2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT vs Steamer Starting Pitcher Projected $ Value, Part 2

Yesterday, I compared starting pitcher projected dollar value as part of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT/THE BAT X forecasts against Steamer projections in the various fantasy categories, identifying the pitchers THE BAT was more bullish on. Today, we finish this series by identifying and discussing which pitchers Steamer is a bigger fan of compared to THE BAT.

This is a fun group!

Blake Snell has been a true roller coaster rider, as his ERA has bounced around from below 2.00 and just above 3.00 to above 4.00, alternating each year. However, his strikeout rate has been consistently above 30% for five straight seasons. Yet, both Steamer and THE BAT are projecting a dip below 30%, with THE BAT lowest among forecasts. Furthermore, THE BAT is the only system projecting a walk rate into double digits. Steamer is also the lowest system on his BABIP at well below his career average and highest LOB% projection. That all combines to yield the lowest projected ERA, while THE BAT is significantly above the rest of the systems. I find THE BAT’s forecast overly bearish, and while I think Steamer’s is probably too optimistic, I do think he finishes closer to its results.

Having pitched just 195.2 innings since 2019, Chris Sale is somewhat of a crapshoot. He’s not coming off an arm injury this time, which is good, but at age 34, no one truly knows what we’re going to get. THE BAT is super pessimistic about his strikeout rate, forecasting a mark well below the other systems, and that’s most of the difference here. Unless he experiences a sudden dramatic velocity dip (and his velocity was actually up last year over his mere 5.2 innings), I think Steamer’s strikeout rate projection proves closer, and therefore their overall projection.

After injuries and poor performance, Alex Cobb is back now and even boosted his strikeout rate. Steamer is projecting a slight decline there, but holding onto more gains than THE BAT forecasts, which is the lowest of the bunch. THE BAT is also highest on his BABIP at .320, which is odd considering his career mark is just below .300. Then again, the change in shift rules may really hurt ground ball pitchers like Cobb. Ultimately, I think Cobb finishes somewhere in the middle of the two sets.

I knew Shane McClanahan was the next elite ace when I checked the results of his pitch mix during his 2021 debut. With three non-fastballs registering high teen SwStk% marks to go along with a high 90s heater, the writing was on the wall. THE BAT, though, is projecting a decline in strikeout to just below his 2021 debut mark, while the other systems, including Steamer are right around his career average from his first two MLB seasons. It’s an easy call to favor Steamer’s projection here.

A strong September turned around the perception of Hunter Greene’s season and really pumped his cost this draft season, despite finishing with a disappointing 4.44 ERA. Steamer is betting on his premium velocity to continue translating into a high strikeout rate near 30%, while THE BAT is well below the other systems at just 27.5%. His SwStk% were good, but not exactly elite during his rookie year. The fastball was as advertised, averaging near 100 MPH and generating an elite 13.3% SwStk%. However, his slider at a 17.7% SwStk% was very good, but not amazing, while his changeup was awful, posting just a 3.4% SwStk%. I would have liked to see a better mix and/or higher rates here to support a 30%+ strikeout rate. I think that makes him slightly riskier, especially if he loses any fastball velocity. Still, I simply can’t get behind THE BAT’s 4.39 ERA projection, as both his SIERA and xERA was far better. Steamer isn’t projecting a dramatically lower ERA to begin with, so even that system could prove not bullish enough!

Nick Lodolo is the second Reds pitcher on here and just as exciting. While he doesn’t have Greene’s fastball velocity, he did feature an elite curveball that generated a 20.6% SwStk%. His changeup sat in double digits as well, giving him a better overall pitch mix than Greene, without having to rely on averaging 99 MPH with his fastball and sustaining that velocity. Steamer is most bullish on Lodolo’s strikeout rate, while THE BAT is most bearish, and it’s not even close to the other systems. We don’t have a very big professional sample size of work from Lodolo to get a sense of what his true strikeout rate talent is. He flew through the minors, so we really need to just go by his 2022 results, which look pretty darn good. I think Steamer might be a little too bullish given the unknowns, but I do believe its projections prove closer than THE BAT’s, which I think is too pessimistic here.