2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Home Run Forecasts, Part 2, A Review

Last week, I began reviewing my 2023 Projection Showdown series, which pitted THE BAT X against Steamer in various hitting categories. I started by reviewing home run forecasts that THE BAT X was most bullish on compared to Steamer. Let’s now review the hitters that Steamer was most bullish on compared to THE BAT X in home runs over a 600 at-bat constant projection.

I only listed six hitters on the Steamer favorite list, versus eight for THE BAT X, but at least we have a winner this time! Steamer was closer on four of the six forecasts here, while THE BAT X split the wins in part 1, with each system proving closing for four hitters.

Though it’s great for Steamer to have taken four of the six here, it’s not so great that the two hitters it was most bullish on, and the only two with double digit gaps in home run per 600 AB projections, finished closer to THE BAT X’s projection. The top name on Steamer’s list was Oscar Gonzalez, who ended up being the only hitter who failed to even reach a ten-homer pace, let alone the 20 everyone else did! Gonzalez opened the season as the Guardians’ starting right fielder, but it didn’t last long, and by the middle of May, he was back at Triple-A. After posting some hefty HR/FB rates in the minors in 2021, then a high teen mark in 2022, and then a 13.4% mark during his MLB debut last year, his power disappeared while with the Guardians this year. His HR/FB rate fell to just 5.3%, which pairs poorly with a sub-30% FB%. So he wasn’t hitting fly balls, and the few flies he did hit were not flying over the fence. With poor plate discipline and a low FB%, despite a high maxEV, it’s a weird profile that may not get another chance at full-time at-bats.

While THE BAT X proved slightly closer on Vinnie Pasquantino’s 600 AB home run pace, it’s not totally fair to declare a winner here. He only played in about half a season after his season was cut short by a shoulder injury that required surgery. However, when he was on the field, his HR/FB rate did not jump like I expected it to, and in fact slid slightly, as his maxEV declined just below 110 MPH, while his Barrel% was just mediocre. I still love the underlying skills here, but you never know how hitters return after shoulder surgery. He’ll be a risk, but will probably come cheap enough to take a flyer, especially in OBP leagues.

Finally, we move on to the string of hitters in which Steamer’s bullishness paid off. Spencer Steer enjoyed a very solid first full season, as his fly ball tendency helped boost his power output. His maxEV jumped above 110 MPH, but his 6.7% Barrel% was unimpressive and explains why he posted just a ho-hum 12% HR/FB rate. I would probably bet more on an increase in home runs, while his stolen base output declines moving forward. He’s probably a better bet in OBP leagues given his double digit walk rate.

Wow, was THE BAT X off on Corbin Carroll! In my initial writeup, I was hoping fantasy owners would overvalue his small sample 2022 debut and weak THE BAT X forecast:

Great, hopefully everyone is scared away from Carroll so I could grab him cheaper in my leagues! That power/speed combo upside is too tantalizing to concern yourself with a mere 115 PA sample in the Majors.

Sadly, I didn’t end up rostering Carroll in either of my two leagues, as he enjoyed an incredibly value fantasy season. His power metrics were kind of weird though. On the one hand, he managed to post a 113.8 MPH maxEV, which is fantastic. However, he still managed to only muster a 15.4% HR/FB rate, which is above average, but not great, and his Barrel% settled in at just 7.6%. That’s disappointing. One of the reasons he exceeded both systems’ forecasts is his FB% shot up to a professional high. That’s something that was impossible to predict, as he had always been in the low-30% range and posted just a 27.4% FB% during his small sample 2022 debut. It’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll maintain that FB% surge in 2024. That said, a decline in FB% could be offset by an increased HR/FB rate.

This is what I said about Triston Casas’ appearance on this list:

I think THE BAT X is far too pessimistic here, but I’m not sure he’ll be much of a shallow mixed league asset anyway. That said, he gets a massive value boost in OBP leagues.

I was right again! Casas posted a strong 113.2 MPH maxEV and even an excellent 13.1% Barrel%, en route to an 18.6% HR/FB rate. He even pushed his FB% back above 40% to fully take advantage of that power. And while this is a home run article, I do want to note that I was right about his shallow mixed league value and the boost he should earn in OBP leagues. His OBP ended just over .100 points over his batting average, giving him a significant boost in value in leagues that count it. There’s nothing that sticks out here as fluky and he even posted a .356 wOBA against left-handers over a small sample.

Both systems missed on Shea Langeliers too, meaning Steamer won here by virtue of being more bullish. I once again noted that it seemed THE BAT X was weighing a rookie’s small sample debut Statcast metrics far too heavily, resulting in overly bearish projections. While I don’t know for sure that THE BAT X overweighed small sample Statcast data, it seemed to be a pattern. Here, Langeliers’ HR/FB rate actually declined marginally from his 2022 debut, but his maxEV increased from an excellent mark to an even more excellent mark, while his Barrel% jumped into double digits. These are numbers that normally result in a higher than 14.7% HR/FB rate. The problem here was his home park, as he posted a significantly lower HR/FB rate there (8.8%) than on the road (19.5%). His home park isn’t going to change, but I’m sure he’ll have a bit better luck next year. I think there’s HR/FB rate upside here, but that batting average and OBP are killer.