2019 Performance Review: The Fails

Physicists agree momentum exists, but it’s unclear if it applies to fantasy writing. In any case, you find yourself standing in the midst of a series. Today, I’ll be talking about failure. Specifically, my failures. If you missed it, I already checked in on my two lonely victories and a trio of acceptable performances. I also revisited my successful DFS season earlier in October.

I will not be touching upon Tout Wars Draft and Hold (I’m semi-required to dedicate an entire article), Top Tout Beta (another league in need of a full post) or TGFBI (a pair of co-managers did at least 90 percent of the work). That leaves us with four distinct leagues to discuss.

Dynasty Startup

Dynasty To Be Named Later (DTBNL) is a 25-team deep OBP dynasty using the Roto-to-Head league design. It’s run through my Patreon. I’ve implemented a number of updates to the standard dynasty rule set to make it a little easier (and more rewarding) to contend.

Along with co-manager Tom Trudeau, I executed a value-based draft focused on maximizing long term performance. In other words, we mostly picked minor league hitters. Notable near-misses during the draft on Yordan Alvarez, Nick Madrigal, and a few others still sting.

Overall though, this last-place finish went according to plan. We nabbed Juan Soto with the ninth overall pick and later acquired Alex Bregman with Bo Bichette and Marco Luciano. Speculative trades for Josh Rojas and Josh VanMeter appear to have born fruit. We already have the makings of a long term offensive powerhouse. Now we just need to find any pitchers.

Dynasty Continuation

Some of my old college teammates invited me to their 20-team dynasty league prior to the 2018 season. As is almost always the case, the roster I inherited was Carlos Correa and a pile of smoking turds. So I punted 2018 for the draft pick. Our league has a rule forcing teams to intentionally field their best lineup, so losing is easier said then done. I was even placed on probation for choosing to play Brandon Nimmo over Rhys Hoskins. I mention this rule because players cannot be rostered until the season after their debut. Getting a good draft slot is kind of a big deal.

Nuts, right?

With the fourth overall pick, I selected Gleyber Torres. Sadly, no effort on my part was sufficient to net a two spot climb in the draft order for Juan Soto or Ronald Acuna.

In any case, this season, I successfully climbed from 16th to fifth place. I thought the league paid the top five participants, but I guess that’s not actually the case. I probably would have played 2019 differently if I was full apprised of our payout rules (that’s on me). Now I’ll miss on the loads of elite talent available with the first 10 picks of the next draft. Forget Vladito, Yordan Alvarez, Keston Huira, Eloy Jimenez, or Pete Alonso. Even “just” a Shane Bieber or Cavan Biggio would have been a clutch addition.

My 2019 roster fell short in two ways. I was never able to find a good source of stolen bases outside of Ramon Laureano or Ketel Marte. Their combined 23 stolen bases were hardly noteworthy. I did grab Jarrod Dyson for the low price of Derek Fisher (right after the Jays acquired him), but Dyson immediately proceeded to disappear on the bases. Grumble. I would have finished third with just nine more steals. Desperately trying to use Dyson as often as possible probably cost me too.

The other issue was unavoidable. My only keeper pitcher was Jameson Taillon (whoops). I scraped together plenty of points via closers and holds relievers, but that didn’t make up for tepid output in the wins and quality starts categories. Did I mention this is a redonkulous 7×7 scoring format?

On the plus side, my offense easily won the power game despite my giving away Max Kepler for practically nothing prior to the keeper deadline.

Otto-Fail

The Screw Cancer ottoneu league is a standard FGpts format. As a reminder, we get $400 to build a 40-man roster. Basically, it’s dynasty-lite. With a $50 Manny Machado and $51 Joey Votto headlining my club, it’s little wonder I finished in fourth place. Then again, both players performed reasonably well in the FGpts format. I’m even inclined to keep Machado unless a better option comes along.

A miserably slow start to the season led me to deprioritize this team. A hot mid-season led by $51 Max Scherzer, $23 Gerrit Cole, $19 Ronald Acuna, $35 Francisco Lindor, $15 Joey Gallo, $7 Hunter Dozier, and $41 Jose Altuve helped me to surge from dead last to fourth place. Additional effort to pluck low hanging fruit like hitting my games played caps would have yielded a third place finish. I also didn’t make any notable trade deadline moves.

Hopefully, a cheap ($19 pre-arb) Vladito, Acuna, and others will survive arbitration season and provide the backbone of a 2020 winner. Additional effort would not have saved my season, but it could have put me above the 19,000 point plateau – a level I failed to reach with my winning roster in FanGraphs Staff Two.

Home League Lapse

My home league, a 12-team 5×5 (OPS) keeper league on Yahoo has long been a place for me to pad my bragging rights. Not so this year. My eighth place finish traces directly to my 49 waiver moves and zero trades – career lows in this decade-long league. My team performed most miserably in home runs, RBI, stolen bases, and WHIP – 10th in all four categories.

A number of failed keepers also ruined the day – especially Matt Carpenter, Andrew Benintendi, and Jose Altuve. They were expected to provide about 40 more home runs and 30 more stolen bases, totals which would have netted upwards of 30 more roto points and a fourth place finish. And honestly, I was hoping for even more from them. For instance, I had Altuve penciled in for 16 stolen bases with an upside of 35.

Of course, better performance early in the season could have inspired more effort on my part and the associated benefits. But I also have to take the blame on failing to grab the myriad in-season upgrades available via waivers. Instead, I sat on players like Didi Gregorius and Shohei Ohtani because they’d be cheap to keep.

As proof of the totality of my negligence, Felipe Vazquez is still on my roster. Woof. In May, I announced I would be dropping this league next season. I’ll install a co-manager to handle 90 percent of business.





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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andrewj
4 years ago

Are you willing to share the league numbers of your Ottoneu leagues so we can scrutinize your management from afar?

andrewj
4 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

Thanks!