2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer RBI Forecasts, Part 1, A Review

Today, we transition our 2023 projection showdown review to runs batted in. This is a fun one to look at because lineup spot (and obviously the strength of the hitters ahead of the player in question) dramatically influences RBI projections. So I’m always curious how a system forecasts a player’s lineup spot and whether that forecasted spot changes as we head into opening day. A system can’t always assume a hitter will hit in the same spot as the previous year, so there has to be some sort of awareness of where the hitter is hitting during spring training and adjustments made if necessary. Sometimes we see a speedy guy with a mediocre OBP flip-flop between leading off and hitting ninth and where he ultimately ends up will influence all his counting stats. As a result, it is imperative that a computer projection system knows where a hitter is expected to hit in the lineup.

Today, we start with THE BAT X’s RBI favorites, or the hitters it projected for a significantly higher RBI total than Steamer. Don’t forget that we’re comparing the hitter’s 650 PA pace, both projected and actual, so they won’t match up with the exact preseason projections or actual totals. This is done to remove playing time forecasts as a factor.

Remember what I said about how important lineup position is to counting stats, and particularly RBI? Well, Kyle Schwarber is a perfect example. He actually just set a new career high in RBI with 104, the first time he exceeded 100, but spent the majority of his time hitting leadoff, cutting down on his opportunities. A guy with a .277 ISO and 47 home runs over 585 at-bats is most certainly going to knock in more runners than that had they been hitting cleanup instead. I was quite shocked THE BAT X was projecting such a high 650 PA RBI total, though to be fair, Schwarber figured to hit second with the arrival of Trea Turner. If he stayed there, he could have finished closer to THE BAT X’s optimistic projection. Still, this is nearly as good as you can get while hitting leadoff most of the time.

I was surprised that a low power guy like Luis Arraez made it onto this list and sided with Steamer given Arraez’s expected spot atop the order and the Marlins weak offense. The Marlins offense did stink, scoring the 26th most runs in baseball, but Arrez spent about 28% of his PAs batting third, which really boosted his RBI total. Oh, and he also hit for a career best .115 ISO and .362 BABIP and knocked 10 home runs, the first time he’s been in double digits. So he just handily outhit all his projections, which is usually going to lead to better than expected RBI totals. He’s clearly a lock to be awesome for batting average, but I don’t buy the power given the lowly maxEV and Barrel%, plus he doesn’t steal bases. Hence, he’ll probably never end up on my team, as I prefer the counting stats, given how bouncy batting average and OBP could be.

There aren’t enough words to describe Ronald Acuña Jr.’s season. It’s one of those that wasn’t just incredible for fantasy owners, but for the Braves as well. What’s crazy is that even despite enjoying a rebound in power and posting a career best wOBA, he still just barely beat his optimistic THE BAT X RBI projection. Don’t forget that he also posted the third most plate appearances in a season over the last five years, so all his counting stats benefited from coming to the plate so often. That’s thanks to the amazing Braves offense and the fact he rarely got a day off. I wouldn’t count on him recording that many PAs again, but that shouldn’t push him out of being the obvious top pick.

Mike Trout was one of just two hitters on this list that the more pessimistic Steamer RBI projection proved closer. Sadly, his season ended prematurely once again due to injury. This makes for the third straight season in which he missed a significant chunk of time to injury. Meanwhile, he badly missed his RBI projections, as both his ISO and wOBA fell to the worst marks of his career. In fact, this was the first time his wOBA slipped below .400…ever! That’s pretty incredible that he has posted a wOBA above .400 every year since his first full year in 2012. A rising strikeout rate is a concern, as it hit a career high, while his SwStk% has stuck in double digits after increasing there in 2021. With his walk rate also dropping into the low double digits, he’s no longer the OBP league monster he used to be either.

Mookie Betts squashed even the more optimistic THE BAT X forecast, even while batting leadoff the entire season. That was most likely thanks to his offense, as he posted the second highest ISO and wOBA of his career. He also posted the third highest batting average of his career, and more hits usually means more runs batted in. Because of his mid-teen strikeout rate and sky-high FB%, he actually only needed a mid-teen HR/FB rate to post a career high 39 home runs. Perhaps one of these years he pushes that HR/FB rate above 20% for the first time.

THE BAT X nearly nailed Masataka Yoshida’s RBI pace. He figured to hit leadoff, which is why I leaned toward Steamer’s more pessimistic projection here as proving more accurate. However, he actually never recorded a single plate appearance in the first slot in the lineup! Instead, he spent time batting second, third, fourth, and fifth the majority of the time, with the cleanup spot being his most frequent spot. Clearly, those lineup spots afforded him far more RBI opportunities than leadoff would have. It’s actually pretty amazing then that he still only managed a pace of 80.7 RBI given his time smack in the middle of the order. Part of the reason for that is he hit for less power than expected, posting just a .156 ISO, so he wasn’t as effective at knocking in runners than we thought he would be. As mentioned in previous showdowns where he appeared on the list, I expected better overall offense in 2024.