2019 Deserved Barrel% – Full List

by
November 14, 2019

A couple of weeks ago, I devised a deserved barrel rate (where barrel rate is calculated as a percentage of batted ball events, or Barrel/BBE) based exclusively on a hitter’s average exit velocity (EV) and average launch angle (LA). To employ such a simple model, I made a broad but accurate assumption: the average hitter’s average EV (or LA) has a distribution of EVs (or LAs) centered around it, and this distribution does not differ dramatically from other hitters’ distributions.

In layman’s terms, the typical hitter’s average launch angle is his — he owns it, and it reflects his swing plane and mechanics — but he is no better than any other typical hitter in repeating his average launch angle. He, like everyone else, will likely vary from the mean by a certain margin of error. I make the same assumption of exit velocity as well. The two variables bear almost zero correlation to each other. In light of this assumption, the best thing a hitter can do is maximize his exit velocity and hopes it coincides with an optimal launch angle.

(Some folks have suggested I include the percentage of balls hit 95+ mph to refine deserved barrels. The notion intrigues me. However, to illustrate a point: if you have two hitters with identical average EVs, would you expect their distribution of EVs to be dramatically different? Probably not. The inclusion of hard-hit rate accepts as fact that one hitter might be better at hitting 95+ mph more frequently — which would also suggest he hits more softly more frequently as well, and with certainty. This doesn’t stand out to me as a repeatable, let alone necessarily desirable, trait.)

With these assumptions (over how little control a hitter has over optimally pairing his distributions of EVs and LAs) in mind, any deviations from the mean can be interpreted as (un)lucky. This is true and untrue. The other day I researched this. Turns out some hitters can achieve less variance in their launch angle. It comes as no great shock that Joey Votto boasts the narrowest launch angle variance in the Statcast Era. Yet — yet! — his +/- 21.9° standard deviation around his 12.9° average angle still amounts to a lot of variance. It implies that roughly two-thirds of his batted ball events (BBEs) fall between -9.0° and 34.8°. That’s an enormous range of outcomes! And there is an entire one-third of his BBEs that falls outside that range.

Some contemporaries who litter the top of this list of elite batsmiths with Votto — Joe Mauer, Freddie Freeman, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Michael Brantley, Christian Yelich, Daniel Murphy, Buster Posey — come as no surprise (remember, this spans 2015-19). Others — Nicholas Castellanos, Matt Carpenter, J.D. Martinez, Brandon Belt, Justin Turner, DJ LeMahieu, Eugenio Suarez(?!) — were once touted for and/or have demonstrated an elite hit tool. Ultimately, it’s reasonable to expect a hitter with a plus-plus hit tool to overachieve in this regard.

That said, while I concede that it’s valid to assume certain hitters can optimize their launch angle more frequently than others, I am reluctant to concede that it’s valid to assume those particular hitters superhuman in their ability to do so. Votto is an Elite Batsmith, and yet he exhibits only a fraction more control over repeating his launch angle than the typical hitter.

Anyway. You don’t care about any of the theoretical stuff. You care about the goods! And I’m here to deliver the goods. You will find below a table of every (or nearly every) hitter who produced at least one (1) barrel in 2019.

I can’t assess every hitter who has ever over- or under-achieved his deserved barrel rate, but I will offer some insight into an assortment of hitters whose discrepancies strike me as worth highlighting.

  • Joey Gallo (+9.8%) over-achieved by roughly 4% in previous years, so there appears to be some consistency here. Still, that leaves roughly 6% unaccounted for.
  • Gary Sanchez (+6.7%) has over-achieved by about half his 2019 margin since the start of 2013, which suggests he might backslide as much.
  • Roberto Perez (+6.2%), with previous marks of +4.7% and +3.5%, might actually be someone to not worry about too much…??? I said it. (But I’m not sure if I mean it.)
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (+6.1%)… this will be a contentious one. Obviously, certain hitters are capable of over-performing consistently. Hitters cut from a similar cloth as Tatis (Javier Baez, Adalberto Mondesi, etc.) do, too, but not anywhere near as much. So, how much of it does he give back? I mean, does it not totally surprise us that maybe, just maybe, a .410 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) isn’t sustainable?
  • George Springer (+6.1%) decimated his previous best HR/FB rate. Even with a juiced ball, this one seems like an easy fade and simply confirms what our intuition would’ve normally told us about reversion to the mean.
  • If Carlos Correa (+5.9%) can ever stay healthy, maybe he will prove to us his half-season of mashing wasn’t a fluke. Unfortunately, with previous marks of +0.8% and –0.3%, it seems like Correa played over his head.
  • Mike Trout (+5.8%) always does this because he’s the GOAT.
  • Pete Alonso (+5.2%) is the other rookie who will be hard to gauge heading into 2020. His 90.6 mph average exit velocity is actually really underwhelming in the grand scheme of things:

At the other end of the spectrum…

  • Josh VanMeter (–6.7%) mashed in the minors but didn’t quite live up to the hype at the MLB level. He’s still a sneaky bet to be a five-category contributor; that his Statcast data thinks he deserved better suggests the breakout might simply come a year later for those eager about him and patient enough to wait for it (me).
  • Yuli Gurriel (–4.8%) is a terrifying case study because he always under-performs by this margin — which suggests his 2019 output might be legitimate. He and Alex Bregman (–4.5%) take advantage of the friendly confines in Houston despite their consistent deserved barrel rate deficits.
  • It’s hard to tell if Willie Calhoun (–3.7%) is a post-hype sleeper, a wide-awake sleeper, any kind of sleeper at all… but whatever he is, it appears there may be even more in the tank. We just don’t have enough data to know conclusively.
  • Jose Ramirez (–3.4%) is a bit enigmatic; his 2018 mark of –0.4% appears to be the high point and outlier. Maybe don’t read into this one too much.
  • Trevor Story (–3.1%) may have been unlucky in 2019 — and still hit 35 homers. Interesting, interesting… (Personal interpretation: he got lucky despite suboptimal outcomes and ultimately performed as normal. Sometimes things shake out that way.)
  • Yes, this might as well be a call to buy low on Manny Machado (–3.1%).

If you want to conduct your own year-to-year analysis for a certain player, you can find the mathematical equation for deserved barrels in the previous post here.

2019 Deserved Barrels (dBarrel%)
Player Year Barrels BBE EV LA Barrel% dBarrel% Diff
Aaron Judge 2019 48 238 95.9 11.4 20.2% 20.8% -0.6%
Miguel Sano 2019 47 222 94.4 15.9 21.2% 18.3% +2.8%
Joey Gallo 2019 34 129 93 20.3 26.4% 16.6% +9.8%
Nelson Cruz 2019 65 326 93.7 13.1 19.9% 16.1% +3.9%
Matt Chapman 2019 54 439 92.6 16.3 12.3% 14.6% -2.3%
Kyle Schwarber 2019 55 379 92.7 15 14.5% 14.5% +0.0%
Josh Donaldson 2019 62 396 92.9 13.3 15.7% 14.4% +1.2%
Jorge Soler 2019 70 415 92.6 15.4 16.9% 14.4% +2.5%
Franmil Reyes 2019 51 345 93.3 9.5 14.8% 14.3% +0.5%
Christian Yelich 2019 59 374 93.1 11.2 15.8% 14.3% +1.5%
Yoan Moncada 2019 44 361 92.8 12 12.2% 13.9% -1.7%
Matt Olson 2019 50 346 91.9 18.3 14.5% 13.8% +0.6%
Josh Bell 2019 53 416 92.3 13 12.7% 13.2% -0.4%
Yordan Alvarez 2019 38 221 92.2 13.4 17.2% 13.1% +4.1%
Mike Trout 2019 66 354 90.7 22.2 18.6% 12.9% +5.8%
Shohei Ohtani 2019 34 278 92.8 6.8 12.2% 12.7% -0.4%
Brandon Lowe 2019 30 184 91.1 18.7 16.3% 12.5% +3.8%
Mookie Betts 2019 52 505 91 19.1 10.3% 12.5% -2.2%
Gary Sanchez 2019 52 272 91 19.1 19.1% 12.5% +6.7%
Marcell Ozuna 2019 47 372 91.8 13.5 12.6% 12.4% +0.3%
Keston Hiura 2019 29 208 91.4 16 13.9% 12.3% +1.6%
Jose Abreu 2019 63 492 92.1 10.9 12.8% 12.3% +0.5%
Rafael Devers 2019 48 531 92.1 10.3 9.0% 12.1% -3.1%
Hunter Dozier 2019 38 380 91.1 16.7 10.0% 12.0% -2.0%
Jason Castro 2019 26 151 91.5 14 17.2% 11.9% +5.3%
Carlos Santana 2019 45 467 91.8 11.8 9.6% 11.9% -2.3%
Rhys Hoskins 2019 39 403 89.7 24 9.7% 11.9% -2.2%
Edwin Encarnacion 2019 40 318 90 22.5 12.6% 11.8% +0.7%
Eric Thames 2019 24 258 90.7 18.6 9.3% 11.8% -2.5%
Trevor Story 2019 36 417 90.9 17.3 8.6% 11.8% -3.1%
Jay Bruce 2019 31 231 90 22.2 13.4% 11.8% +1.7%
Tom Murphy 2019 19 174 90.6 18.9 10.9% 11.7% -0.8%
Teoscar Hernandez 2019 31 265 91.1 15.5 11.7% 11.6% +0.1%
Danny Santana 2019 31 328 91.4 13.5 9.5% 11.6% -2.2%
Anthony Rendon 2019 56 468 90.4 19.5 12.0% 11.6% +0.4%
Mitch Garver 2019 35 226 91.1 15.3 15.5% 11.6% +3.9%
Cody Bellinger 2019 59 455 90.7 17.6 13.0% 11.5% +1.4%
JaCoby Jones 2019 22 206 91.3 13.7 10.7% 11.5% -0.8%
Stephen Vogt 2019 20 193 89.8 22.4 10.4% 11.5% -1.1%
Will Smith 2019 13 121 89.5 23.7 10.7% 11.5% -0.7%
Christian Walker 2019 49 375 91.1 14.8 13.1% 11.4% +1.6%
Howie Kendrick 2019 33 290 91.6 11 11.4% 11.4% +0.0%
Bryce Harper 2019 59 399 91.3 13.1 14.8% 11.4% +3.4%
Joc Pederson 2019 35 341 90.9 15.3 10.3% 11.2% -1.0%
J.D. Martinez 2019 53 442 91.3 12.5 12.0% 11.2% +0.8%
Manny Machado 2019 37 462 91.2 13 8.0% 11.1% -3.1%
Juan Soto 2019 51 416 91.3 12 12.3% 11.1% +1.2%
Travis Demeritte 2019 4 108 90.7 15.6 3.7% 11.0% -7.3%
Renato Nunez 2019 43 402 89.9 20 10.7% 10.9% -0.2%
J.D. Davis 2019 36 315 91.4 10.6 11.4% 10.9% +0.5%
Ji-Man Choi 2019 35 309 91.1 12.6 11.3% 10.9% +0.5%
Austin Meadows 2019 50 399 90.4 16.7 12.5% 10.8% +1.7%
Hunter Pence 2019 20 219 91.4 10.1 9.1% 10.8% -1.7%
C.J. Cron 2019 53 353 91 12.7 15.0% 10.7% +4.3%
Justin Turner 2019 31 396 90.2 17.6 7.8% 10.7% -2.9%
Ryan Zimmerman 2019 10 134 91.4 9.7 7.5% 10.7% -3.2%
Hunter Renfroe 2019 35 292 89.9 19.1 12.0% 10.7% +1.3%
Justin Smoak 2019 34 309 90.3 16.8 11.0% 10.7% +0.3%
Pete Alonso 2019 66 417 90.6 14.8 15.8% 10.6% +5.2%
Travis Shaw 2019 10 141 88.7 24.4 7.1% 10.6% -3.5%
Rowdy Tellez 2019 34 257 90.7 14 13.2% 10.6% +2.7%
DJ LeMahieu 2019 39 517 91.7 6.7 7.5% 10.5% -3.0%
Kendrys Morales 2019 10 145 91.3 9.5 6.9% 10.5% -3.6%
Ronald Acuna Jr. 2019 66 439 90.6 14.2 15.0% 10.4% +4.6%
Ryan McMahon 2019 29 322 91.4 8.4 9.0% 10.4% -1.4%
Austin Riley 2019 23 168 89.4 20.6 13.7% 10.4% +3.3%
Yandy Diaz 2019 26 250 91.7 5.7 10.4% 10.3% +0.1%
Shin-Soo Choo 2019 35 399 91.3 8.7 8.8% 10.3% -1.5%
Eloy Jimenez 2019 43 336 91.2 9.3 12.8% 10.2% +2.6%
A.J. Pollock 2019 19 238 90.5 13.9 8.0% 10.2% -2.2%
Xander Bogaerts 2019 43 498 90.6 13.1 8.6% 10.2% -1.5%
Gio Urshela 2019 25 359 90.5 13.6 7.0% 10.1% -3.2%
Max Kepler 2019 38 429 89.7 18.2 8.9% 10.1% -1.3%
Andrew McCutchen 2019 12 164 90.6 12.7 7.3% 10.1% -2.7%
Jake Lamb 2019 11 134 90.4 13.8 8.2% 10.0% -1.8%
J.T. Realmuto 2019 37 423 90.3 14.4 8.7% 10.0% -1.3%
Ryan O’Hearn 2019 21 231 90.5 13 9.1% 10.0% -0.9%
Willie Calhoun 2019 16 258 89.7 17.6 6.2% 9.9% -3.7%
Alex Bregman 2019 26 479 89.3 19.6 5.4% 9.9% -4.5%
Paul Goldschmidt 2019 49 434 90.1 15.3 11.3% 9.9% +1.4%
Byron Buxton 2019 17 206 89.3 19.5 8.3% 9.9% -1.6%
Yasmani Grandal 2019 43 379 90.3 13.9 11.3% 9.9% +1.5%
Francisco Lindor 2019 38 507 90.6 11.9 7.5% 9.9% -2.4%
Nick Markakis 2019 11 361 91.2 7.3 3.0% 9.8% -6.7%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 2019 26 232 90.2 14.1 11.2% 9.8% +1.4%
Mitch Moreland 2019 26 226 90.8 10.1 11.5% 9.7% +1.8%
Ryan Braun 2019 35 357 91.2 7.1 9.8% 9.7% +0.1%
Jose Ramirez 2019 26 414 89.1 19.8 6.3% 9.7% -3.4%
Kyle Seager 2019 26 309 89.3 18.6 8.4% 9.6% -1.2%
Travis d’Arnaud 2019 21 272 90 14.6 7.7% 9.6% -1.9%
Eugenio Suarez 2019 55 392 89.4 17.8 14.0% 9.6% +4.5%
Nolan Arenado 2019 40 503 89.4 17.7 8.0% 9.5% -1.6%
Josh VanMeter 2019 7 173 89.7 16 4.0% 9.5% -5.5%
Javier Baez 2019 48 377 91 7.6 12.7% 9.5% +3.2%
Brandon Dixon 2019 29 259 89.5 17 11.2% 9.5% +1.7%
Miguel Cabrera 2019 25 390 90.3 12.2 6.4% 9.4% -3.0%
Khris Davis 2019 34 337 90.1 13.2 10.1% 9.4% +0.7%
Yasiel Puig 2019 41 426 89.9 14.2 9.6% 9.3% +0.3%
Tyler Naquin 2019 19 212 90.2 12.3 9.0% 9.3% -0.3%
Aaron Hicks 2019 15 152 89.8 14.7 9.9% 9.3% +0.6%
Cavan Biggio 2019 21 233 88.7 20.1 9.0% 9.2% -0.2%
Mike Moustakas 2019 44 427 89.3 17.1 10.3% 9.2% +1.1%
Marwin Gonzalez 2019 21 328 90.4 10.6 6.4% 9.2% -2.8%
Dansby Swanson 2019 37 365 89.8 14.2 10.1% 9.2% +1.0%
Rougned Odor 2019 47 346 89.4 16.2 13.6% 9.1% +4.5%
Freddie Freeman 2019 59 472 89.7 14.5 12.5% 9.1% +3.4%
Robinson Cano 2019 24 324 90.8 7.3 7.4% 9.1% -1.7%
Anthony Santander 2019 23 298 89.6 14.8 7.7% 9.0% -1.3%
Max Muncy 2019 42 342 89.7 14.2 12.3% 9.0% +3.3%
Ian Desmond 2019 34 327 90.6 8.4 10.4% 9.0% +1.4%
Evan Longoria 2019 26 346 89.7 14 7.5% 9.0% -1.5%
Randal Grichuk 2019 36 425 89.3 16.2 8.5% 9.0% -0.5%
Chad Pinder 2019 21 257 90.5 8.8 8.2% 8.9% -0.8%
Ramon Laureano 2019 31 320 89.5 14.8 9.7% 8.9% +0.8%
Gleyber Torres 2019 43 424 89 17.4 10.1% 8.9% +1.3%
Tyler Flowers 2019 19 168 90.1 11.1 11.3% 8.9% +2.5%
Jordan Luplow 2019 20 165 89.3 15.7 12.1% 8.8% +3.3%
Trea Turner 2019 28 410 90.3 9.7 6.8% 8.8% -2.0%
Eddie Rosario 2019 41 482 89.1 16.7 8.5% 8.8% -0.3%
Mike Yastrzemski 2019 30 268 88.7 18.5 11.2% 8.8% +2.4%
Daniel Vogelbach 2019 34 315 88.9 17.2 10.8% 8.7% +2.1%
Enrique Hernandez 2019 19 321 88.4 19.5 5.9% 8.7% -2.8%
Luke Voit 2019 38 288 89.7 12.8 13.2% 8.7% +4.5%
Jake Cave 2019 16 128 90.5 7.4 12.5% 8.6% +3.9%
Tommy Pham 2019 35 445 90.8 5.1 7.9% 8.6% -0.7%
Matt Adams 2019 29 196 88.4 19.2 14.8% 8.6% +6.2%
Mike Zunino 2019 19 168 88.4 19.2 11.3% 8.6% +2.7%
Kole Calhoun 2019 44 392 89.3 14.7 11.2% 8.6% +2.7%
Brian Anderson 2019 31 348 89.9 11.1 8.9% 8.5% +0.4%
Jorge Alfaro 2019 32 279 90.8 4.7 11.5% 8.5% +2.9%
Yuli Gurriel 2019 19 505 89.3 14.5 3.8% 8.5% -4.8%
Ketel Marte 2019 45 485 89.8 11.5 9.3% 8.5% +0.8%
Welington Castillo 2019 18 158 89.5 13.2 11.4% 8.5% +2.9%
Chance Sisco 2019 11 106 89 15.9 10.4% 8.5% +1.9%
Mitch Haniger 2019 20 167 88.4 18.7 12.0% 8.4% +3.5%
James McCann 2019 28 303 89.9 10.7 9.2% 8.4% +0.8%
Brian Dozier 2019 21 312 88.3 19 6.7% 8.4% -1.7%
Trey Mancini 2019 48 464 90.3 7.8 10.3% 8.4% +2.0%
Mark Canha 2019 29 305 89.1 15 9.5% 8.4% +1.1%
Jesus Aguilar 2019 18 240 89.3 13.8 7.5% 8.3% -0.8%
Andrew Benintendi 2019 33 409 88.6 17.3 8.1% 8.3% -0.2%
Maikel Franco 2019 23 331 89 14.9 6.9% 8.2% -1.3%
George Springer 2019 53 370 89.8 10.3 14.3% 8.2% +6.1%
Niko Goodrum 2019 18 287 89.3 13.2 6.3% 8.2% -1.9%
Michael Conforto 2019 48 405 88.8 15.7 11.9% 8.1% +3.7%
Chris Davis 2019 18 171 89.1 14.1 10.5% 8.1% +2.4%
Ty France 2019 8 136 88.9 15.1 5.9% 8.1% -2.2%
Danny Jansen 2019 16 270 88.7 16.1 5.9% 8.1% -2.2%
Ozzie Albies 2019 35 532 88.8 15.6 6.6% 8.1% -1.5%
Cheslor Cuthbert 2019 11 242 88.9 15 4.5% 8.1% -3.5%
Curtis Granderson 2019 16 221 88.1 18.7 7.2% 8.1% -0.8%
Carson Kelly 2019 21 236 89 14.3 8.9% 8.0% +0.9%
Joey Votto 2019 28 405 88.8 15 6.9% 8.0% -1.0%
Logan Forsythe 2019 12 219 89.3 12.3 5.5% 7.9% -2.5%
Nicholas Castellanos 2019 53 475 89 13.9 11.2% 7.9% +3.2%
Bo Bichette 2019 13 147 89.6 10.3 8.8% 7.9% +0.9%
Marcus Semien 2019 47 556 88.8 14.7 8.5% 7.9% +0.6%
Scott Kingery 2019 25 313 88.2 17.5 8.0% 7.9% +0.1%
Francisco Mejia 2019 8 171 87.8 19.1 4.7% 7.8% -3.1%
Todd Frazier 2019 25 341 88.2 17.3 7.3% 7.8% -0.5%
Didi Gregorius 2019 16 273 88.2 17.2 5.9% 7.8% -1.9%
David Peralta 2019 16 296 90.1 6.4 5.4% 7.8% -2.4%
Stephen Piscotty 2019 22 277 89.1 12.6 7.9% 7.7% +0.2%
Corey Seager 2019 29 395 88.8 14.1 7.3% 7.7% -0.4%
Asdrubal Cabrera 2019 20 351 88.8 14.1 5.7% 7.7% -2.0%
Aristides Aquino 2019 20 147 87.9 18.2 13.6% 7.7% +5.9%
Bryan Reynolds 2019 25 373 89.6 9.4 6.7% 7.7% -1.0%
Jackie Bradley Jr. 2019 34 344 89.7 8.7 9.9% 7.7% +2.2%
Matt Wieters 2019 9 123 88.8 13.8 7.3% 7.6% -0.3%
Avisail Garcia 2019 43 367 89.5 9.8 11.7% 7.6% +4.1%
Eduardo Escobar 2019 36 516 87.8 18.3 7.0% 7.6% -0.6%
Matt Beaty 2019 11 216 89.4 10.2 5.1% 7.6% -2.5%
Carlos Correa 2019 28 208 89 12.4 13.5% 7.6% +5.9%
Clint Frazier 2019 17 158 88.4 15.4 10.8% 7.5% +3.2%
Eric Hosmer 2019 33 461 90.5 2.1 7.2% 7.5% -0.3%
David Bote 2019 12 212 89.7 7.7 5.7% 7.4% -1.8%
Charlie Blackmon 2019 40 481 88.5 14.5 8.3% 7.4% +0.9%
Kris Bryant 2019 37 400 87.4 19.3 9.3% 7.4% +1.8%
Pablo Sandoval 2019 24 210 89.3 10.1 11.4% 7.4% +4.0%
Domingo Santana 2019 36 289 89 11.7 12.5% 7.4% +5.1%
Dylan Moore 2019 10 155 87.5 18.5 6.5% 7.3% -0.8%
Derek Dietrich 2019 21 178 86.9 20.7 11.8% 7.3% +4.5%
Anthony Rizzo 2019 30 429 88.8 12.4 7.0% 7.3% -0.3%
Christian Vazquez 2019 24 387 88.7 12.9 6.2% 7.3% -1.1%
Alex Verdugo 2019 17 300 89.4 8.8 5.7% 7.2% -1.6%
Yan Gomes 2019 16 231 87.6 17.9 6.9% 7.2% -0.3%
Nomar Mazara 2019 35 327 89.1 10.5 10.7% 7.2% +3.5%
Isan Diaz 2019 9 121 87.7 17.3 7.4% 7.2% +0.2%
Michael Chavis 2019 25 220 88.8 12 11.4% 7.2% +4.2%
Jose Osuna 2019 11 217 89.2 9.6 5.1% 7.1% -2.1%
Brandon Belt 2019 35 403 86.4 21.9 8.7% 7.1% +1.5%
Fernando Tatis Jr. 2019 30 227 89.6 6.9 13.2% 7.1% +6.1%
Curt Casali 2019 9 151 87.2 19 6.0% 7.1% -1.1%
Wil Myers 2019 30 269 88.9 11.1 11.2% 7.1% +4.1%
Jeimer Candelario 2019 14 237 88 15.6 5.9% 7.1% -1.2%
Victor Caratini 2019 17 188 89.6 6.7 9.0% 7.1% +2.0%
Justin Upton 2019 17 146 87.2 18.5 11.6% 7.0% +4.7%
Amed Rosario 2019 21 497 89.2 8.8 4.2% 7.0% -2.7%
Freddy Galvis 2019 23 415 88.2 14.2 5.5% 7.0% -1.4%
Cameron Maybin 2019 17 167 88.8 11.1 10.2% 7.0% +3.2%
Jeff McNeil 2019 21 436 88.4 13.2 4.8% 7.0% -2.1%
Dominic Smith 2019 10 133 88 14.8 7.5% 6.9% +0.7%
Matt Carpenter 2019 23 293 87.2 18.1 7.8% 6.8% +1.0%
Brian Goodwin 2019 18 288 87.3 17.6 6.3% 6.8% -0.6%
Christin Stewart 2019 20 272 86.9 19 7.4% 6.8% +0.6%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2019 29 375 89.4 6.7 7.7% 6.8% +1.0%
Paul DeJong 2019 38 440 87 18.5 8.6% 6.7% +1.9%
Lorenzo Cain 2019 19 460 89.4 6.6 4.1% 6.7% -2.6%
Brian McCann 2019 13 230 88.6 11.3 5.7% 6.7% -1.1%
Trent Grisham 2019 6 111 87.6 16 5.4% 6.7% -1.3%
Michael Brantley 2019 30 513 88.7 10.6 5.8% 6.7% -0.8%
Jason Heyward 2019 24 406 88.6 11.1 5.9% 6.7% -0.8%
Mike Tauchman 2019 12 190 88.5 11.5 6.3% 6.7% -0.3%
Starlin Castro 2019 33 534 88.6 10.9 6.2% 6.6% -0.5%
Albert Pujols 2019 26 431 88.3 12.4 6.0% 6.6% -0.6%
Wilmer Flores 2019 12 235 87.4 16.4 5.1% 6.6% -1.5%
Kevan Smith 2019 10 155 89.4 5.9 6.5% 6.6% -0.1%
Josh Naylor 2019 12 190 89.6 4.5 6.3% 6.6% -0.3%
Jorge Polanco 2019 35 524 87 17.9 6.7% 6.6% +0.1%
Aledmys Diaz 2019 12 188 88.3 12.2 6.4% 6.6% -0.2%
Matt Joyce 2019 10 155 87.3 16.7 6.5% 6.6% -0.1%
Yonder Alonso 2019 12 224 87.9 13.9 5.4% 6.5% -1.2%
Jesse Winker 2019 14 278 89.1 7.4 5.0% 6.5% -1.5%
Colin Moran 2019 26 353 88.2 12.3 7.4% 6.5% +0.9%
John Hicks 2019 14 211 87.4 15.9 6.6% 6.5% +0.2%
Wilson Ramos 2019 19 407 90 0 4.7% 6.3% -1.6%
Corey Dickerson 2019 17 207 87.1 16.4 8.2% 6.3% +1.9%
Jake Bauers 2019 13 260 87.5 14.6 5.0% 6.2% -1.2%
Tommy La Stella 2019 14 264 87.8 13.2 5.3% 6.2% -0.9%
Austin Nola 2019 6 177 87.1 16 3.4% 6.2% -2.8%
Austin Hedges 2019 17 206 85.8 20.4 8.3% 6.1% +2.1%
Brandon Nimmo 2019 9 132 88.1 11.4 6.8% 6.1% +0.7%
David Dahl 2019 28 271 88.2 10.8 10.3% 6.1% +4.2%
Kevin Kiermaier 2019 19 345 88.9 6.7 5.5% 6.1% -0.6%
Russell Martin 2019 8 151 88.2 10.6 5.3% 6.0% -0.8%
Ronny Rodriguez 2019 15 199 87.3 14.7 7.5% 6.0% +1.5%
Austin Romine 2019 12 180 88.2 10.4 6.7% 6.0% +0.7%
Buster Posey 2019 16 336 88.4 9.1 4.8% 5.9% -1.2%
Austin Barnes 2019 7 158 86.9 16 4.4% 5.9% -1.5%
Ben Gamel 2019 8 209 88.2 10.1 3.8% 5.9% -2.1%
Dwight Smith Jr 2019 11 280 88.7 7.2 3.9% 5.9% -2.0%
Yadier Molina 2019 14 366 87.4 13.8 3.8% 5.9% -2.1%
Kurt Suzuki 2019 16 247 86 18.9 6.5% 5.9% +0.6%
Garrett Cooper 2019 26 272 89.1 4.5 9.6% 5.9% +3.7%
Robbie Grossman 2019 8 336 87.7 12.1 2.4% 5.8% -3.4%
Donovan Solano 2019 7 168 87.1 14.6 4.2% 5.8% -1.6%
Tim Anderson 2019 20 391 88.3 8.7 5.1% 5.7% -0.6%
Rio Ruiz 2019 8 285 87.9 10.7 2.8% 5.7% -2.9%
Jonathan Schoop 2019 28 318 87.5 12.5 8.8% 5.7% +3.1%
Jose Martinez 2019 18 254 88.6 6.8 7.1% 5.7% +1.4%
Alex Gordon 2019 25 463 88.2 9 5.4% 5.7% -0.3%
Tommy Edman 2019 14 265 87.1 14.1 5.3% 5.7% -0.4%
Brett Gardner 2019 16 386 87.2 13.6 4.1% 5.6% -1.5%
Pedro Severino 2019 20 235 87.2 12.9 8.5% 5.4% +3.1%
Harold Ramirez 2019 21 331 88.9 3.8 6.3% 5.4% +0.9%
Adalberto Mondesi 2019 24 292 87.9 9.6 8.2% 5.4% +2.8%
Willy Adames 2019 32 382 87.8 10 8.4% 5.4% +3.0%
Adeiny Hechavarria 2019 10 156 87.5 11.4 6.4% 5.4% +1.0%
Willson Contreras 2019 30 260 88.3 7.3 11.5% 5.4% +6.1%
Robinson Chirinos 2019 20 248 86.2 16.5 8.1% 5.4% +2.7%
Martin Maldonado 2019 19 250 87.4 11.7 7.6% 5.4% +2.2%
Brandon Drury 2019 28 308 86.9 13.8 9.1% 5.4% +3.7%
Joey Wendle 2019 3 194 87.4 11.6 1.5% 5.3% -3.8%
Nick Senzel 2019 22 275 87.5 11 8.0% 5.3% +2.7%
Brock Holt 2019 3 206 87.5 11 1.5% 5.3% -3.9%
Hernan Perez 2019 7 169 87.9 9 4.1% 5.3% -1.2%
Melky Cabrera 2019 7 338 87.9 8.9 2.1% 5.3% -3.2%
Jurickson Profar 2019 24 387 86.7 14.2 6.2% 5.3% +0.9%
Tim Beckham 2019 18 202 87.5 10.8 8.9% 5.3% +3.7%
Whit Merrifield 2019 24 559 86.4 15.3 4.3% 5.3% -1.0%
Elvis Andrus 2019 18 514 88.2 7.1 3.5% 5.2% -1.7%
Jordy Mercer 2019 13 199 86.9 13.2 6.5% 5.2% +1.3%
Daniel Descalso 2019 5 113 87.5 10.5 4.4% 5.2% -0.8%
Ryan Cordell 2019 10 155 85.9 16.7 6.5% 5.2% +1.3%
Andrelton Simmons 2019 6 361 87.7 9.4 1.7% 5.2% -3.5%
Jonathan Lucroy 2019 9 245 87 12.5 3.7% 5.1% -1.5%
Omar Narvaez 2019 18 339 85.4 17.8 5.3% 5.1% +0.2%
Jeff Mathis 2019 2 142 85.7 16.8 1.4% 5.0% -3.6%
Daniel Murphy 2019 9 368 86.3 14.8 2.4% 5.0% -2.6%
Jason Kipnis 2019 21 381 86.7 13.1 5.5% 5.0% +0.5%
Josh Reddick 2019 15 445 86 15.6 3.4% 5.0% -1.6%
Jean Segura 2019 16 507 88 7 3.2% 5.0% -1.8%
Elias Diaz 2019 6 251 87.6 9 2.4% 4.9% -2.6%
Austin Slater 2019 11 109 88.6 3.2 10.1% 4.9% +5.2%
Adam Eaton 2019 18 472 86.6 13.2 3.8% 4.9% -1.1%
Harrison Bader 2019 23 233 86.6 13.2 9.9% 4.9% +5.0%
Oscar Mercado 2019 15 365 86.5 13.4 4.1% 4.9% -0.7%
Manuel Margot 2019 11 313 86.5 13.3 3.5% 4.8% -1.3%
Kyle Farmer 2019 7 125 85 17.8 5.6% 4.8% +0.8%
Roberto Perez 2019 30 273 88.3 4.3 11.0% 4.8% +6.2%
Luis Arraez 2019 8 300 86.9 11.4 2.7% 4.8% -2.1%
Gordon Beckham 2019 14 155 86.2 14.1 9.0% 4.7% +4.3%
Brandon Crawford 2019 21 387 87.5 8.4 5.4% 4.7% +0.7%
Eric Sogard 2019 7 339 84.7 18.3 2.1% 4.7% -2.6%
Sandy Leon 2019 2 130 83.6 20.5 1.5% 4.7% -3.1%
Billy McKinney 2019 12 182 85.9 14.6 6.6% 4.6% +2.0%
Jonathan Villar 2019 32 472 87.7 7 6.8% 4.6% +2.2%
Kevin Pillar 2019 26 529 86 13.9 4.9% 4.5% +0.4%
Joey Rickard 2019 4 118 84.7 17.6 3.4% 4.5% -1.1%
Nick Ahmed 2019 30 456 87.5 7.5 6.6% 4.5% +2.1%
Ronald Guzman 2019 16 173 85.6 14.9 9.2% 4.4% +4.8%
Adam Jones 2019 26 387 86 13.5 6.7% 4.4% +2.3%
Johan Camargo 2019 7 190 86.7 10.8 3.7% 4.4% -0.7%
Joe Panik 2019 8 397 86.3 12.3 2.0% 4.4% -2.4%
Jose Peraza 2019 1 320 84.7 17.1 0.3% 4.4% -4.0%
Starling Marte 2019 37 451 87.4 7.4 8.2% 4.3% +3.9%
Miguel Rojas 2019 11 427 87.1 8.8 2.6% 4.3% -1.8%
Adam Frazier 2019 9 484 86.3 12.1 1.9% 4.3% -2.5%
Raimel Tapia 2019 12 326 87.4 7.3 3.7% 4.3% -0.6%
Tyler White 2019 6 165 86.1 12.6 3.6% 4.3% -0.6%
Grayson Greiner 2019 8 140 86.3 11.8 5.7% 4.3% +1.5%
Orlando Arcia 2019 18 393 87.5 6.3 4.6% 4.2% +0.4%
Neil Walker 2019 17 261 86.2 11.7 6.5% 4.1% +2.4%
Martin Prado 2019 1 207 87 8.3 0.5% 4.1% -3.6%
Chris Owings 2019 7 102 86.8 9.1 6.9% 4.1% +2.8%
Luis Urias 2019 7 159 86.7 9.5 4.4% 4.1% +0.3%
Tucker Barnhart 2019 7 235 86.1 11.6 3.0% 4.0% -1.0%
Ehire Adrianza 2019 6 168 85.5 13.6 3.6% 4.0% -0.4%
Luis Rengifo 2019 16 268 86.7 9.1 6.0% 4.0% +2.0%
Juan Lagares 2019 6 186 86.6 9.4 3.2% 4.0% -0.7%
Phillip Ervin 2019 9 175 85.1 14.5 5.1% 3.9% +1.2%
Yolmer Sanchez 2019 4 389 85.6 12.8 1.0% 3.9% -2.9%
Dawel Lugo 2019 10 218 86.9 7.7 4.6% 3.9% +0.7%
Daniel Robertson 2019 2 148 87.3 5.6 1.4% 3.8% -2.5%
Guillermo Heredia 2019 4 147 85.5 12.5 2.7% 3.7% -1.0%
Josh Phegley 2019 8 258 83.7 17 3.1% 3.7% -0.6%
Dexter Fowler 2019 26 350 85.2 13 7.4% 3.6% +3.8%
Ian Kinsler 2019 3 205 83.6 16.8 1.5% 3.6% -2.2%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2019 2 155 86.9 6.5 1.3% 3.6% -2.3%
Leonys Martin 2019 10 161 84.7 14.3 6.2% 3.6% +2.6%
Chris Taylor 2019 15 258 85.2 12.9 5.8% 3.6% +2.2%
Addison Russell 2019 11 160 86.3 8.6 6.9% 3.5% +3.4%
Victor Reyes 2019 4 214 86.4 8 1.9% 3.4% -1.6%
Stevie Wilkerson 2019 8 224 85.7 10.5 3.6% 3.4% +0.2%
Lewis Brinson 2019 6 155 86.1 9 3.9% 3.4% +0.5%
Jose Altuve 2019 34 422 86.1 8.8 8.1% 3.3% +4.7%
Harold Castro 2019 10 274 86.3 7.9 3.6% 3.3% +0.3%
Adam Haseley 2019 6 163 87 4.7 3.7% 3.3% +0.4%
Gerardo Parra 2019 10 218 85.4 10.5 4.6% 3.2% +1.4%
Cesar Hernandez 2019 14 516 85.7 9.3 2.7% 3.1% -0.4%
Jon Berti 2019 7 184 86.6 5.5 3.8% 3.1% +0.7%
Tony Kemp 2019 3 203 84.3 13 1.5% 3.0% -1.5%
Leury Garcia 2019 17 452 86.6 4.8 3.8% 2.9% +0.8%
Ildemaro Vargas 2019 6 178 86.8 3 3.4% 2.8% +0.6%
Jake Marisnick 2019 8 200 85 9.7 4.0% 2.7% +1.3%
Keon Broxton 2019 6 103 85.4 8.2 5.8% 2.6% +3.2%
J.P. Crawford 2019 9 268 84.3 11.4 3.4% 2.6% +0.8%
Albert Almora Jr. 2019 13 284 85.2 8.2 4.6% 2.5% +2.1%
Tim Locastro 2019 2 170 83.4 12.3 1.2% 2.3% -1.2%
Greg Allen 2019 5 183 85.3 7.1 2.7% 2.3% +0.4%
Victor Robles 2019 20 417 81 14.5 4.8% 2.3% +2.5%
Adam Engel 2019 8 150 84.1 10 5.3% 2.1% +3.2%
Kevin Newman 2019 9 434 84.7 8.1 2.1% 2.1% +0.0%
Steven Duggar 2019 8 186 84.7 8 4.3% 2.0% +2.3%
Kolten Wong 2019 10 406 83.6 10.6 2.5% 2.0% +0.5%
Garrett Hampson 2019 8 215 83.2 11.1 3.7% 1.9% +1.8%
David Fletcher 2019 2 534 83.7 9.8 0.4% 1.9% -1.5%
Delino DeShields 2019 6 267 82.9 10.6 2.2% 1.7% +0.5%
Hanser Alberto 2019 14 480 82.8 10.7 2.9% 1.7% +1.2%
Mallex Smith 2019 8 372 84.3 7.2 2.2% 1.6% +0.5%
Jose Iglesias 2019 11 437 84 7 2.5% 1.4% +1.1%
Ender Inciarte 2019 3 159 81.8 9.3 1.9% 1.1% +0.8%
Greg Garcia 2019 6 231 84.7 3.4 2.6% 1.1% +1.5%
Jarrod Dyson 2019 5 317 82 8.9 1.6% 1.0% +0.6%
Mike Freeman 2019 3 126 82 6.6 2.4% 0.5% +1.9%
Richie Martin 2019 5 206 80.5 7.2 2.4% 0.5% +2.0%
Nicky Lopez 2019 5 332 83.8 2.3 1.5% 0.3% +1.2%
SOURCE: Baseball Savant (Statcast)
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Two-time FSWA award winner, including 2018 Baseball Writer of the Year, and 8-time award finalist. Featured in Lindy's magazine (2018, 2019), Rotowire magazine (2021), and Baseball Prospectus (2022, 2023). Biased toward a nicely rolled baseball pant.

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Fromage
4 years ago

As always, an insightful and enjoyable read. May I ask what stats would you recommend to identify plus-plus quality of contact? I’d like to cross-reference contact skills with xbarrel%. Thanks!

1
Alex Chamberlainmember
4 years ago
Reply to  Fromage

I don’t want to pretend I know what a ‘plus-plus’ hit tool or anything looks like – it may have come across that way out of haste – but it seems like the guys with the narrowest launch angle variance were the ones we expected to have plus hit tools or ones that have shown us they possess them. So I would consider it more of a backward application of it.

I kinda wanna dig in to see if there’s any relationship between narrowness of launch angle variance and BABIP. Like, if you have more control over your launch angle, will you have better BABIP outcomes? It seems like the relationship would bear out at both extremes (from my list that’s not published here), with Votto (.349 BABIP career) at the top of this list and Rougned Odor (.274 BABIP career) at the bottom. Maybe launch angle control is a helpful key there! Who knows. Not me.

3