2023 ADP! Kind Of?

Well, since I’m currently in one draft on NFBC, we do (technically speaking) have some fresh 2023 ADP data to obsess over. We’ll just have to play a little loose with the whole “average” part of the initialization. But regardless of sample size, there is valuable information to be gleaned from this particular draft. We just have to know what questions to ask, what should be noted, and what can be ignored.

Normally, looking at any one draft in a season is going to be mostly pointless but this first draft is different, partly because it can answer some general questions about the texture but also because of the pool of managers. I’m not saying that entering the first fantasy draft of the season makes you an expert player but I think we can safely say it makes you a bit of a degenerate. Again, being a degenerate doesn’t make you an expert (see; me) but this draft is filled with some names you know and love, as well as some highest-volume NFBC players going. AKA probably not total fools.

Since we can trust the collective skills of these degenerate drafters a bit more than if we were to pull out some random draft in January, it’s easier to trust the broad strokes of what is happening in it. For example, let’s start in the first round:

Notice anything? Well, before we get to what I think is sticking out like a sore thumb, this is a good spot to take a look at our first laws of small-sample draft dynamics.

Law #1: Minimums are Pointless

As far as I’m concerned, you can carry this law over to all ADPs, at least, in terms of giving us actionable information. They’re really only useful as peacock feathers for drafting hipsters who’ll use them to crow when things go well, and for the crowd to chortle over when they don’t. Remember, all it takes is just one rogue actor to set a minimum – what does that really (ever) tell us? The flip side, however.

Law #2: Maximums (Can) Be Powerful

It only takes one joker in the deck to set a minimum but a consortium is needed to set maximums; relative to a given draft, that is. In an early draft like this, maximums won’t mean as much, as many will be driven solely by the incomplete roster information we have prior to the free-agent signing season. Increases/decreases in role, changes in hitting/pitching environments, etc, will all dramatically affect draft stocks over the offseason, and maximums set in October could dramatically shift from what they are in February.

However, over a larger, indiscriminate sample, what actionable information you can pull from it becomes muddied. But by honing in on a more select sample (say, ADP for just the Main Event/other high-stakes leagues), maximums can tell a lot, particularly to those not playing in NFBC leagues, and thus not playing against competitors likely to be influenced by the ADP fluctuations there.

I’ve written an article about this before (and will again come Spring) but there is a ton of guidance to be found by comparing Main Event maximums to the ADP of whatever platform your league is using. No, that’s not to say that your league is just going to draft off of ADP but let’s also not be naive about much it will often be informing the choices of your average (or even above-average) fantasy player. They will use it; you know and I know it. Use that to your advantage.

And there certainly are advantages in seeing when multiple drafts involving high-level players choose to pass on a player for a round or two (or three, four, five!) more than what your crowd is likely to. Does that mean you should avoid a player because he’s going much later in the Main Event than where you were considering him? No! You don’t have to assume they’re more right than you and I’m always on Team: go get your guys. But what it should be is a mental flag for further examination, not just noting that the discrepancy exists, but instead asking yourself why 15 elite fantasy players had a chance (or two) to grab a guy where you’d expect but all decided to say “nah”.

Ok, enough laws. Let’s get back to the first big observation from that (first) first round that we all probably felt.

ADP Takeaway #1: First-Round Belfrey

How many bats? So many that I almost expected to find the origin story of a traumatized orphan lying at the bottom of it. The glut of first-round pitchers that have littered drafts for the past couple of years was simply nowhere to be found in the first go of 2023 – Gerrit Cole was the first pitcher off the board at pick #16, with Corbin Burnes following him at #20. Contrast this to the recent past, with two to three starters usually going in the top-10, and five to six often going by pick twenty.

I’m sure pitchers will rise and plenty will be taken in future first rounds but put me in the camp of this being more of a trend than a one-draft fluke, with a couple of factors driving it now, and in the future.

1. 1. A predictable reaction to the offensive environment of the new deadball era. If you believe a similar baseball will be used in 2023 then offense (and power, in particular) will be a more valuable commodity, while starting pitchers will see their value leveled across a usable pool that is again made larger. Imagine if a lake is stocked with more fish, but these fish are more similar in size and also won’t sell for as much as the old fish. Is this where your local fishmonger would be wise to spend their time?
   2. It was a down year for elite starter seasons. The two likely first picks in 2023 (Cole and Burnes) had ho-hum performances, relative to their standards, with Burnes finishing as SP 9 in 12-team leagues according to the FanGraphs auction calculator, and Cole coming in at SP 23. Again, I’m sure they’ll both be taken in the top 10 plenty of times but it’s probably going to be harder for a lot of people to pull a first-round trigger on a pitcher coming off of a “down” year.
   3. Hot new talent has entered the round. There are seriously just a lot of great hitters available in the top 25 (ish) of drafts, as the previous season’s crops of in-prime stars have been joined by exciting youngsters and ascendant talent. See below (mine are underlined):

 

 ADP Takeaway #2: Relievers Go Full-Hansel

They’re just so hot right now. And don’t expect a cooldown. With the continued dilution of the Saves pool, those few with the talent and opportunity to have a realistic path to 30+ Saves were already getting snapped up heavy in 2022. Last year, the common pattern was to see Liam Hendriks and Josh Hader go off super early (20 to 30ish) before seeing a glut from the next tiers get taken between picks 5o and 100 (Raisel Iglesias, Emmanuel Clase, Edwin Díaz, etc).

But if this first draft was any indication of the future (and I think it was) then expect this trend to get even more super-charged.

 
If you’re playing along at home, that’s seven relievers in the first fifty picks, fourteen in the first 100, and twenty-four inside of the first 200. Not only do I expect the early-RP fever to continue but think we should also be aware of just how hot and heavy the runs may happen, and not just early. Plan accordingly.

Okay, okay. That’s two laws, two takeaways, and one Zoolander joke that’s twenty years old. Check, check, double-check.

Let’s finish with the straight dope, taking a look at the first 350 players selected. And because I love you, they come included with 2023 position eligibility. Enjoy and feel free to take it to the comments to trash (or praise?) any (re: mine) picks.