2021 Roster Review: San Diego Padres

by
November 9, 2021

79-83 (3rd in Division; 17th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 36 (23rd)

RP Wins: 22 (30th)

Saves: 43 (7th)

1+ Save: 5 (Mark Melancon 39, Ryan Weathers, Craig Stammen, Tim Hill, Miguel Diaz 1)

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100+ Ks: 3 (Joe Musgrove 203, Yu Darvish 199, Blake Snell 170)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 4 (Fernando Tatis Jr. .282, Manny Machado .278, Eric Hosmer .269, Jake Cronenworth .266)

65+ Runs: 4 (Tatis Jr. 99, Cronenworth 94, Machado 92, Tommy Pham 74)

65+ RBI: 4 (Machado 106, Tatis Jr. 97, Cronenworth 71, Hosmer 65)

10+ HRs: 7 (Tatis Jr. 42, Machado 28, Cronenworth 21, Wil Myers 17, Pham, Trent Grisham 15, Hosmer 12)

5+ SBs: 10 (Tatis Jr. 25, Pham 14, Grisham 13, Machado 12, Jurickson Profar 10, Myers 8, Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 6, Hosmer, Jorge Mateo [total: 10], Adam Frazier 5)

BEST BUY: Trent Grisham

Grisham was having a brilliant season through June, pacing toward a 30 HR/20 SB campaign, but had a brutal summer with just 5 HR and 6 SB (in 10 tries) from July 1st on (308 PA). He suffered a pair of injuries early in the year (hamstring, heel), though I’m unsure how much they factored in considering he did his best work in the first half. The 25-year-old has solid plate skills, power, speed, and a guaranteed role. The rough second half will drop his price and I’m going to pounce. He still has the 30/20 upside and should give us at least a 20/15 season as long as he plays 140 games.

ON THE RISE: Jake Cronenworth

Cronenworth retained triple eligibility, qualifying at 1B, 2B, and SS heading into 2022 and I don’t think we have seen his best effort yet. He finished 14th, 14th, and 16th at the positions, respectively, with a .266 AVG, 21 HR, 71 RBI, 94 R, and 4 SB in 643 PA. Excellent plate skills (14% K, 9% BB), above average pop (.194 ISO) and elite speed (86th percentile sprint speed, 15th highest home-to-1B) could deliver an even better season, especially if he runs more.

OFF THE RADAR: Mike Clevinger

Clevinger will definitely start pushing up lists as the winter progresses, but for now he is a bit overlooked as often happens to those who miss the entire previous season. We are nearing the 1-year mark on his Tommy John surgery so he should be fully healthy come Spring Training. I doubt he is pushed for 30 starts, but 22-25 of strong ratios and elite strikeout totals is worth the price.

HOT TAKE: Dinelson Lamet notches 25 SVs.

Lamet spent September in the bullpen with mixed success, highlighted by a 32% K rate, but counterbalanced by an 18% BB rate and 6.39 ERA in the 12.7 IP of work. He allowed 4 ER and walked 3 in a third of an inning to close the season, tarnishing those September numbers quite a bit, but it doesn’t count any less just because it was his last outing of the year.

The Padres have a legitimate five without Lamet – Musgrove-Darvish-Snell-Clevinger-Paddack – so he might finally be locked into the bullpen, and a late-inning role is perfect for him. Without a third pitch, I just don’t see how he can be a 25+ start arm and now with Mark Melancon a free agent, the closer’s role is open. Lamet has the skills to excel in the role.

ICYMI: Blake Snell closed with a 1.83 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, and 31% K-BB in 44.3 IP, taking his ERA from 5.44 to 4.20 before an adductor injury ended his season in mid-September. His price will be down in 2022 and there is still a ton of talent in that left arm.

IF THE DH RETURNS: It would likely be used as a rotating half day off for their stars while also giving Austin Nola an avenue for some extra playing time, particularly if Luis Campusano takes over the lead catching role.





 

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Bill
4 years ago

Nice work, I enjoyed the format.

4