2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Batting Average Forecasts, Part 2, A Review

Yesterday, I reviewed THE BAT X batting average favorites, as part of my recap of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting the system against Steamer in various fantasy categories. THE BAT X was closer for five of six players in which it was most bullish on. Let’s now check in on the hitters Steamer was most optimistic on for batting average compared to THE BAT X.

It’s another strong showing for THE BAT X! Despite this being a collection of Steamer batting average favorites, THE BAT X proved closer on five of seven hitters here. Let’s discuss the names.

Compared to THE BAT X, Steamer was most bullish on Jose Siri’s batting average. He ended up finishing smack in the middle of the two forecasts, though a bit closer to THE BAT X. With his combination of power and speed, Siri is an intriguing fantasy asset. There are two problems though — he rarely walks and he swings and misses, resulting in strikeouts, far too often. He was basically a two true outcome hitter this year, either striking out or hitting a home run. He was also an extreme fly ball hitter and posted a low line drive rate, both of which knocked his BABIP down to just .269. A BABIP well below the league average combined with a mid-30% strikeout rate is a recipe to a terrible batting average. His power was strong enough to still make him an acceptable hitter, plus he’s excellent defensively, so even with the bad batting average, he was quite valuable for the Rays. It means he should still earn significant playing time next year as we cross our fingers he could bring that strikeout rate below 30%, without harming his power.

Wow, what a fantasy season for CJ Abrams! This is exactly what I was hoping Adalberto Mondesi would do for several years running now! THE BAT X nearly nailed the batting average projection here, as Abrams’ strikeout rate jumped, while his BABIP fell from his 2022 debut. It looks like he may have intentionally gone for a more power-oriented approach, as the higher strikeout rate coincided with the highest FB% of his career, along with an increased maxEV and a more than tripling of his Barrel%. While it led to better overall results than 2022, he was still barely palatable, posting just a .306 wOBA. His UZR was strong, but OAA and RAA in the negative, so I’m not sure whether he was actually a good or weak defender. He’s still just 22 years old so improvement is likely, but just be cautious automatically assuming every day at-bats, as his fantasy contributions are far better than his actual on-field real baseball contributions right now.

Outside of a strong 2022, Nolan Arenado has predictably been significantly worse offensively than he was while a member of the Rockies. Of course, age certainly has something to do with the decline, and he was also poor in his last year with the Rockies during the short 2020 season. Anyway, both systems expected some serious regression off his 2022 batting average, but Steamer proved closer by being less pessimistic. Arenado’s strikeout rate actually surged to its highest since 2018, while his BABIP dropped marginally from 2022, so it’s actually pretty surprising that the more bearish forecast here wasn’t the correct one. Looking at the preseason projections, the answer is that THE BAT X was projecting just a .257 BABIP, which is well below any other system, including Steamer’s .270 forecast. Arenado actually finished with a .279 one, so he beat all the projections.

Finally, J.P. Crawford enjoyed the power breakout necessary to make him worthy of fantasy consideration. All those extra home runs, combined with his second best BABIP, was enough to exceed Steamer’s more bullish projection. He even managed to do so despite a strikeout rate that jumped to its highest mark since 2019. That’s kind of surprising given that his SwStk% didn’t move all that much. I kind of love his profile now though, as his walk rate also spiked to a sublime 14.7%, so this was a true breakout. However, he still sported a tiny Barrel%, so I’m not really convinced the HR/FB rate was real. Sure enough, his xSLG was just .379, significantly below his .438 actual mark. Since he doesn’t steal bases, I think he’ll be overvalued in deeper leagues if owners expect a power repeat.

It was another forgettable year for Tony Kemp, who somehow managed to accrue 419 PAs on the worst team in baseball, despite now two straight seasons with a sub-.300 wOBA. Someone please explain why the worst team gives so much playing time to a 31-year-old who can’t hit. Interestingly, Kemp posted his best strikeout rate of his career, the first time it dropped into single digits. However, he combined that with his lowest ever BABIP of just .221, along with his usual limited power. It makes him the very definition of the type of hitter who gets a significant boost in value in OBP leagues! At least he stole 15 bases to contribute positively somewhere.

What the heck happened to Kolten Wong?! His wOBA fell by a full .100 points, turning him from a solid middle infielder, to a pinch runner. Obviously the pessimistic forecast won out here, as his BABIP dropped to just .218, easily a career worst. He also struck out more than 20% of the time for the first time in his career, so everything went downhill here.

Masataka Yoshida finished right in the middle of the two forecasts, but slightly closer to THE BAT X. In Japan, he posted a career .326 BABIP, and never recorded a mark below .307, yet THE BAT X was at .299, the lowest of any system. Fenway Park is a BABIP-booster, so I was pretty optimistic about the BABIP potential here, and he did end up posting a .316 mark. However, his 14% strikeout rate was well above any of the systems, but THE BAT X was projecting a much higher strikeout rate than Steamer, the most bullish of the systems. Overall, the higher strikeout rate more than offset the BABIP, giving THE BAT X the narrow edge here. Next year, I foresee a higher walk rate and more power, as there’s room for upside in both his FB% and HR/FB rate given his high maxEV. Unfortunately, he was weak defensively, so he’s going to have to hit to stay in the lineup.