2019 xADP, New and Improved

About a month ago, I published a post that predicted 2019 ADP (“xADP”) values using eight years’ worth of average draft position (ADP) data from the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) and end-of-season (EOS) values from Razzball. The model was pretty good — it explained nearly 60 percent of the data’s variance (adjusted r2 = 0.59), which is pretty dang good. It felt unfulfilled, though; it accounted for some players but not others — namely, breakout rookies who were completely off the radar the previous season and top prospects who had yet to debut.

I took some time (really, a lot of time) to clean up my data to see how much it would improve my model, if at all:

  1. Originally, my data set did not account for players who were not drafted (aka had no ADP value) but made an impact in 2018 (think Juan Soto). Conversely, my data did account for players who were drafted but made no impact in 2018 (think, uh, Troy Tulowitzki, I guess). It was kind of like addressing a Type I error but ignoring a Type II error (or the other way around? I don’t know). I took painstaking care to fill in these holes.
  2. I took equally painstaking care to ensure all player names were consistent — no “Nick Castellanos”/”Nicholas Castellanos” mismatches that might pollute the analysis. Odds are, there are a couple of players I missed, but having spent hours poring over the data, I feel confident that the issue is no longer pervasive.
  3. I added ages! They make a small impact, most meaningful to players at the extremes, such as the very young (think Ronald Acuna) and the very old (think Nelson Cruz).
  4. Lastly, a theoretical and methodological adjustment: I forced negative ADP values to $0. I wanted the model to reflect an actual draft, in which players are never bought at auction for negative dollars — rather, their values converge on zero. It’s important to note here that a player can still end the season with negative value based on the concept of replacement level. Accordingly, only negative ADP values, and not negative EOS values, were forced zero.

Fortunately, the extra work was worth it: the model boasts an adjusted r2 of 0.75 (with ages; 0.73 without). That’s a massive improvement, and it can be attributed almost entirely to the slight (but profound) change in the model specification.

The model still has its shortcomings. It doesn’t know who the top prospects are, who won and lost the closer role last year, or which seasons were shortened by injury or delayed call-ups. The most notable discrepancies will be among players who fit the latter-most category (shortened season by delayed call-up); Acuna and Ozzie Albies rank 35th and 41st, respectively, which is probably a bit low but not obscenely so. On the other hand, Walker Buehler and Adalberto Mondesi are ranked 165th and 187th, and I’ll bet the house that they each go at least 100 picks earlier.

Without further ado, here’s an updated top 500. I’ll probably rely on it gently during these early NFBC Draft Champions and Fantrax best ball drafts as well as while navigating offseason ottoneu trades. The table is sortable — just click the column headers. Go crazy!

2019 xADP – Updated
First Last xADP w/ age xADP w/o age
Mike Trout 1 1
Mookie Betts 2 2
Trea Turner 3 3
Nolan Arenado 4 4
Jose Altuve 5 5
Manny Machado 6 6
Francisco Lindor 7 9
Jose Ramirez 8 10
Bryce Harper 9 8
Christian Yelich 10 12
J.D. Martinez 11 7
Paul Goldschmidt 12 13
Max Scherzer 13 11
Giancarlo Stanton 14 15
Clayton Kershaw 15 14
Charlie Blackmon 16 17
Chris Sale 17 18
Alex Bregman 18 20
Freddie Freeman 19 16
Corey Kluber 20 19
Jacob deGrom 21 22
Justin Verlander 22 21
Andrew Benintendi 23 26
Trevor Story 24 27
Starling Marte 25 23
Cody Bellinger 26 32
Luis Severino 27 30
Noah Syndergaard 28 24
Javier Baez 29 29
Rhys Hoskins 30 25
Carlos Correa 31 31
Anthony Rizzo 32 28
Aaron Nola 33 33
Edwin Diaz 34 36
Ronald Acuna 35 44
George Springer 36 37
Kris Bryant 37 39
Craig Kimbrel 38 35
Khris Davis 39 38
Carlos Carrasco 40 34
Ozzie Albies 41 48
Aaron Judge 42 47
Gary Sanchez 43 45
Gerrit Cole 44 40
Whit Merrifield 45 42
Anthony Rendon 46 43
Blake Treinen 47 41
Xander Bogaerts 48 51
Stephen Strasburg 49 46
Joey Votto 50 49
Kenley Jansen 51 50
Jean Segura 52 53
Blake Snell 53 58
Tommy Pham 54 55
Felipe Vazquez 55 57
Nicholas Castellanos 56 60
Zack Greinke 57 52
Shohei Ohtani 58 63
Edwin Encarnacion 59 54
Justin Upton 60 62
Aroldis Chapman 61 56
Dee Gordon 62 61
Marcell Ozuna 63 69
Madison Bumgarner 64 59
Brian Dozier 65 66
Lorenzo Cain 66 64
Jose Abreu 67 68
Joey Gallo 68 80
Matt Olson 69 74
Nelson Cruz 70 67
Didi Gregorius 71 73
J.T. Realmuto 72 76
Ian Desmond 73 65
Willson Contreras 74 77
A.J. Pollock 75 70
James Paxton 76 72
Carlos Martinez 77 79
Gregory Polanco 78 75
Robbie Ray 79 85
Trevor Bauer 80 83
David Price 81 71
Travis Shaw 82 84
Rafael Devers 83 101
Eddie Rosario 84 89
Mitch Haniger 85 86
Jose Berrios 86 98
Eugenio Suarez 87 91
Jose Quintana 88 82
Luis Castillo 89 88
Yoan Moncada 90 93
Rougned Odor 91 105
Matt Carpenter 92 81
Corey Knebel 93 103
Salvador Perez 94 96
Josh Donaldson 95 78
Brad Hand 96 95
Raisel Iglesias 97 94
Chris Archer 98 87
Jose Peraza 99 112
Kyle Hendricks 100 97
Masahiro Tanaka 101 92
Billy Hamilton 102 107
Ender Inciarte 103 111
Chris Taylor 104 109
Andrew McCutchen 105 99
Wade Davis 106 90
Roberto Osuna 107 127
Dallas Keuchel 108 102
Yasiel Puig 109 114
Buster Posey 110 100
Corey Seager 111 125
Miguel Andujar 112 129
Scooter Gennett 113 121
Lance McCullers Jr. 114 130
Michael Brantley 115 106
Yu Darvish 116 104
Eric Hosmer 117 122
Jameson Taillon 118 119
Jonathan Schoop 119 132
Sean Doolittle 120 110
Cody Allen 121 117
Tim Anderson 122 136
Jon Lester 123 108
Miles Mikolas 124 113
Wil Myers 125 128
Mike Moustakas 126 123
Aaron Hicks 127 124
Jonathan Villar 128 126
Byron Buxton 129 137
Evan Gattis 130 115
Wilson Ramos 131 116
Amed Rosario 132 147
Matt Chapman 133 135
Jeurys Familia 134 120
Nomar Mazara 135 157
Mike Clevinger 136 139
DJ LeMahieu 137 134
Stephen Piscotty 138 133
Ryan Braun 139 118
Michael Conforto 140 152
Patrick Corbin 141 142
Josh Hader 142 159
Charlie Morton 143 131
Marcus Semien 144 143
Jesus Aguilar 145 140
Kyle Schwarber 146 153
Juan Soto 147 189
Luke Weaver 148 155
David Peralta 149 138
Gleyber Torres 150 175
Paul DeJong 151 162
Ian Happ 152 168
Ken Giles 153 149
Mallex Smith 154 154
Zack Godley 155 148
Manuel Margot 156 172
Jake Arrieta 157 141
Yadier Molina 158 145
Alex Wood 159 165
Yasmani Grandal 160 158
Justin Turner 161 146
Rich Hill 162 144
Alex Colome 163 161
Mike Foltynewicz 164 174
Walker Buehler 165 184
Adam Eaton 166 150
Trey Mancini 167 180
Max Muncy 168 166
Robinson Cano 169 151
Odubel Herrera 170 179
Rick Porcello 171 167
J.A. Happ 172 156
Elvis Andrus 173 182
Cesar Hernandez 174 178
Carlos Santana 175 163
Jose Martinez 176 169
Jack Flaherty 177 206
Jon Gray 178 186
Adam Jones 179 164
Jurickson Profar 180 185
Kyle Seager 181 173
German Marquez 182 215
Marwin Gonzalez 183 183
Yoenis Cespedes 184 160
Andrelton Simmons 185 190
Sean Manaea 186 195
Adalberto Mondesi 187 218
Daniel Murphy 188 177
Josh Bell 189 211
Arodys Vizcaino 190 191
Garrett Richards 191 176
Jason Kipnis 192 171
Sonny Gray 193 192
Justin Smoak 194 188
Kevin Gausman 195 199
Julio Teheran 196 203
Jeremy Jeffress 197 187
Kyle Freeland 198 223
Maikel Franco 199 219
Jorge Alfaro 200 209
Miguel Sano 201 222
Miguel Cabrera 202 170
Shane Greene 203 200
Mike Zunino 204 212
Chase Anderson 205 204
Eduardo Nunez 206 198
Kenta Maeda 207 205
Adrian Beltre 208 181
Ryan Yarbrough 209 213
Ketel Marte 210 232
David Dahl 211 224
Sean Newcomb 212 233
Brett Gardner 213 202
Johan Camargo 214 236
Yuli Gurriel 215 197
Corey Dickerson 216 216
Randal Grichuk 217 231
Johnny Cueto 218 193
Eduardo Rodriguez 219 245
Archie Bradley 220 238
Brian Anderson 221 229
Jackie Bradley Jr. 222 220
Ian Kinsler 223 194
Zack Wheeler 224 217
Matt Kemp 225 201
C.J. Cron 226 221
Jaime Barria 227 285
Brandon Morrow 228 196
Aaron Sanchez 229 235
Brandon Nimmo 230 240
Joey Wendle 231 214
Greg Bird 232 230
Michael Wacha 233 246
Carlos Gonzalez 234 208
Delino DeShields 235 252
Ryon Healy 236 251
Kelvin Herrera 237 226
Jeimer Candelario 238 254
Robinson Chirinos 239 207
Cole Hamels 240 210
Yonder Alonso 241 225
Domingo Santana 242 278
Scott Kingery 243 256
Dylan Bundy 244 269
Hector Neris 245 234
Brad Keller 246 295
Daniel Palka 247 244
Marco Gonzales 248 250
Starlin Castro 249 249
Max Kepler 250 274
Hunter Renfroe 251 260
Teoscar Hernandez 252 259
Keone Kela 253 275
Seranthony Dominguez 254 293
Kevin Kiermaier 255 243
Michael Fulmer 256 282
Trevor Williams 257 273
Nick Markakis 258 228
Shin-Soo Choo 259 237
Gio Gonzalez 260 247
Austin Hedges 261 289
Eduardo Escobar 262 258
Harrison Bader 263 287
Shane Bieber 264 311
Jonathan Lucroy 265 227
Freddy Peralta 266 330
Asdrubal Cabrera 267 239
Jose Leclerc 268 312
Orlando Arcia 269 327
Jed Lowrie 270 241
Lucas Giolito 271 326
Jhoulys Chacin 272 263
Steven Matz 273 261
Justin Bour 274 257
Marcus Stroman 275 283
Joc Pederson 276 276
Kevin Pillar 277 264
Caleb Ferguson 278 372
Niko Goodrum 279 272
Zach Eflin 280 316
Brad Boxberger 281 253
Lou Trivino 282 279
Andrew Heaney 283 277
Chad Green 284 303
Kike Hernandez 285 288
Adam Ottavino 286 242
Danny Duffy 287 266
Addison Russell 288 319
Joey Lucchesi 289 305
Dereck Rodriguez 290 290
Jacob Faria 291 343
Dellin Betances 292 268
Michael A. Taylor 293 307
Avisail Garcia 294 323
Nick Williams 295 344
A.J. Minter 296 340
Reynaldo Lopez 297 345
Mike Minor 298 280
Hyun-Jin Ryu 299 265
Tanner Roark 300 267
Fernando Rodney 301 255
Vince Velasquez 302 314
Matt Duffy 303 284
Luiz Gohara 304 419
Jake Odorizzi 305 304
Anibal Sanchez 306 248
Matthew Boyd 307 308
Evan Longoria 308 270
Bradley Zimmer 309 325
Jesse Winker 310 341
Ross Stripling 311 309
Diego Castillo 312 349
Nathan Eovaldi 313 281
Lewis Brinson 314 335
Scott Schebler 315 328
Dansby Swanson 316 359
Joe Musgrove 317 353
Colin Moran 318 329
Tyler Glasnow 319 350
Jake Junis 320 360
Tucker Barnhart 321 324
Aledmys Diaz 322 310
Adam Duvall 323 317
Ronald Guzman 324 378
Mike Soroka 325 492
Willy Adames 326 402
Nick Ahmed 327 297
Clay Buchholz 328 262
Kirby Yates 329 291
Shohei Ohtani 330 366
Will Smith 331 294
Jordan Montgomery 332 383
Joe Jimenez 333 390
Lance Lynn 334 302
Yonny Chirinos 335 371
Corbin Burnes 336 397
Jake Lamb 337 365
Kole Calhoun 338 313
Jorge Polanco 339 408
Matt Harvey 340 296
Austin Barnes 341 322
Welington Castillo 342 300
Andrew Suarez 343 357
Mike Fiers 344 286
John Gant 345 376
Jake Bauers 346 427
Scott Oberg 347 318
Reyes Moronta 348 377
Tyler Skaggs 349 368
Derek Holland 350 292
Mark Melancon 351 271
Kyle Gibson 352 321
Jose Alvarado 353 431
Blake Parker 354 298
Jeff Samardzija 355 299
Jordan Hicks 356 513
Collin McHugh 357 315
Mitch Garver 358 342
Jake Cave 359 382
Framber Valdez 360 399
Pablo Lopez 361 469
Victor Robles 362 483
Willie Calhoun 363 405
Yan Gomes 364 337
Touki Toussaint 365 474
Ryne Stanek 366 367
Caleb Smith 367 369
Eric Lauer 368 442
Elias Diaz 369 354
Franmil Reyes 370 491
Robert Gsellman 371 445
Nick Pivetta 372 423
Yairo Munoz 373 458
Ryan Zimmerman 374 352
Fernando Romero 375 447
Jose Castillo 376 503
Joakim Soria 377 306
Ryan McMahon 378 432
Mark Canha 379 331
Brandon Belt 380 339
Todd Frazier 381 333
Ryan Borucki 382 426
Francisco Cervelli 383 320
Sean Reid-Foley 384 517
Robbie Erlin 385 370
Anthony DeSclafani 386 346
Austin Gomber 387 434
Thomas Pannone 388 436
Derek Dietrich 389 375
Richard Rodriguez 390 356
Daniel Mengden 391 450
Trevor Richards 392 415
Alex Reyes 393 461
Heath Fillmyer 394 448
Ben Zobrist 395 301
Eric Thames 396 355
Sandy Alcantara 397 546
David Robertson 398 362
Pedro Strop 399 338
Freddy Galvis 400 409
Wade LeBlanc 401 334
Josh Reddick 402 384
Josh James 403 425
Kohl Stewart 404 505
Gabriel Moya 405 520
Jonathan Loaisiga 406 511
Trevor May 407 364
Albert Almora 408 497
Christian Villanueva 409 389
Brad Brach 410 348
Jesse Biddle 411 416
Ariel Jurado 412 568
Travis Jankowski 413 392
Jose Urena 414 498
Carlos Rodon 415 480
Nick Kingham 416 412
Yangervis Solarte 417 374
Nick Tropeano 418 394
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 419 537
Chris Iannetta 420 336
Charlie Culberson 421 361
Daniel Robertson 422 484
Omar Narvaez 423 438
Trevor Cahill 424 380
Matt Strahm 425 443
Austin Romine 426 379
Tyler Mahle 427 575
Chris Owings 428 457
Craig Stammen 429 347
Yolmer Sanchez 430 490
Greg Allen 431 462
Alex Gordon 432 332
JaCoby Jones 433 429
Taijuan Walker 434 525
Dylan Floro 435 421
Tyson Ross 436 358
Jesse Chavez 437 351
Adam Engel 438 439
Lourdes Gurriel 439 508
Tyler Chatwood 440 418
Tyler Austin 441 440
Bud Norris 442 373
Jay Bruce 443 414
Seth Lugo 444 437
Brandon Crawford 445 391
Zack Littell 446 612
Stephen Gonsalves 447 556
Kyle Crick 448 512
Cam Bedrosian 449 487
David Hess 450 532
Brandon Woodruff 451 522
Justin Miller 452 381
Jace Fry 453 535
Dinelson Lamet 454 534
Elieser Hernandez 455 579
Max Fried 456 564
Jacob Nix 457 623
Yohander Mendez 458 592
Matt Koch 459 435
Tyler Anderson 460 455
Chance Sisco 461 577
Francisco Mejia 462 622
Frankie Montas 463 519
Daniel Poncedeleon 464 473
Alen Hanson 465 510
Michael Kopech 466 613
Felix Hernandez 467 386
Jose Iglesias 468 454
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 469 869
Adam Plutko 470 475
Jason Heyward 471 467
Brent Suter 472 466
Matt Davidson 473 486
Miguel Rojas 474 404
Corey Oswalt 475 557
Mike Leake 476 433
Wilmer Difo 477 495
CC Sabathia 478 385
Wilmer Flores 479 523
Kurt Suzuki 480 396
Devon Travis 481 453
Blaine Hardy 482 387
Antonio Senzatela 483 681
Luke Voit 484 460
Domingo German 485 549
Chris Bassitt 486 430
Jefry Rodriguez 487 573
James McCann 488 478
Wade Miley 489 401
Gorkys Hernandez 490 403
Victor Arano 491 639
Mark Trumbo 492 407
Alex Cobb 493 456
Brett Kennedy 494 620
Jorge Soler 495 482
Brock Holt 496 398
Tony Kemp 497 493
Zach Davies 498 621
Tyler O’Neill 499 608
Felix Pena 500 459

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Currently investigating the relationship between pitcher effectiveness and beard density. Biased toward a nicely rolled baseball pant. Reigning FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year and 5-time award finalist. Featured in Lindy's Sports' Fantasy Baseball magazine (2018, 2019). Now a Tout Wars competitor.

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Gabriel Moya over Jesse Biddle? That invalidates everything.