2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT vs Steamer Starting Pitcher K%, Part 1, A Review

After spending nearly all October reviewing the hitter category comparisons as part of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X against Steamer forecasts, it’s time to move on to starting pitchers. Today, I’ll start with strikeout rate and the names of those in which THE BAT (THE BAT X only projects hitters) was more bullish on compared to Steamer.

First off, this was quite a fun group with some elite pitchers mixed in! Second, woah did Steamer dominate, proving closer on five of six pitchers. Is this that surprising though? This list was almost entirely top tier strikeout artists, and the fact that they missed their optimistic projection is just a reminder that it’s really hard to remain elite at striking hitters out.

You would think a super veteran like Clayton Kershaw would be fairly easy to project, with the computer systems all pretty much agreeing. That was not the case this year, as the systems differed by the largest amount among starting pitchers. Turns out, he finished almost right in between the two forecasts, as his strikeout rate slipped to its lowest since 2018. His average fastball velocity has now settled in just below 91 MPH for three seasons running now, but the good news is that it has stabilized. Of course, it doesn’t mean he won’t lose another tick, but perhaps this is the bottom. The concern here though is a walk rate that rose to his highest since 2010, and SIERA that jumped to his highest since 2009. He has now had trouble keeping fly balls in the park, but he was so good at it before 2017 that his career HR/FB rate is still in single digits. However, he’s still been elite at keeping batted balls from going for hits, as his BABIP has once again finished far better than the league average. Will that skill erode too?

Tyler Anderson also finished with a strikeout rate between the two forecasts and he’s the only one on this list with both projections sitting below 20%. Steamer’s forecast, in particular, was quite bearish, as it called for the lowest mark of his career, if you ignore the short 2020 season. And he did end up setting a new career low, which paired poorly with the highest walk rate of his career. His BABIP luck from 2022 also vanished, as his ERA shot up to meet his SIERA, all the while the latter hopped above 5.00. His fastball velocity is fast approaching the danger zone, so unless that bounces back up I wouldn’t want him anywhere close to my fantasy team.

At age 40, Justin Verlander’s strikeout rate plummeted to its lowest mark since all the way back in 2014. None of the systems saw that coming. His SwStk% also fell into single digits for the first time since that same year. He still finished with excellent results though, as he benefited from the combo of a low BABIP and HR/FB rate to overperform his SIERA by more than a full run. While you have to assume some sort of strikeout rate rebound, I wouldn’t want to rely on a low BABIP and HR/FB rate again, which makes him a risky bet next year and what figures to be another expensive draft day price.

Man oh man, Jacob deGrom just cannot avoid the injury bug. This year, he was limited to just 30.1 innings as he ultimately needed Tommy John surgery. Of course, he was as unbelievable as always while he was able to take the mound, giving THE BAT its only win on the list.

Sheesh, that was quite the collapse in Cristian Javier’s strikeout rate, losing a full ten percentage points from 2022. The move to the rotation full-time figured to reduce his strikeout rate, but by this much? He did lose a mile per hour of fastball velocity, but his pitch mix has been essentially unchanged since entering the league in 2020. As an extreme fly ball pitcher, there’s gopheritis risk, but at least his batted ball profile leads to a low BABIP. He really needs those strikeouts back though as previous solo homers become two and three run shots with more balls in play leading to more baserunners.

After a breakout small sample in 2022, driven by a new slider and increased fastball velocity, I was eager to see what Andrew Heaney would do this year. THE BAT believed in his breakout a bit more than Steamer, but both proved far too bullish. Instead of just experiencing normal regression back to his historical levels, Heaney actually ended up posting his lowest strikeout rate since 2015! He even moved to the bullpen in September, but even there posted a strikeout rate just below his projections as a starter. Looking at his pitch mix, it’s surprising what happened here. While his fastball velocity dropped back, it still remained right in between his 2021 and 2022 seasons, and while his slider usage declined, he still threw the pitch 25% of the time. But for whatever reason, both pitches lost the whiff abilities, and his slider lost nearly ten percentage points of SwStk%. It’s anyone’s guess if he’ll open next year with a rotation spot and if he does, how much his strikeout rate rebounds.