2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT vs Steamer Starting Pitcher ERA, Part 2, A Review

Today we continue to review preseason ERA projections from THE BAT and Steamer as part of the 2023 projection showdown recap. Yesterday, I reviewed THE BAT’s ERA favorites, so today it’s time to scamper on over to Steamer’s ERA favorites.

This matchup was closer than yesterday’s, but Steamer still came out ahead, with four forecasts that proved closer versus just two for THE BAT.

Kodai Senga made his MLB debut after coming over from playing in the Nippon Professional Baseball league in Japan. As is usually the case when trying to project foreign players making their MLB debut, it’s hard. The forecasts here were massively different, with THE BAT suggesting he would be useless in just about every format and league size, while Steamer’s projection suggested he would actually earn positive value even in shallow mixed leagues. That’s a big difference! Turns out, Steamer was right, but even their optimism was greatly exceeded. Senga ended up posting an ERA just below 3.00 as his strikeout rate surprised to the upside.

However, he seems to have been quite fortunate to escape with such strong bottom line results. His SIERA and xERA were both around a full run higher than his actual ERA, thanks to an unsustainable 80.3% HR/FB rate and a .277 BABIP despite a fairly league average batted ball profile. A double digit walk rate didn’t hurt him, but is a concern. With an elite splitter and mid-90s fastball that peaked at just over 100 MPH, he clearly has the stuff to succeed. I’m guessing he’ll improve his control, all the while his luck metrics regress, pushing his ERA into the mid-to-high threes next year, which will still make him quite valuable given all the strikeouts.

Since peaking in 2018, Patrick Corbin’s strikeout rate has tumbled, declining every single season since, hitting a career low of just 15.7% this year. His slider simply hasn’t been as effective as it has in the past and since his fastballs generate well below average swings and misses, he has run out of strikeout stuff. I don’t know what would bring back the slider, but his success hinges on its return.

Nick Martinez ended up spending the majority of his innings in the bullpen, which undoubtedly improved his performance, so it’s not quite fair to compare preseason ERA projections. We no longer have access to the preseason projections, so I’m not sure if one or both systems forecasted him as a starter all season long. I would guess so given how pessimistic THE BAT was on his ERA!

Daniel Lynch missed multiple chunks of the season due to shoulder issues, limiting him to just 52.1 innings over nine starts. He has continued failing at living up to his former top prospect status, as this year he became a fly ball pitcher with a weak strikeout rate, which led to gopheritis. There still seems to be a glimmer of hope here as he still owns a pretty good changeup and slider/cutter combo. But he’s not worth speculating on unless and until he could translate that stuff into strikeouts.

Welp, Trevor Rogers’ comparison should barely count as he was limited to just 18 innings over four starts due to a biceps and then shoulder injury. Coming off a disappointing 2022 season, which itself followed a breakout 2021, he was a rebound candidate this year. His future is now cloudier given the injuries, but his strikeout potential when healthy means he shouldn’t be forgotten.

Well gee golly, Madison Bumgarner didn’t make it very long into the season, as he was released by the Diamondbacks after posting a 10.26 ERA over four starts. His career is likely over, which is unfortunate as his recent performance clouds the memory of how good he was during his peak.