2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT vs Steamer Starting Pitcher Projected $ Value, Part 1

I’m going to finish up the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT/THE BAT X forecasts against Steamer projections in the various fantasy categories, with starting pitcher dollar values. This sums up the forecasts in one tidy number and makes it easy to identify which pitchers each system likes better. Today, we’ll start with the starting pitchers that THE BAT is valuing significantly higher than Steamer.

Holy guacamole, that’s a massive discrepancy between the systems for Julio Urías! THE BAT thinks he’s an ace, while Steamer projects him just worse than Alex Wood. While THE BAT is forecasting slightly better strikeout and walk rates, the biggest difference comes from BABIP. THE BAT is tied with ZiPS on the bull scale with a low of .270, while Steamer is all the way up at .292. Urías hasn’t posted a BABIP above .272 since 2017. As a fly ball pitcher who generates pop-ups, he should consistently post better than league average BABIP marks and while I wouldn’t forecast a mark as low as THE BAT, I would certainly be a bit closer to the system than Steamer. Similarly, the two system’s HR/9 projection is significantly different, again stemming from his amazing ability to keep flies in the park during his short career. THE BAT believes it’s a skill, while Steamer believes he’s been a lucky MOFO. I like checking xERA to see its calculations, as it accounts for batted ball data. If Urías has lucked out at preventing hits on balls in play and keeping flies in the park, we should see that in him massively overperforming his xERA. While he certainly has — he’s overperformed the last four years — it’s nowhere near the overperformance of his SIERA, suggesting his batted ball data mostly justifies the low BABIP and HR/9. I wouldn’t quite expect him to earn $27, but he’s certainly closer to that number than sub-$8 in my mind!

It’s been an impressive first two seasons for former top prospect Alek Manoah. Last year, his strikeout rate plunged, but his ERA did as well thanks to a well below average HR/FB rate and LOB% over 80%. Both of those shouldn’t be expected to happen again. Here, we find THE BAT is actually most pessimistic on his strikeout rate, which is surprising considering how much more value it’s projecting him to earn compared to Steamer! Once again, it comes down to discrepancies in the two “luck” metrics, as THE BAT is far more optimistic about his BABIP and HR/9 than Steamer. His xERA suggests he was deserving of overperforming his SIERA in 2021, but not in 2022. It’s a pretty small sample size to be confident that he’s going to be a BABIP and HR/FB beater, but even THE BAT’s projection provides enough downside cushion versus what he’s done in his short career so far to feel like there likely won’t be even more regression than it forecasts. My only concern is that his fastball velocity is down this Spring, sitting at 91.9 MPH, versus 93.9 MPH last year. Even worse, his outing on Sunday averaged just 90.7 MPH. It’s still relatively early so no need to panic yet, but definitely something worth monitoring.

Cristian Javier has shown up on a bunch of these lists, so I’ve run out of things to say. As an extreme fly ball pitcher, he breaks all projection systems. The gap between forecasts aren’t as big as the above too, but THE BAT is projecting a slightly higher strikeout rate and lower BABIP and HR/9 marks. His xERA has been significantly lower than his SIERA, suggesting his batted ball data matters and justifies the low BABIP, though the super high LOB% isn’t likely to last. I can’t understand how he strikes out so many hitters with just average fastball velocity and a slider that isn’t much better than average at generating whiffs. But it’s been 304.1 innings so far, so it’s time to come around. I’m betting he finishes closer to THE BAT’s value.

It’s interesting to find Sandy Alcantara’s name here as he’s not an extreme fly ball pitcher like the others. He still hasn’t really converted his near 98 MPH fastball into a high strikeout rate, but has reduced his walk rate every season and relied on a low BABIP to become an elite pitcher anyway. Again, we find that THE BAT is actually more pessimistic about his strikeout rate than Steamer is, but is forecasting a much lower BABIP, though well above the low system on the totem pole, ZiPS. Despite being a ground ball pitcher, which you would think would result in a higher BABIP because grounders fall for hits far more often than flies do, he has posted just a .268 mark over his career. Furthermore, THE BAT is projecting the lowest HR/9 of the bunch and a mark well below even his own career average. He’s only posted a mark lower than the 0.73 forecast once in his relatively short career! His xERA has outperformed his SIERA, but it’s not as impressive as the above names. That suggests that he’s been luckier and isn’t as deserving of these super low ERAs as the above names might have been. I’m going with Steamer on this one, as a $29 projected value I think is pretty crazy.

We welcome back extreme fly ball pitchers with Joe Ryan, who has as extreme as it gets, posted a career 54% fly ball rate during his short career. We find again that THE BAT is most pessimistic on strikeout rate, but most optimistic on his BABIP. Inducing so many flies, and with a high IFFB%, that’s a lot of easy outs that should result in a low BABIP. I definitely side with THE BAT’s optimistic BABIP projection here. The HR/9 projections aren’t as far apart as some other names and the two systems are actually projecting the highest and second highest marks among systems. So that means there’s a sizeable gap between the highest and second highest forecasts. There’s a correlation between FB% and HR/FB rate, as in a high FB% correlates with a lower HR/FB rate, so you might expect a better than average mark here. I’m going with THE BAT on Ryan.

We flip back to high ground ball pitchers with Max Fried, whose skill set looks very similar to Alcantara’s. But here, xERA likes him better and the gap between its calculation and SIERA’s is wider than for Alcantara, suggesting Fried’s batted ball profile is superior. The two systems project almost identical strikeout and walk rates, so the difference here is all about the BABIP and HR/9. I’m not sure how he has sustained BABIP marks at .280 and below the last three seasons, or such low HR/FB rates in 2020 and 2022. Clearly, there’s some good fortune involved, but xERA suggests not as much as one might think. I think THE BAT already accounts for enough regression, similar to Manoah, so I’m going to lean toward its forecast.