2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT vs Steamer Starting Pitcher ERA, Part 1, A Review

Today, we continue reviewing the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT/THE BAT X against Steamer forecasts in various fantasy categories. We’ll stick with pitchers, but this time move on to ERA, starting with THE BAT’s favorites. After dipping below 4.00 in 2022 for the first time since 2015, leaguewide ERA jumped back above 4.00 this season, so its possible the more optimistic ERA projections were less accurate than the bearish ones. Let’s find out how THE BAT’s favorites performed.

It’s nearly a clean sweep for Steamer! While we’re still in the middle of these projection showdown, what’s becoming pretty clear is that THE BAT X looks to be the more accurate system for hitting, while Steamer remains the pitching king. Steamer has always had the best pitcher projections, so even my small sample analysis kinda confirms what the annual projection accuracy results have shown us. Let’s get to the names now.

I apologize for my love of complaining during my articles, but I can’t hold back. It figures that the first year I ever own Julio Urías, he posts by far the worst ERA of his career, more than double his mark from 2022. He has always drastically overperformed his SIERA, thanks to a combination of low BABIP and HR/FB rate, and high LOB%. But his xERA, which accounts for actual batted balls, actually mostly validates his performance in the luck metrics, though admittedly he has always overperformed those rates as well, but not nearly the degree of his SIERA overperformance. This year, Steamer projected an ERA over 4.00, which would have been his first ever ERA over 4.00. And he followed! A sudden bout of gopheritis, combined with his highest full season BABIP and lowest LOB% did him in. And for the first time, he underperformed both his SIERA and xERA. I don’t know what happened here, as the strikeout and walk rates were fine, but he’s still only 27 years old, so he looks like an ideal rebound candidate next year that might come the cheapest he ever has.

Man, not even Steamer expected Alek Manoah’s collapse this year. He was very obviously lucky in 2022, thanks to unsustainably low BABIP and HR/FB rates, plus a LOB over 80%, which likely inflated expectations and his price in 2023. But man, I didn’t expect his performance to tumble. While his strikeout rate surprisingly fell below 20%, as his fastball velocity lost a mile per hour, what was really head-scratching was his control. His walk rate skyrocketed to 14.2%, more than double his 2022 mark. No starting pitcher could survive with a walk rate that high. His stats suggest there was an injury here, but it didn’t miss any time, so who knows. It’s anyone’s guess what 2024 will bring, but since his skill set wasn’t anything special in 2022, there are better rebound speculations in my mind.

Steamer hit yet another bust in Sandy Alcantara, who was coming off a tiny 2.28 ERA in 2022. While both SIERA and xERA agreed that his results were quite fortunate, both calculations also agreed that he was still a darn good pitcher. Steamer less optimistic projection wasn’t even so bad, but he ended up posting an ERA over 4.00 for the first time. His strikeout rate fell below 20%, his BABIP rose to a career worst, but still remained better than league average, and his LOB% fell just below 70%. Yet, he still slightly overperformed both his SIERA and xERA! His strikeout rate continues to perplex. For a guy who averages 98 MPH with his fastball to only be striking out 20% of hitters is baffling. It’s crazy because his changeup, four-seamer, and slider all featured mid-teen SwStk% marks this year. How does that not result in at least a league average strikeout rate?! One of his consistent issues is he doesn’t get enough called strikes. His career average is well below the league average, and that has held back his strikeout rate. I still like his overall skill set and with that velocity, there’s always a chance of a big strikeout rate spike, so he makes for an excellent rebound speculation.

Clayton Kershaw is the only name on this list in which THE BAT proved closer. Rather than see his ERA jump back above 3.00 like both systems were projecting, he posted another sub-2.50 ERA, despite softer skills that resulted in his highest SIERA since…2009! His xERA was also the highest since we have calculations for, which goes back to 2015. Sadly, he recently underwent shoulder surgery and figures to miss a big chunk of time next year. Given his age, it’s anyone’s guess when he’ll return or how he’ll perform.

Cristian Javier is a fascinating pitcher as he has posted big strikeout rates without a high velocity fastball and no secondary pitch that has generated an above average SwStk% for his career. Apparently, the world listened to my confusion about his strikeout rate as it plummeted this year to a career worst. Some of it was due to recording all his innings as a starter this year, but he lost ten full percentage points of strikeout rate, which is massive. As an extreme fly ball pitcher, he can’t afford to allow so many more balls in play, especially with a walk rate worse than league average. His BABIP spiked this year, but still remained better than average thanks to his extreme fly ball ways, while his LOB% plummeted to below league average for the first time. While I think his results are better next year, this isn’t the type of skill set I like investing in.

None of the systems believe in Tyler Anderson’s shocking 2.57 ERA in 2022, and rightfully so, though his xERA suggests he actually deserved a lot of that low BABIP and HR/FB rate. That said, he’s never shown those skills before and at age 33, it wasn’t likely he suddenly owned them for the long haul. Sure enough, his BABIP jumped just above .300 this year, which his walk rate suddenly spiked to the highest mark of his career over a reasonable sample. He’s a good example of how risky it is to invest in low strikeout pitchers, because if the ratios aren’t there, there’s nothing else propping up his value.