2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT vs Steamer Starting Pitcher ERA, Part 3, A Review

Unlike the other projection showdowns, I decided to go a bit deeper on the ERA forecasts, reviewing the next six names on each system’s bullish list. Today, we’ll jump back into THE BAT’s starting pitcher ERA favorites. As a reminder, these were the system’s top six.

Yet again, Steamer takes the cake, proving closer on five of six forecasts. If you’re not keeping track, that means that Steamer has proven closer on 14 of 18 ERA forecasts in which one of the systems was significantly more bullish than the other. Still a small sample of players, but it says a lot given that these players represented the biggest disagreements between the two ERA projections.

Neither system was very excited about Josiah Gray, projecting a high 4.00 ERA. Without a high strikeout rate, it would have been difficult to find someone projected to earn less value (or earn more negative value) than Gray. Fortunately, Gray’s luck turned around this year. While his strikeout rate slipped, walk rate increased, and SIERA and xERA both jumped above 5.00 for the first time, his HR/FB rate finally fell to around league average, while his LOB% remained just above 80%. That allowed him to handily overperform his expected ERA metrics, after handily underperforming them in 2021 and 2022. His career ERA now stands almost identical to his career SIERA, which is how regression is supposed to work! What luck taketh away, luck eventually giveth. I used to be a fan here expected a strikeout rate spike, but with declining fastball velocity and SwStk%, and an inability to reduce his walk rate to double digits, I wouldn’t touch him in any league format.

Tony Gonsolin has made a career of dramatically overperforming his SIERA and xERA marks by posting microscopic BABIP marks. He did that again this year, but his HR/FB rate jumped to the highest of his career, while his LOB% slipped below 70% for the first time. Oh, and his strikeout rate fell below 20% for the first time, so his overall skills were the worst they’ve been, with SIERA and xERA marks over 5.00. So his skills deteriorated and he didn’t have lady luck on his side as much as he’s used to. These types are always tough to project. That said, perhaps his elbow was hurting him all season, as his year ended prematurely when he had to undergo Tommy John surgery. It’s anyone’s guess how he’ll perform when he returns.

Despite a strong strikeout rate rebound and his lowest SIERA since 2018, Domingo Germán’s ERA jumped back above 4.00 as forecasted, thanks to an inflated HR/FB rate and the lowest LOB% of his career. As a flyball pitcher, a high HR/FB rate is a killer, leading to annual bouts of gopheritis. His future is uncertain as he just became a free agent and has dealt with personal issues that teams might choose not to deal with.

After a strong first full season in 2022, the projections both called for Joe Ryan’s ERA to hop over 4.00. It happened, but perhaps he didn’t deserve it. His strikeout rate spiked amid a jump in SwStk%, walk rate improved, and he posted mid-3.00 SIERA and xERA rates. After overperforming his SIERA last year, he significantly underperformed it this year, thanks to a worse than league average BABIP, despite an extreme fly ball tendency, and HR/FB rate. While I wouldn’t expect the strikeout rate to last, given that it was driven by a mid-teens SwStk% from his four-seamer, which will be difficult to repeat, his luck should definitely improve next year. It’s hard to imagine a pitcher with a 50% fly ball rate allowing a BABIP over .300 again.

Man, the projection systems certainly called José Urquidy disappointing season! Both forecasted career worst ERAs, marks over 4.00 for the first time of his career. Not only did he oblige, he posted a mark over 5.00! His strikeout rate plummeted as his called strikes disappeared, and he ended up missing a chunk of time due to a shoulder injury, which most likely impacted his results. As an extreme fly ball pitcher with mediocre strikeout stuff, he’s not the type that ends up on my roster.

After successfully transitioning to the rotation full-time in 2022, Nestor Cortes also ended up missing a big chunk of the season due to a shoulder injury. While on the mound, he was a major disappointment by posting an ERA near 5.00. However, he significantly underperformed both his SIERA and xERA, thanks mainly to a low LOB%. I’m still having trouble believing in the strikeout rate given an underwhelming CSW%, but given good health, his results should clearly improve next year.