forecasts. On the whole, these players ripped through the forecasts too. Four of the five exceeded THE BAT X’s more bullish projection, while the group as a whole swiped 14.5 more bases over 650 PA than THE BAT X expected.

Aside from Albies missing the low end of the projection here, Shohei Ohtani ended up closest to either of the projections, marginally exceeding THE BAT X’s bullish forecast. Much of that was due to his .412 OBP, easily a new career high, driven by a career best 15.2% walk rate and a .342 BABIP. At some point, he might slow down his running game, though I thought that might be the case last year when he finished with just 11 steals. I’m still awaiting an explanation on how someone could be so talented at baseball. Though I figure we’re all still waiting on that same explanation on Babe Ruth!

Jazz Chisholm Jr. wasn’t a huge basestealer in the minors, but he has upped his pace in the Majors, and just went 22 for 25 on the bases this year, for a nice 88% success rate. What’s interesting is he actually missed his OBP projections across the board, thanks to a career worst strikeout rate, and yet he still managed to outperform his stolen base expectations. I’m still not enamored by this skill set, but man are those power and speed contributions enticing. I just worry that with such poor plate discipline, he could pull a Javier Báez at any time if it doesn’t improve.

Coming off his lowest stolen base total in a full season in 2022, one wondered how much, if any, he would rebound at the ripe age of 30. Incredibly, he ended up beating his high end steals projection, despite posting the worst OBP of his career, by a meaningful margin. Part of how he did it is by succeeding on every single stolen base attempt. That’s right, he swiped 30 bases this season without getting caught! He’s never done that in a full season before, and it’s doubtful he’ll pull it off again.

Ozzie Albies was the only name on this list that missed both stolen base forecasts. It certainly wasn’t because of any trouble getting on base, as his OBP exceeded every preseason projection and he posted his highest mark since 2019. He even only got caught once in 14 attempts, so it’s not like his attempts were high, but he was constantly unsuccessful. Normally, I would simply guess that it was a symptom of being on the historically good Braves offense, BUT…Ronald Acuña Jr. was in this same lineup, typically hitting right ahead of Albies, and yet stole 73 bases in 87 attempts! Albies did miss time with a hamstring injury, but that was in August and would have only potentially affected his willingness to steal in September, a month in which he did attempt three steals. So for whatever reason, he just decided not to run as often this year.

Andrés Giménez was the list’s biggest surprise, exceeding THE BAT X’s optimistic projection by 10 steals. Of course, he also stole bases at a pace opposite his OBP trend, as that mark tumbled this year, thanks to a collapse in his BABIP. So he simply ran far more often as a percentage of opportunities, which is what we saw with many hitters after the rule changes.