2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Stolen Base Forecasts, Part 1

Let’s continue the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X against Steamer in the various fantasy categories. Today, I’ll shift over to stolen bases, and identify and discuss the hitters that THE BAT X is more bullish on than Steamer. Like I did for home runs, I converted the projected stolen base total into a ratio first and then calculated the season pace. For steals, I used plate appearances as the denominator, instead of at-bats, and then 650 PAs for the season pace. Let’s find out who THE BAT X likes to steal more bases than Steamer.

I love seeing Shohei Ohtani atop this THE BAT X bullish list. Personally, I dislike betting on power hitters to continue stealing bases, as typically power hitters are your best hitters, and it usually isn’t worth the risk for your best hitters to be attempting 20+ steals a year. Ohtani swiped 26 bags in 2021, but declined to just 11 last year. THE BAT X is forecasting a big rebound, as the only system forecasting more than 20. Some of the bullishness stems from a higher projected OBP, highest among systems, versus Steamer which is lowest. It all comes down to THE BAT X’s BABIP projection, which is significantly above everyone else’s, but right in line with his career mark. I lean toward the rest of the systems, staying in the mid-teens with my steals expectation for Ohtani. Anything above that is just a bonus.

Injury limited Jazz Chisholm Jr. to just a bit over a third of a season. But his stolen base game was strong again, putting him on a full season pace of well over 20. Despite near identical projection OBP marks, THE BAT X is most bullish on Chisholm’s steals. It’s not obvious why. His minor league track record is far less impressive when it comes to steals, so hard to believe he’ll flirt with the 30 steal plateau in the Majors, when he never came close to that pace in the minors, even with some much better OBP marks.

Crazy to see that a 25.4 steals projection over 650 PAs represents a bullish forecast for Trea Turner. His steals total has dropped every single year, even though he continues to succeed at a strong rate. The OBP projections for the two systems are close enough to not consider it a factor in this SB projection discrepancy. Seeing just 23 steals from Steamer, the fewest of any projection systems, in the highest forecasted PAs of any system, is bizarre. Does Turner’s decline continue linearly, or will there be some sort of stabilization or rebound? The challenge is guessing whether his new team affects his willingness to run. I definitely lean closer to THE BAT X’s projection here.

Like Chisholm, Ozzie Albies was also limited to just over a third of a season due to injury. Despite stealing 20 bases in 2021, he swiped just three, for a single digit full season pace this year. He was also caught more often than he succeeded! Was this a one season blip or the end of double digit steals? He’s still just 26, so while speed is always waning, it shouldn’t decline that dramatically just yet. Given his history, his 20-steal 2021 looks more like the outlier, so once again, I think I’m going to lean to a season total closer to Steamer’s projection.

Andrés Giménez enjoyed a big breakout year, both in real baseball (.364 wOBA!) and fantasy (17 homers, 20 steals!). Surprisingly, THE BAT X is more bullish on his steals total, despite forecasting a meaningfully lower OBP than Steamer. In fact, THE BAT X’s OBP projection is easily the worst among all systems. Given his excellent career success rate, I’d favor THE BAT X’s projection here, as Steamer is seemingly on a lone island as the only system projecting fewer than 20 steals.