2020 Top 101 Prospects for Roto Leagues (Early)

by Trey Baughn

December 4, 2019

Prospect season is around the corner, and while various rankings, reports, and even trades will continue to influence the ebb and flow of prospect opinions, it’s helpful to lay the groundwork for establishing this year’s fantasy prospect values as early as possible. The list below represents a very early look at the top 101 prospects in the game for fantasy leagues tailored specifically towards traditional rotisserie scoring (where AVG, ERA, and SB are better indicators than OPS, FIP, and wOBA.). For example, this list could be a resource for evaluating the value of prospects in Ottoneu Old School 5 x 5 leagues. The top 101 prospects for sabermetrics leagues is here.

Years ago I introduced the Scorecard system, my custom prospect ranking process, and I’ve continued to use this method for scoring and ranking this crop of 2020 prospects. In ranking these prospects I take into account the following factors:

Scouting

“Scouting” is everything that goes into evaluating the true talent of an MLB prospect. Age, ability, stats, rankings, “makeup”, and scouting reports all play a role here. It’s the input of information that causes you to ask about the player’s ceiling, their floor, and what might be realistic in between. What are the risks, and how serious are they? Is this prospect regarded more for their defensive talents than offensive? What MLB players might they compare to? What is their future value expectation and how likely are they to reach it?

Taylor Trammell scouts like a tremendously athletic player, but scouting alone hasn’t yet materialized into an elite on-field player, so there are other elements to consider when ranking him among the other top prospects in the game in this context.

Scoring

“Scoring” is honestly assessing whether the prospect’s skills and talents effectively translate to the specific scoring format of your fantasy league. It seems obvious, but I continually see fantasy owners fail to make this connection in the way they draft and value their prospects each season. While Andrew Vaughn might be a top pick in sabermetic leagues, his value needs to be reassessed in the context of 5 x 5 leagues, for example. In order to be more successful in building our dynasty rosters, we need to always project value within the context of our specific league, which is what this rating is designed to consider.

Impact

“Impact” is more than just estimating a reasonable MLB ETA for your prospect. While isolating a realistic debut is helpful, it is far more important to give some thought as to when your prospect may actually contribute (in a significant way) to your team within the context of your fantasy format. Is it realistic to expect this prospect to need a significant MLB adjustment period? Will they play full time? Do you expect this prospect to be an above-replacement level contributor during the season in which your roster is built to compete? If not, you might be better served trading them away for MLB players that are already near peak performance. “Will this prospect truly improve my team when I need them most?” That’s what we’re getting at when rating “impact”, and players with a skill set that should allow them to succeed or adapt to MLB more quickly get a boost here.

Due to at least some level of MLB success and a clear rotation opportunity, Jesus Luzardo and Michael Kopech get a small boost here. Due to his recent long-term contract, Evan White also receives a bump, since it’s expected he will get a longer leash to make adjustments that many other prospects during their debut.

Hype

“Hype” is a measure of perceived prospect value within the industry (usually in the form of rankings or press) and especially within your own league. It has to do with the trend of a prospect’s value over time. Is it growing, like Julio Rodriguez, or is it waning after injury or a “disappointing” debut like Mitch Keller? The careers of these young players could go in any direction at this point, but perceived value is just as important as real fantasy contribution value. “Hype” is an attempt to measure the demand for this prospect within your league, which usually takes the form of constant trade interest, particularly in dynasty leagues.

Being part of a large, live online baseball community like Ottoneu (where we have a dedicated Slack channel just to talk prospects, for example) gives me the advantage of “reading the crowd” more than most leagues. Brendan Rodgers is an example of another prospect the crowds seem to be backing away from this year, at least in terms of fantasy expectations.

Cost

“Cost” is the price at which a player is owned, both in the present and the future, and it can never be overlooked. Cost is always a variable in fantasy prospect valuation. Always.

In keeper leagues, cost is usually a function of the draft round required to keep a player, or in auction leagues like Ottoneu, the salary at which you own the player for future seasons given a salary budget. Again, perception is reality within your league, as there may be a substantially different reaction (demand) to an $8 Adley Rutschman compared to a $3 Adley Rutschman. For these specific rankings below, I’ve assumed cost is neutral across all prospects, but would encourage you to always consider cost when calculating your own values.

Again, these rankings below are early, and they are specific to fantasy leagues that lean towards sabermetric scoring systems. Fantasy prospect rankings are fluid, so some of these rankings will shift over the next few months as more information and analysis becomes available.

Special thanks to the FanGraphs prospect team for all their hard work producing exceptional prospect content, including The Board, which now makes some of this research a lot easier.

2020 Top 101 Prospects (Roto)

Rank	Player	Team	POS	Age	FV
1	Luis Robert	CHW	CF	22.2	55
2	Wander Franco	TBR	SS	18.7	70
3	Jo Adell	LAA	RF	20.6	65
4	Gavin Lux	LAD	2B	21.9	60
5	Jesus Luzardo	OAK	LHP	22.1	55
6	Michael Kopech	CHW	RHP	23.5	55
7	MacKenzie Gore	SDP	LHP	20.7	60
8	Julio Rodriguez	SEA	RF	18.8	50
9	Cristian Pache	ATL	CF	21.0	60
10	Kristian Robinson	ARI	CF	18.9	55
11	Carter Kieboom	WSN	SS	22.2	60
12	Matt Manning	DET	RHP	21.8	55
13	Forrest Whitley	HOU	RHP	22.1	60
14	Royce Lewis	MIN	SS	20.4	65
15	Dylan Carlson	STL	LF	21.0	50
16	Casey Mize	DET	RHP	22.5	60
17	Alex Kirilloff	MIN	RF	22.0	50
18	Andrew Vaughn	CHW	1B	21.6	50
19	Jarred Kelenic	SEA	CF	20.3	55
20	Marco Luciano	SFG	SS	18.1	55
21	CJ Abrams	SDP	CF	19.1	50
22	Adley Rutschman	BAL	C	21.7	60
23	A.J. Puk	OAK	LHP	24.5	55
24	Nate Pearson	TOR	RHP	23.2	55
25	Dustin May	LAD	RHP	22.2	60
26	Bobby Witt Jr.	KCR	SS	19.4	55
27	Alec Bohm	PHI	3B	23.2	50
28	Jordan Groshans	TOR	3B	20.0	50
29	Nick Solak	TEX	2B	24.8	50
30	Taylor Trammell	SDP	LF	22.1	55
31	Heliot Ramos	SFG	RF	20.2	50
32	Brennen Davis	CHC	CF	20.0	45
33	Daulton Varsho	ARI	C	23.3	50
34	Alek Thomas	ARI	CF	19.5	50
35	Evan White	SEA	1B	23.5	50
36	Corbin Carroll	ARI	CF	18.8	50
37	Drew Waters	ATL	CF	20.8	55
38	Riley Greene	DET	RF	19.1	50
39	Trevor Larnach	MIN	RF	22.7	50
40	Vidal Brujan	TBR	2B	21.7	55
41	Brendan Rodgers	COL	SS	23.2	55
42	Ian Anderson	ATL	RHP	21.5	55
43	Brusdar Graterol	MIN	RHP	21.2	50
44	Spencer Howard	PHI	RHP	23.3	50
45	JJ Bleday	MIA	RF	22.0	50
46	Jordyn Adams	LAA	CF	20.0	45
47	Tarik Skubal	DET	LHP	22.9	45
48	Luis Patino	SDP	RHP	20.0	55
49	Brendan McKay	TBR	LHP	23.9	60
50	Nick Madrigal	CHW	2B	22.6	55
51	Sixto Sanchez	MIA	RHP	21.3	55
52	Logan Gilbert	SEA	RHP	22.5	50
53	Jazz Chisholm	MIA	SS	21.8	55
54	Hunter Bishop	SFG	CF	21.4	45
55	Nolan Gorman	STL	3B	19.5	55
56	Jasson Dominguez	NYY	CF	16.4	50
57	Joey Bart	SFG	C	22.9	55
58	Jeter Downs	LAD	2B	21.3	50
59	Daniel Lynch	KCR	LHP	23.0	45
60	Sean Murphy	OAK	C	25.1	55
61	Isaac Paredes	DET	3B	20.7	50
62	Jorge Mateo	OAK	CF	24.4	45
63	Brady Singer	KCR	RHP	23.2	45
64	Travis Swaggerty	PIT	CF	22.2	50
65	Hunter Green e	CIN	RHP	20.2	50
66	Yusniel Diaz	BAL	RF	23.1	50
67	Oneil Cruz	PIT	CF	21.1	55
68	Jonathan India	CIN	3B	22.9	50
69	Ke’Bryan Hayes	PIT	3B	22.8	60
70	Josiah Gray	LAD	RHP	21.9	50
71	George Valera	CLE	CF	19.0	50
72	Nico Hoerner	CHC	2B	22.5	50
73	Xavier Edwards	SDP	2B	20.2	50
74	Deivi Garcia	NYY	RHP	20.5	50
75	James Karinchak	CLE	RHP	24.1	40
76	Daniel Johnson	CLE	CF	24.3	45
77	Jordan Balazovic	MIN	RHP	21.1	45
78	Liover Peguero	ARI	SS	18.8	45
79	Tyler Freeman	CLE	SS	20.4	45
80	Jackson Kowar	KCR	RHP	23.1	45
81	Geraldo Perdomo	ARI	SS	20.0	50
82	Noelvi Marte	SEA	SS	18.0	40
83	Ronny Mauricio	NYM	SS	18.6	55
84	George Kirby	SEA	RHP	21.7	45
85	Matthew Liberatore	TBR	LHP	20.0	50
86	Keibert Ruiz	LAD	C	21.3	60
87	Gilberto Jimenez	BOS	CF	19.3	40
88	Edward Cabrera	MIA	RHP	21.6	50
89	Brandon Marsh	LAA	CF	21.9	50
90	Luis Garcia	WSN	SS	19.5	50
91	Greg Jones	TBR	SS	21.7	45
92	Luis Campusano	SDP	C	21.1	50
93	Jeremiah Jackson	LAA	3B	19.6	45
94	Nolan Jones	CLE	3B	21.5	50
95	Jose Garcia	CIN	SS	21.6	45
96	Brice Turang	MIL	SS	19.9	50
97	Leody Taveras	TEX	CF	21.1	45
98	Aaron Bracho	CLE	LF	18.5	40
99	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL	RHP	20.0	50
100	Triston Casas	BOS	1B	19.8	50
101	Kyle Wright	ATL	RHP	24.1	50

An early ranking of the top 101 fantasy prospects for 2020 in traditional rotisserie leagues.

If you have questions about specific prospects, feel free to discuss in the comments.

The top 101 prospects for sabermetrics leagues is here.