2021 Bold Hitter League Leaders – A Review

Yesterday’s bold prediction review was slightly embarrassing, but hey, if I got too many right, I may have been accused of not being bold enough! Those are hard enough, but my bold league leaders are even more difficult. Striking the right balance between realistic, but unexpected for a singular league leader is a challenge. Let’s see how I did on the hitter side.

American League

Batting Average – David Fletcher

Obviously Fletcher posts a career worst .262 batting average when I boldly predict he leads the AL in the metric. It wasn’t due to a surging strikeout rate. In fact, his strikeout rate was the best of his career. Instead, it was due to a career worst .287 BABIP, the first time that mark has slipped below .307. He continues to post a weird batted ball profile with a strong LD%, a groundball tilt, but a high pop-up rate. You don’t see that combination very often. Luckily for his fantasy owners, he offset some of his disappointing numbers with a career best 15 steals.

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Home Runs – Eddie Rosario

I was quite confident that Rosario would enjoy a big home run year after his move to a more friendly home venue. Instead, he stunk it up with the Indians, got hurt, and was then essentially given away in a trade with the Braves. Oddly, his power then took off in Atlanta and looked more like I expected while still with the Indians. He finished with just 14 homers. I think he’ll be a nice rebound candidate next year.

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RBI – Xander Bogaerts

You wouldn’t necessarily have considered Bogaerts a bold bet to lead the AL in RBI, but he was projected to finish in a tie for 11th, so that certainly qualifies for my list. He ended up finishing with just 79 RBI, despite hitting third or fourth all season long. He missed some time to injury though, which obviously cut into his RBI total. His ISO and HR/FB rate also fell to their lowest marks since 2017, so hitting for less power likely cost him a bunch of RBI as well.

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Runs – Whit Merrifield

It’s very hard to lead the league in runs scored without big power, as all those home runs are automatic runs scored. Merrifield only hit 10 of those long balls, but still ranked in a tie for 11th with 97 runs scored, his second highest career total. One of the major factors hampering his runs scored total was a career worst .317 OBP. With fewer homers per plate appearances and less times on base, he failed to break the 100 runs scored barrier.

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Stolen Bases – Nick Madrigal

It wouldn’t be a bold predictions post if I didn’t pick a player who miss a significant chunk of time due to injury. Madrigal made it just 215 plate appearances before his season was cut short and then eventually got traded to the Cubs. Not only did missing time cost him a chance at leading in a stat category, but he was embarrassingly bad at that stat category while actually on the field. Madrigal stole just one base this season. He has now swiped just three over about a half season’s worth of plate appearances, for a pace of six. This is from a guy who stole a combined 35 bases in the minors in 2019.

It hasn’t been a lack of on base ability reducing his stolen base opportunities either. He holds a strong .358 OBP in the Majors and yet he still has only attempted six steals. At least we can count on him for batting average, but without any power, his fantasy value will still come down to whether he’s more willing to steal bases on the North side of Chicago than he was on the South side.

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National League

Batting Average – Christian Yelich

I figured Yelich was due for a big rebound off his disappointing 2020 season. Instead, his wOBA fell even further to a career worst mark, though that was primarily driven by a sudden lack of power. That lack of power, combined with only a partial strikeout rate rebound and the second worst BABIP of his career, meant that he hit just .248. I’m excited to see how much his price falls next year as he should come the cheapest in years.

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Home Runs – C.J. Cron

Cron did benefit from the Coors Field boost as he posted a fantastic 25.3% HR/FB rate. Unfortunately, he was so much worse in away parks (12% HR/FB rate) that his overall HR/FB rate failed to increase from previous seasons and let to just 28 homers, a far cry from Fernando Tatis Jr.’s league leading 42 dingers. That’s the challenge for Rockies hitters, as playing at Coors typically causes worse road performances. However, the Coors boost is usually more than enough to offset that away park decline. Everything else looked good here, but Cron is now a free agent so his fantasy value will heavily depend on whether the Rockies resign him.

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RBI – Keston Hiura

LOL, I can’t decide which is worse, this one or the Madrigal stolen base one above. Hiura finished with just 19 RBI as the strikeouts were just too frequent and he eventually found himself in Triple-A. He still couldn’t get his strikeout rate below 30% in the minors, so you now have to question what his future looks like after a thrilling 2019 debut. Since he’s been poor defensively at second base, first base or DH on an AL team might be his best bet. But the offensive bar is much higher there.

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Runs – Trent Grisham

Grisham battled injuries here and there and took a seat against some lefties, plus his OBP dipped well below his 2020 level. Finally, while he spent the most time at leadoff, he actually recorded a plate appearance in every single batting slot except fourth. All those PAs at the bottom of the order cut into his runs scored opportunities. He finished with just 61 runs scored and was a bit of a disappointment for fantasy owners after a strong 2020 that put him on more than a 20/20 pace.

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Stolen Bases – Victor Robles

What a way to end this bold prediction review, with another hitter who hit his way back to the minors. It’s pretty sad that in my 12-team mixed league, I won both Hiura and Robles at auction for prices I thought were bargains. Robles’ power has disappeared and his BABIP fell to a career low, all leading to an ugly .274 wOBA, just a point better than last year. Surprisingly, he did that despite a career best walk rate and a rebound in strikeout rate after last year’s spike.

He swiped just eight bases, putting him on a full season pace that fell far short of his 28 steals in 2019. At age 24, it’s far too early to give up on him, but it’ll be interesting to see how the Nationals view him heading into the 2022 season.

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