2021 Pod vs Steamer — SB Upside, A Review

Today, I continue my Pod Projections vs Steamer battle reviews, this time moving along to stolen bases. Similarly to the way I compared our home run forecasts, I calculated a PA/SB rate first and then extrapolated that projection over 650 plate appearances, so we’re only comparing stolen base projections and playing time forecasts don’t factor in. We’ll start with the stolen base upside guys. For some context, the league stole the fewer bases per 650 plate appearances since…1971! So hitting on the upside guys is going to be a lot tougher than hitting the downside guys.

The sample size was only five and only one hitter recorded more than 350 plate appearances. But hey, even with the difficulty of picking upside guys in a down SB environment, my projections were closer on three hitters, versus two for Steamer. Meaningless, sure, but after some really bad predictions this season, I’ll take every victory lap I’m entitled to!

Jarrod Dyson always appears at the top of my SB upside list as Steamer annually projects aging effects to finally slow down the elder statesman, but it still hasn’t happened yet. Even with a putrid .260 OBP, he actually slightly beat my more optimistic SB projection, but with just 27 combined RBI+R, zero homers, and a .207 average, it’s possible his steals were contributing to exactly two fantasy teams around the world.

Wow, Bradley Zimmer just recorded the highest PA total of his career! It’s crazy to think he debuted back in 2017 and his 348 PAs this season represent a career high. Zimmer blew both our projections out of the water, but he was a solid deep league contributor while playing, and was especially valuable in OBP leagues. There’s certainly intrigue here, but health will always be a question mark, and he needs to get those strikeouts under control given his underwhelming power.

It was difficult to project Tim Locastro’s stolen base prowess, who had just 347 plate appearances heading into the season, but it’s clear why he gave Steamer the first win on the table. His BABIP plummeted to just .219, bringing his OBP down to an ugly .263. Not getting on base means not getting the opportunity to swipe second. He still managed to pace for nearly 21 steals though, but his showing this year means he’s unlikely to see much of a role in the future.

Andres Gimenez opened the season as the Indians’ starting shortstop, but a microscopic .233 wOBA got him demoted to Triple-A. Even with a .226 OBP, he still managed to steal four bases in just 85 PAs before that demotion. He was better when he eventually returned to the Majors and stole another seven bases, pushing his 650 PA stolen base pace just above where I projected him, even with an OBP significantly below what he posted with the Mets during his 2020 debut. There are flaws here, but he’s got power/speed potential.

The good with Myles Straw is he managed to hold a starting job all season that resulted in 638 PAs. That’s far more than I think anyone truly believed he would earn. The bad is that his stolen base pace was a bit below what we expected. That was even after posting a solid .349 OBP. He only got caught six times, so ineffectiveness wasn’t the reason. Now in Cleveland, playing time is more secure, but he’ll need to continue getting on base at a similar clip to make up for his complete lack of power in order to stay in the lineup every day.