2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Runs Scored Forecasts, Part 1, A Review

Today, we move on to reviewing the runs scored forecasts as part of the 2023 projection showdown pitting THE BAT X against Steamer in various fantasy categories. Just like RBI, runs scored is heavily driven by lineup spot. While the extra plate appearances for hitters atop the lineup doesn’t matter for this analysis because we’re keeping a constant 650 PAs, the guys at the top of the lineup benefit from better hitters behind them to drive them in. So they are likely to score a higher percentage of the time when they are on base versus hitters in the bottom half of the lineup. So let’s keep that in mind when reviewing the actual runs scored here as a change in lineup spot may be the cause of exceeding or missing the projections. We start with THE BAT X’s runs scored favorites.

After a breakout 2021, Tyler O’Neill disappointed during an injury-riddled follow-up in 2022. THE BAT X was significantly more bullish on a rebound this season, and I’m guessing some of that optimism stems from his wOBA underperformance in 2022. Unfortunately, O’Neill disappointed yet again and missed chunks of time to injury. He ended up finishing with just a half season’s worth of plate appearances, and performed about the same as he did last year. That led to him missing everyone’s runs score projections by a meaningful margin. But given his consistently strong maxEV over 110 MPH and double digit Barrel%, it certainly seems like he deserves better than a low-to-mid teen HR/FB rate. However, it might be a struggle to earn back regular playing time.

After a poor 2022 season in part-time duty, Chris Taylor partially rebounded this year, but it didn’t result in more playing time. Still, he was actually a pretty decent contributor in NL-Only leagues, particularly those that use OBP instead of batting average. THE BAT X almost perfectly nailed the runs scored total, even though the majority of his PAs came batting sixth through eighth. That was primarily driven by a rebound in power, as his HR/FB rate surged back into the mid-teens, while his ISO bounced off a low.

Well duh, of course Shohei Ohtani blew out the projections. Actually, THE BAT X was pretty darn bullish here and Ohtani still beat it. That’s what happens when you post a .433 wOBA! Ya know, now I’m actually surprised he didn’t beat the projections by a greater margin. He got on base at a .412 clip, while he posted an absurd .350 ISO. It says a lot more about his team that he was only on a 111 runs scored pace given his offense. But that’s not surprising given how many injuries to their starting lineup they suffered.

J.T. Realmuto finished between the two systems, but a bit closer to THE BAT X. That’s pretty surprising given that he endured his weakest offensive season by wOBA since his first full year in 2015! His strikeout rate jumped to a career worst, his BABIP tied for its lowest since 2015, and his HR/FB rate hit its lowest since 2017. And yet, he still managed to finish right on target in runs scored. He did lose about 20 RBI from 2022 though. The vast majority of his PAs came from the fifth and sixth slot, so the bottom of the Phillies’ lineup must have knocked him in at a pretty good pace.

After an injury shortened 2022, Ozzie Albies enjoyed his best offensive season, as he set career bests in HR/FB rate and ISO. It’s likely that many of the Braves hitters exceeded expectations in both runs scored and RBI, but there wasn’t much disagreement between the two systems to get those names on these lists. What’s interesting here is that Albies’ run scored total was actually his lowest over a full season! So he performed pretty much as normal, but it’s clear the projections were cautious after a weak 2022.

As poor as Jake McCarthy was, he still managed to not be terrible in the runs scored department, actually slightly beating Steamer’s more pessimistic projection, but still finishing closer to its forecast. Most of the disappointment this year came from a total disappearance of his power, as his ISO slid to just .083, easily the lowest mark of his professional career, including the minors. His .305 BABIP was also down from his .349 mark in 2022, and the lowest mark of his pro career. So nothing went right for him offensively, which resulted in him losing his job. He is unlikely to enter 2024 as a regular, but I would still be interested if he does find himself with an everyday job given his stolen base prowess.