2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT vs Steamer Starting Pitcher ERA, Part 4, A Review

Today is the final ERA forecast review as part of the 2023 projection showdown. We finish up with six more of Steamer’s ERA favorites compared to THE BAT. Let’s see which system fared better.

Another day, another set of players where Steamer is closer on the majority. Steamer now finishes closer on 18 or 24 (75%) of ERA forecasts in which the two systems disagreed the most. That’s pretty impressive.

After missing all of 2022 and only recording a total of 21.2 innings between 2020 and 2021, James Paxton’s projections this year were a complete shot in the dark. Through the end of June, Steamer didn’t look optimistic enough, as Paxton was sitting pretty with a 2.70 ERA and a vintage 31.1% strikeout rate. Then the wheels fell off in July and August, before his season ended early due to injury. Over those two months and the 1.1 innings he threw on Sep 1, he posted a bloated 6.46 ERA and his strikeout rate collapsed to just 18.6%. His fastball velocity chart tells the story as it represents a perfect downtrend. Through the end of June, he averaged 95.8 MPH with his fastball, but lost a full mile per hour after that. Perhaps he wasn’t pitching healthy, but it’s pretty clear that a healthy Paxton still possesses pretty good stuff.

Finally, Yusei Kikuchi was able to nudge his ERA below 4.00 for the first time. He also avoided underperforming his SIERA for the first time as well, this time matching it perfectly. Steamer ended up nearly nailing the ERA projection here, despite Kikuchi posting the highest BABIP of his career. What helped this time is better HR/FB rate luck, though his mark still finished well above the league average, while his LOB% surged to a career best. He also got his control back as his walk rate rebounded to match his 2019 debut mark. There’s no reason to believe he isn’t capable of continuing to hang out around the 4.00 ERA mark.

Welp, that didn’t go as Kyle Muller, or any of the projection systems, planned! In his first year in Oakland, not much went right in his underlying skills. His strikeout rate was a tiny 15.1%, mostly driven by an inability to generate called strikes. His control issues continued as well, as he walked 10.5% of opposing batters. The .372 BABIP and worse than league average HR/FB and LOB% marks all together inflated his ERA even higher. I don’t know what happened here as he was awful at Triple-A as well after dominating there last year while a member of the Braves. He’s not a 2024 speculation I’ll be making.

Initially, Shintaro Fujinami opened the season as a starting pitcher, which is why he ended up on the list. However, just four starts in, two of which he went exactly 2.1 innings and allowed eight runs (wow!), he was moved to the bullpen and remained there for the rest of the season, even after getting picked up by the Orioles. Despite clearly solid strikeout stuff highlighted by an excellent splitter, he doesn’t generate enough called strikes, and his control is poor. What really inflated his ERA though was an absurdly low 53.4% LOB%. That was the lowest mark in baseball among all pitchers who recorded at least 70 innings. He’s a good project for a pitching coach as I feel like one change could improve his control and make him a dominant reliever.

Steamer was bullish on José Quintana?! That was a surprise for a guy who has regularly overperformed his SIERA marks. This year over just under half a season, he once again did just that, ensuring Steamer’s bullish call was correct. He actually posted the highest SIERA of his entire career thanks to his first sub-20% strikeout rate since 2013, but a microscopic 6% HR/FB rate fueled the overperformance. He’s not a pitcher I would ever roster, but maybe he continues overperforming his SIERA and earns some fantasy value despite mediocre skills.

After a nice rebound season in 2022 that saw Blake Snell post a 3.38 ERA following a 4.20 mark in 2021, Steamer called for more of the same, while THE BAT forecasted regression. Instead, Snell posted the second lowest ERA of his career, combined with his highest SIERA since 2017! Who would have guessed that was coming?! Snell’s strikeout rate remained above 30% for the sixth straight season, but his walk rate jumped to a career worst, back to double digits for the fourth time. A .256 BABIP, the second lowest of his career and third lowest among qualified pitchers, saved him, as did a sky-high 86.7% LOB%, which was by far the highest among qualified pitchers. Suffice to say, his skills certainly do not support that ERA result. I’m still a fan overall thanks to the strikeouts, but his cost may vary wildly depending on league and your opponents. I’ll pay for a mid-to-high 3.00 ERA and lots of strikeouts, but nothing more. Also don’t forget about his injury history, as he has only exceeded 130 innings twice now in his career.