2021 Roster Review: New York Mets

77-85 (3rd in Division; 18th in MLB)

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SP Wins: 32 (26th)

RP Wins: 45 (5th)

Saves: 41 (13th)

1+ Save: 6 (Edwin Díaz 32, Trevor May 4, Jacob Barnes 2, Jeury Familia, Seth Lugo, Heath Hembree 1)

100+ Ks: 3 (Marcus Stroman 158, Taijuan Walker, Jacob deGrom 146)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Brandon Nimmo .292, Pete Alonso .262)

65+ Runs: 2 (Alonso 81, Francisco Lindor 73)

65+ RBI: 1 (Alonso 94)

10+ HRs: 7 (Alonso 37, Lindor 20, Jonathan Villar 18, Kevin Pillar 15, Michael Conforto 14, Dominic Smith 11, James McCann 10, Javier Báez 9 w/NYM [total: 22])

5+ SBs: 4 (Villar 14, Lindor 10, Nimmo, Báez 5 w/NYM [total: 18])

BEST BUY: Pete Alonso

Alonso is a steady premium power source. His rookie year will probably be the high-water mark of his career (.260-53-120), but he is a bankable 30 HR/90 RBI for 2022 and among a small handful of guys who you could reasonably project for 40 HR. He is almost boring at this point, but there is nothing wrong with boring, quality production.

ON THE RISE: Mark Vientos

Vientos had an excellent dual-level season, smacking 25 HR in 349 PA across Double- and Triple-A (mostly, Double-A with 306 PA there) and has a great shot to make the majors at some point in 2022. He seems like a younger J.D. Davis (he will be 22 next year), featuring excellent pop that desperately needs an NL DH. The good news is I think he (and Davis/Dom Smith) will get it in 2022 and beyond as the NL hopefully adopts it for good.

OFF THE RADAR: Jeff McNeil

This is a relative “Off the Radar” pick because obviously McNeil isn’t completely forgotten, but he certainly won’t be a Top 100 pick again. He was given a pass for his power outage in 2020 (-72 pts of ISO from 2019 to .142) likely due to his .998 OPS and 4 HR September after a .681 OPS and 0 HR over his first 28 games.

Turns out that 2020 was a harbinger of things to come as his power fell further, down to just a .109 ISO. The AVG plummeted, too (.249 AVG/.276 BABIP), and that’s the part I don’t quite buy and why I’m willing to buy low. I’d put his power projection somewhere in the mid-teens if he stays healthy, but he still feels like a solid bet for a .300+ AVG. Finding quality AVG after pick-200 is rare so the dual-eligible (2B/OF) McNeil could be a sharp late-rounder to supplement a key category.

HOT TAKE: Dominic Smith hits 30 HR.

Smith was horrendous in 2021. He had just an 86 wRC+ and 11 HR in 493 PA coming off a pair of 177 AB gems (134 wRC+ in 2019, 166 in 2020) and I don’t really have any answers for why he was so poor. He pulled the ball a lot less (-7 pts to 37%), but that doesn’t come close to explaining the downfall. His HR/FB plummeting from 22% to 9% certainly stings, but again, it only explains some of it.

The simple fact is that I’m willing to bet on his .236 ISO from 2017-20 over the .119 from 2021 and his bargain bin price gives the pick built-in protection in case he flops again as you won’t be inclined to hang on as long as we did this past season.

ICYMI: They had ONE player over 65 RBIs! You may have glossed over it in the stat breakdown, but that’s horrible. Heck, the Rangers and Orioles each had three. Injuries are the main culprit, but I was just stunned to see that.

IF THE DH RETURNS: They have several options here with Pete Alonso, J.D. Davis, and Dominic Smith. That’s why their defense was so rough. Their best bet would be to put Alonso there, Smith at 1B, and then move on from Davis once they think Vientos can take over.