2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Batting Average Forecasts, Part 2

Yesterday, I pivoted the 2023 projection showdown pitting THE BAT X against Steamer to batting average. These were the hitters THE BAT X was more bullish on for batting average than Steamer. Now let’s find out who Steamer is more bullish on than THE BAT X for batting average and what’s driving the difference in forecast.

This is an interesting mix of hitters!

Jose Siri easily tops the list of hitters Steamer is most bullish on for batting average compared to THE BAT X. The 27-year-old figures to be the Rays’ starting center fielder after the departure of Kevin Kiermaier. While his power/speed mix warrant attention from fantasy owners, his batting average is questionable. Steamer is both projecting a significantly lower strikeout rate, and the lowest among the projection systems, along with a significantly higher BABIP, though in line with both ZiPS and ATC. Siri swings and misses often and has struck out frequently in the minors, typically over 30% of the time. So Steamer’s more bullish strikeout rate projection looks a bit too rosy to me. In terms of BABIP forecasts, Siri’s batted ball profile is relatively league average, with a slightly higher FB%, while his minor league record has been all over the map, with an absurd .436 BABIP as his best. I would probably lean closer to Steamer’s BABIP forecast, but perhaps project closer to .315. Combined with a higher strikeout rate than Steamer projects likely brings me closer to ATC’s batting average projection, which is in between Steamer and THE BAT X, but slightly closer to the former.

Former top prospect CJ Abrams played about a half a season during his 2022 debut, but failed to impress with the bat. He now figures to open the season as the Nationals’ starting shortstop. We see a familiar story here with Steamer projecting both the lowest strikeout rate among systems, versus the highest forecast from THE BAT X, and the highest BABIP, compared to the lowest from THE BAT X. Abrams swings a lot, which is why he is able to maintain a better than average strikeout rate, despite a worse than average SwStk%. Of course, it doesn’t exactly result in strong offense, as he walked just 1.7% of the time during his MLB debut. I have to imagine he’ll swing a bit less this season, and while he does that, it’s likely his strikeout rate rises above Steamer’s forecast. Abrams has posted strong BABIP marks in the minors, backed by a high LD% and lots of speed. It didn’t carry over over the half season in the Majors, but that’s a small sample. I’m surprised how unimpressive the BABIP forecasts are overall, so I side with Steamer here and think there’s additional upside. Because I think there’s further BABIP upside which could offset Steamer being too low on strikeout rate, I’ll side with their batting average forecast.

Wow, odd to see a veteran like Nolan Arenado third on this list! He handily outperformed his xBA, which is likely what’s accounting for THE BAT X’s bearishness here. As an extreme fly baller who hit lots of pop-ups, and without his former Coors Field home inflating BABIP, Arenado should struggle to reach even a league average BABIP. Steamer isn’t even the highest BABIP forecast here, but THE BAT X is far and away on its own island with just a .253 BABIP forecast. That seems absurdly low, even though his batted ball distribution means it’s certainly possible. The strikeout rate projections are nearly identical, so it’s all about the BABIP. I’m going to lean closer to Steamer, even if it could end up a couple of ticks lower.

Sadly, J.P. Crawford hasn’t increased his power or started running more often, making him pretty useless in fantasy leagues. Once again, Steamer is most bullish on BABIP, though right in line with the other systems, while THE BAT X is the only system below .285. What’s interesting is Crawford actually underperformed his xBA, so this doesn’t appear to be a case of overweighting one season of Statcast data. Though he did just post a career worst IFFB%, I see no reason to think his BABIP shouldn’t revert toward his career average, as THE BAT X’s forecast is just barely above the lowest mark of his career. Again, I’m siding with Steamer.

Tony Kemp isn’t that different than Crawford, though he did at least steal double digit bases last year. Again, the strikeout rate projections are about the same here, so it comes down to Steamer being in line with the other systems, while THE BAT X is significantly below as the lowest of all. Even with below average power, Kemp oddly hits a higher than league average rate of fly balls. It’s one of the reasons why his career BABIP sits at just .272. Though THE BAT X is projecting a slightly higher BABIP than 2022, I think the odds are he’ll post a better mark as he’s coming off the highest IFFB% of his career, which should improve.

Kolten Wong moves to Seattle, with a home park that’s slightly better for singles, but worse for doubles and triples. Overall, it probably shouldn’t have a significant impact on his BABIP. Here’s another example of Steamer being right in line with the other systems in both strikeout rate and BABIP, but THE BAT X is most pessimistic on both among all the systems. I have no idea what’s behind its forecasted jump in strikeout rate, to Wong’s highest since his 2013 debut, that came in just 59 at-bats. Steamer and the rest of the systems matching his 2022 looks much more reasonable. THE BAT X’s BABIP forecast too is well below Wong’s career mark, and even recent history. THE BAT X is forecasting his lowest since 2016. Given Steamer’s projection is closer to recent past, I’m going to lean toward their forecast.

I purposely went down the list to include Masataka Yoshida, since he’ll be making his MLB debut after a career in the Japanese league. He certainly picked a good landing spot for BABIP and batting average, as Fenway is one of the league’s premier BABIP-boosting fields. BABIP forecasts among the systems are a wider range than I’ve seen, but THE BAT X is the only one below .300. In Japan, he posted a career .326 BABIP, and never recorded a mark below .307. The lowest mark since his second season in 2017 was .314. Given his above average BABIP ability and moving to a park that inflates BABIP, I side closer to Steamer’s BABIP projection. In addition, Steamer forecasts the lowest strikeout rate among the systems, and the only one in single digits, while THE BAT X matches ATC with the highest projection at 12.1%. Yoshida has posted a career strikeout rate of 9.4%, but hasn’t exceeded 8.2% in his last three seasons, which is pretty incredible. Still, I think a single digit strikeout rate in his MLB debut is too optimistic. It’s hard to say which batting average forecast I tend towards, since I favor a strikeout rate between these two systems, but a BABIP of at least what Steamer is projecting. All I know is that he should be excellent in OBP formats.