2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Batting Average Forecasts, Part 1, A Review

Let’s continue on reviewing the 2023 projection showdown series, pitting THE BAT X projections against the Steamer forecast in various statistical categories. Today, we’ll move on to batting average. Batting average projections are tough as they rely heavily on BABIP, which is driven a great deal by the whims of lady luck. So over a small sample of players, the system that proved closer here isn’t necessarily better at projecting batting average. So that’s the caveat. With that out of the way, let’s get to the players that THE BAT X was projecting for a significantly higher batting average than Steamer and find out which system ended up closer.

Well then, I’m guessing Derek Carty from THE BAT X would like me to get rid of the sentence above where I say the system that proved closer here isn’t necessarily better at projecting batting average! THE BAT X was closer on five of six players. Let’s see how they did it.

Shohei Ohtani ended up posting the highest batting average of his career, so it’s no surprise that he handily exceeded the projections. He actually didn’t need a career best BABIP to do it either, as merely an above career average mark, combined with his lowest strikeout rate, was enough. Oh, and he also posted the second highest HR/FB rate in his career, so more balls in play, plus a strong rate of balls in play falling for hits, plus the second highest rate of his fly balls going for home runs, led to the .300+ batting average. I wonder whether the elbow surgery he underwent in mid-September will have any effect on his hitting next year.

Willson Contreras posted his highest batting average since 2019 as his BABIP jumped back above .300 after dipping below in the last two years. What really drove that BABIP was his highest LD% of his career. It’s actually the first time his mark has jumped above 20%, which is pretty shocking! Previously, his highest LD% in a season was 19.5% and his second highest just 17.9%! So he has been pretty poor at hitting line drives during his career, but has still managed to post an above average .307 career BABIP.

Will Smith almost perfectly finished in the middle of the two, just barely ending up closer to THE BAT X’s more optimistic projection. He’s the only one who’s batting average finished between the two forecasts. While his strikeout rate improved to a career best over a full season, his HR/FB rate dropped to a career worst, while his BABIP has been stuck in the mid-.270 range for three straight seasons. Oddly, his maxEV reached a career high, but a drop in Barrel% to a career low ensured his HR/FB rate continued its downward trend. I think he’s a pretty obvious candidate to enjoy a power rebound next year.

Gosh, what a rebound power year for J.D. Martinez! His HR/FB rate jumped to its highest since 2018, while his ISO popped to its highest since 2017. Because of all that unexpected power, he was able to beat his batting average projections despite a career worst strikeout rate that jumped above 30% for the first time. His BABIP remained above average, but below his norms, at the lowest mark going back to his Houston Astros days, if we ignore the shortened 2020 season. I’m curious how he’ll be valued next year as I’m definitely not keen on paying up for a 36-year-old whose power had been on the decline until this happened.

Joey Votto was the only name that Steamer was closer on, as he missed all forecasts thanks to a very unVottolike .212 BABIP. It came over just 242 PAs, but this is a guy with a career .335 mark, but hasn’t posted one above .300 since 2019. He still has power, but he’s swinging and miss more and more and his once elite LD% and lack of pop-ups have reversed course.

THE BAT X almost nailed Nick Castellanos’ batting average, despite a jump in strikeout rate to well above his career mark. His BABIP was strong as usual, marginally higher than his career, while his HR/FB rate rebounded nicely from a disappointing 2022. Everything pretty much looks back to normal here, except that SwStk% is getting scary. He posted the highest mark in baseball among hitters with at least 450 PAs. However, because he swings so often, he rarely walks and also doesn’t strike out as often as the high SwStk% would suggest. It’s something worth watching as the strikeouts could get out of control fast.